Ending Russia's war in Ukraine this year is possible, says ex-NATO chief Stoltenberg

euronews (in English)

The former NATO secretary general and the head of the Office of the President of Ukraine outlined to Euronews ways to reach a just and lasting peace in Ukraine.

Transcript

00:00With Ukraine entering the fourth year since the full-scale invasion, tension is turning

00:14to whether an end to the all-out war could come in 2025.

00:19I sat down to discuss it with Andriy Yermak, the head of the Presidential Administration

00:24of Ukraine, and Jens Stoltenberg, former NATO Secretary-General.

00:32Ukraine is entering the fourth year since the invasion in a month, and tension is turning

00:38to whether an end to hostilities could be possible and could come in 2025.

00:43Now, Ukraine's victory plan was presented by Volodymyr Zelensky in 2024 as the key framework

00:49to achieve a just and lasting peace.

00:52Where are we with the peace formula?

00:53Where are we with the plan?

00:54You know, it was very important that during the last year we have the opportunity to realize

01:01this, first of all, initiative of the President, which he announced in the G20 in Bali, its

01:11peace formula.

01:13I want to clarify the peace formula.

01:16It's ten points which necessary implement to have the really opportunity to say that

01:25in juridical sense, in the all-another sense, this war is ended, the just peace restore,

01:35and we settled all the crisis which created this war.

01:41Next, you mentioned the victory plan of President Zelensky.

01:47It's very important, very concrete documents.

01:50What is necessary to do, first of all, for our partners and alliance, to make the position

01:57of Ukraine strong for any potential future negotiations?

02:02It's very important.

02:04Ukraine a victim of aggressions.

02:07We are fighting practically three years against the country who is more than us, who have

02:15the more people, more weapons, and this is nuclear state.

02:20I think all these documents can, it's basic documents in which now in the consultation

02:27with the new administration of the elected President Trump and other alliance, we can

02:34go forward for the concrete steps to prepare, to make position of Ukraine strong, and of

02:42course to go to the end of this war by the just peace.

02:46No more than Ukrainians want to end this war.

02:50Mr. Solberberg, with your tenure at NATO from 2014 to 2024, that's the year of Russia's

02:57first invasion in 2014, and then the full-scale invasion years later.

03:02Do you see we are getting closer to 2025, being able to put an end to it when it comes

03:06to the invasion that started not in 2022, but ten years ago?

03:12Wars are by nature unpredictable, so I'm very careful to predict exactly what will

03:17happen in 2025.

03:19Having said that, it's absolutely within reach to end this war this year, not least because

03:25Russia is paying a very high price.

03:27Yes, the situation is difficult on the battlefield.

03:31Yes, Russia is pushing and gaining some territory, but Russia is also paying a very high price.

03:39You know, this war started, they thought they were able to take Kiev within days and

03:43Ukraine within weeks.

03:45That failed.

03:48The Ukrainians have been able to liberate 50% of the territory that Russia controlled

03:53in the beginning.

03:54They are losing more than 1,000 men per day.

03:58The casualty rate is like 1,000.

04:01Inflation now in Russia is officially around 10%, in reality most likely much higher.

04:08The interest rate in the national bank is 21%, and they have an urgent lack of workforce

04:14because hundreds of thousands, millions have perhaps left the country.

04:20Many are at the front, many casualties, and then many are now working in the defence industries,

04:24so the rest of the economy is really suffering.

04:28So this is not the time to reduce the pressure on Russia.

04:33It's actually the time to step up, to convince them that they have to sit down and negotiate

04:39a just peace, and it's absolutely within reach to convince the United States to continue

04:45the military support to Ukraine.

04:46With Europeans stepping up, that will give Ukraine the military support they need.

04:51To what extent, Mr. Yermak, do you want to see the Europeans stepping up now with the

04:56Americans, ideally, as we're waiting to hear more from the new administration?

05:00First of all, it's necessary to be honest.

05:04Why after the full-scale invasion we with Mike Mayfall decided to create the group for

05:12the sanctions?

05:13Because we saw in the beginning the sanctions which were issued looked very good, but practically

05:22did not work.

05:23The Russian economy is in a bad situation, and it will increase.

05:29It's necessary to continue to work for these sanctions.

05:33But of course, if you ask about the Europeans, President Zelensky was very clear and very

05:39honest in his address yesterday.

05:43We need to keep the unity of Europe.

05:46We absolutely need close cooperation and close unity between European countries and the United States.

05:54And I hope that the meeting between President Zelensky and President Trump will take place

06:01as soon as possible.

06:02But there is, you know, we've heard from Donald Trump during the campaign, so yes, it has

06:07to be looked at as some of the campaign narrative and campaign promises regarding that he would

06:12be able to finish the war in 24 hours, to put an end to it.

