Analyzing Top Picks as 4 Teams Vie for the Championship

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00:00As we look at the big board here with four teams left, it gets a lot tougher.

00:04You know, we don't have that quote-unquote value that you have when the playoffs start.

00:08And, you know, it's hard now.

00:10You know, Florida and Dallas are the favorites because, you know,

00:12they're pretty close to playing each other in this last series.

00:15125 and 190 for the two of them.

00:17Edmonton at 370.

00:19Carolina now at 10-1, down 0-2.

00:22Your thoughts on the big board?

00:24Yeah, I think it's pretty straightforward.

00:26And, you know, we were just discussing things during break.

00:29Like, the best way to go about it is probably to look to one of these alternate markets,

00:33which would be the direct outcome market.

00:35It would be like, okay, you like Dallas over Florida.

00:37You like Florida over Dallas, whatever it might be.

00:39And that's where you're going to be getting a better price.

00:41I'm not going to say it's like some dramatic price.

00:43But if you are looking for Florida over Dallas, you do get it at plus 240,

00:47which is factually better than the plus 125.

00:49It's not some dramatic jump up that you're going to be getting insane value.

00:53But that's the way to go about it.

00:54I would say it also depends on, again, do you have futures in play, whatever it might be.

00:58So, I think that's a fun way to go about it.

01:00And then you could also hedge out when you get to the series.

01:03You get to game five, game six.

01:04If one team's in the spot to close it out, you can take the other side of it.

01:07And you may not come out positive, but you can still come out net even.

01:10Right.

01:10And that, for me, is where you start to look at, you say alternate things to look at.

01:16But the Conn Smythe trophy, which at this point has been up since the playoffs started.

01:22The bigger numbers are gone, obviously, on some of these favorite teams.

01:26Rantanen now is sitting there at the top of the board, followed by Bobrovsky and then Connor McDavid and then Ottinger.

01:32Still a good number on Ottinger, honestly, too, if you like the stars.

01:36I know that Rantanen's had such a big playoff that it's probably hard to get away.

01:40But, you know, all you are is a Stanley Cup final away from Ottinger having two shutouts, you know, potentially against Florida.

01:47And suddenly, and Rantanen not scoring.

01:49And it's a very recency bias sometimes type of award on what's happened lately.

01:54For me, though, Tom, when I look at that, it's Bobrovsky because of the price.

01:59Because I don't know who else on Florida would get at this point.

02:02And you're talking almost two bucks more when you look at the Florida's Cup price and the Bobrovsky-Conn Smythe price.

02:07Right. I also think it comes down to Sam Reinhardt was hurt last night.

02:12Lower body injury. Did not return.

02:15And he's great. Great goal scorer.

02:17Bennett, you know, Barkov, Verhage.

02:19Obviously, Verhage has like 50 points in 59 career playoff games or whatever it is.

02:23Like any of those players could win.

02:25But at a certain point, if they win it and all those players are somewhat the same,

02:28they're just somewhat going to default to Bobrovsky.

02:31Especially when he's played this well.

02:32And it's not just this well in the Carolina series.

02:34He was great when he needed to be in the first two series.

02:37So, it is a better price.

02:39And like I said, I have a ticket on Dallas at 7.5 to 1.

02:42I may have to take a piece of Bobrovsky as some of a hedge.

02:45Because if they win, it's going to be Bobrovsky.

02:48Yeah. And I wouldn't wait too much longer.

02:50Because yesterday was like 570 yesterday.

02:55And then they won last night to go up 2-0.

02:58And you see it dropped into the 300s.

03:00So, it's because he also had another shutout last night too.

03:04So, that's also not sure if you saw this.

03:05This was the third straight May 22nd that he had a shutout in conference playoffs.

03:11Third straight May 22nd that he's had it.

03:13Third straight May 22nd that he's had it.

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