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What to expect from the Fed in 2025
The Street
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1/27/2025
TheStreet’s Conway speaks with Brian Jacobsen, Chief Economist at Annex Wealth Management, about what to expect from the Fed in 2025.
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Sports
Transcript
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00:00
Well, the Federal Reserve is set to hold its first policy meeting of 2025.
00:04
Tell me, what are you expecting to see in terms of interest rates?
00:09
I think that they're probably on pause for this upcoming meeting, mainly because we know
00:14
that they have revised up their inflation expectations for 2025, some by more than others.
00:21
And so I think that really what they want to see is what are the policies that are actually
00:26
being implemented out of the new Trump administration before they decide whether or not they can
00:32
continue with the cutting path.
00:35
My expectation is that come March, they'll probably be in a position to be comfortable
00:40
once again to start cutting, but maybe at a dramatically slower pace than what they
00:46
have been cutting so far.
00:49
So slower pace, how many rate cuts do you think the Fed will deliver in 2025?
00:55
It seems like the market is all over the place with this one.
00:58
It really is.
00:59
The market has gone from, you know, if you think about maybe like four cuts down to one,
01:04
if not zero.
01:05
The Fed itself seems to be penciling in two rate cuts.
01:09
And I think that's a reasonable base case where if we think about where rates are right
01:14
now, they're still higher than what the so-called neutral rate is.
01:20
So monetary policy is still restrictive.
01:23
And I think that they can afford to cut maybe two more times, once in March, and then once
01:29
again in June before they're going to want to take maybe a more prolonged pause.
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