06:15Then he, that's the right change we've heard about the first 100 days.

06:19Then we've heard about possibility of rather going into six months.

06:23The views that I've heard are about the anything regarding 24 hours would be the worst case

06:28for Ukraine.

06:29So taking 100 days or six months is a better option for Ukraine.

06:33What do you think?

06:34How can the American administration step in there?

06:36Well, first of all, I think that we need to realize that everyone wants this war to end.

06:43The challenge is that the quickest way of ending a war is to lose a war.

06:47But that will not bring peace.

06:49That will bring occupation of Ukraine.

06:51So the challenge is to end the war in a way that Ukraine prevails as a sovereign independent

06:57nation in Europe.

06:58That's the challenge.

06:59And I don't think we can change Putin's mind.

07:02I believe that Putin has as an ambition to control Ukraine, to put in a puppet government

07:08in Kiev.

07:10But I think we can change his calculus, that if the price he has to pay to achieve that

07:15goal is too high, measured in the number of forces lost on the battlefield every day,

07:21measured in the number of armored vehicles, military equipment lost on the battlefield,

07:27but also measured when it comes to the economic cost, inflation, overheating the economy,

07:34high interest rates, then he may change his calculus and actually be willing and be forced

07:41to sit down and negotiate, agree a just peace for Ukraine.

07:47And the only way to get there, to change his calculus, is to provide weapons to Ukraine.

07:52Do you think we can force Russia to accept that rather than forcing Ukraine to accept

07:58something less favorable for Ukraine?

08:00Look, in this sense, the President Zelensky is very clear.

08:05He never goes for any compromise for the independent territorial integrity and sovereignty of Ukraine.

08:12And why we are talking always that Ukraine need to be strong in any position?

08:19Because honestly, we are fighting practically three years against country which is more

08:27times bigger, more people.

08:31This country not democracy.

08:33Look, Ukraine not ask anything more than described by international law and the treaties which

08:42all the country respect, just for 1%.

08:47And we can explain the arguments, everything which explained in the peace formula in the

08:53victory plan, it's 100% based of the international law.

08:58What kind of security guarantees can we produce when it comes to somehow replacing or substituting

09:05the security guarantees which did not work during the Budapest Memorandum, but also with

09:09the impossibility of having the NATO security guarantees?

09:14Well, I strongly believe that a lasting peace in Ukraine depends on solid security guarantees.

09:25Because the first step towards peace is some kind of ceasefire, at least that's very often

09:31the first step.

09:32And then the line is agreed.

09:35The challenge is that we have seen agreed lines in Ukraine before.

09:40After the annexation of Crimea and Russia went into eastern Donbass in 2014, we got

09:46the Minsk one.

09:48That was a ceasefire line.

09:50The problem was that Russia violated that just after a few months.

09:55And then of course, we need, I say sometimes we need something better than Budapest, but

10:01perhaps it will not be Bucharest, meaning that in Bucharest, NATO promised NATO membership.

10:08In Budapest, we had the Budapest Memorandum that was on some paper and didn't prove credible

10:12at all.

10:13I believe that the strongest and the best security guarantee is Article 5, meaning NATO

10:18membership.

10:20It has worked.

10:22It can work again.

10:23And of course, it's for NATO to decide how far Article 5 apply.

10:30So I strongly believe that one way of ending this war in a credible way, which is not Minsk

10:353, is actually to give strong and credible security guarantees, and then the cleanest

10:41and best way is NATO membership.

10:43Of course, I realize that it is not enthusiasm for this in all capitals.

10:49So then maybe we also have to consider second-best solutions.

10:53And those second-best solutions are first of all, and that will apply anyway, is to

10:58arm the Ukrainians to the teeth.

11:02Because if there was anything we did wrong in 2014, it was that we didn't arm Ukraine

11:07from 2014 until 2022.

11:09Very briefly, I really have a few seconds.

11:11Do you think it was a mistake for Ukraine to give up on nuclear weapons?

11:14I think we have to prove that it was not a mistake, because Andrei is absolutely right,

11:20and that is that if Ukraine loses this war and a nuclear power, Russia, is able to take

11:26control over Ukraine, then the lesson is that you need nuclear weapons to defend yourself.

11:33And it's wrong to give up nuclear weapons.

11:36So that just adds to the importance of us taking the responsibility to provide them

11:41with the weapons they need to defend themselves against nuclear aggression.

11:45Jens Stoltenberg, Andrei Jermak, thank you very much.

11:48Wish we had more time.

11:49Trust me, I have so many questions left on my side too.

11:52I'm sorry.

11:53Thank you very much.

11:54Thanks to the speakers for being here.

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