00:00Do you think this is a market that can continue to rally, irregardless of the Fed cuts rates?
00:06The problem that we have now is that we have so much debt that with the interest rates that are currently the way they are,
00:13our interest is now, we're in the negative interest rate situation.
00:16The Federal Reserve is not remitting positive interest payments to the Treasury right now.
00:20Like, that's normal. That's not what's happening right now. We're in a negative situation.
00:24And that will likely continue as we have to refinance this debt.
00:27So the issue is, while we all want cheap cost of capital,
00:31we can't afford to have the interest be the third or fourth largest expense on the Federal Reserve's balance sheet,
00:37or excuse me, the Federal Government's balance sheet behind Social Security and Medicare and the military.
00:41That is not something that we're used to being down 7, 8. It's coming up to 3 or 4.
00:46And that's when you start to see countries that are at a 120% debt to GDP that enters something we call a debt spiral,
00:52where you have to keep refinancing your debt and the interest keeps getting bigger and bigger and bigger.
00:56And eventually, it's impossible to continue to refinance.
00:59So we're not there, but Americans need to take heed and caution that, for one, it takes time to implement AI.
01:06It will take time to monetize.
01:08If you remember, I can give you, like, the dot-com crash as an example.
01:10We had this huge run-up, and we couldn't even sell a bag of dog food.
01:13Pets.com was worth a billion dollars.
01:15So it wasn't until e-commerce was actually created, and then the internet could be monetized, that we then got monetization, and then we leveled out.
01:23So you will always see retrenchment.
01:25You'll always see hyper-exuberance.
01:27And then once monetization reality comes into play, you do see some retraction, retrenchment, until you can get a stable,
01:33okay, this is the operating level that we're going to be at for a while.
01:36And that will continue to grow, but you will see it come back from the highs.
01:40And so that's the issue, is that, yes, we're on the fourth industrial revolution, yes, robotics, quantum computing, AI, blockchain,
01:49all of these technologies are going to give us so much growth opportunity, but they should be able to do that organically
01:55without us hyper-stimulating it through low interest rate policy and massive quantitative easing.
