Houston vs. Kansas City: Expert Game Analysis & Previews

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00:00This number's outrageous, and it's completely wrong.

00:03I think Houston wins this game.

00:05I genuinely do.

00:06I think Stroud found a level of confidence

00:09throughout that game against LA

00:11that he can carry into the game here against Kansas City,

00:13and they can attack early.

00:15And I think for the Chiefs, all of those,

00:18ah, listen, we'll figure it out,

00:20don't worry about it stuff.

00:21Eventually, the reason I harped on it so long

00:24is it comes back to bite you.

00:26There's a lot of people out there

00:27that think this game's going to be 14-0 Kansas City.

00:30A lot of predictions that the Chiefs' first drive

00:32is 1,000% a touchdown drive.

00:34Yeah, I don't expect that.

00:35There's an excellent defense on the other side of field

00:37in the Houston Texans,

00:39a defense you're much better off

00:40trying to run against and throw against.

00:42So if all of a sudden Pat wants to come out

00:44and turn the clock back four or five years,

00:46I don't think that's going to be

00:47as easy as everyone anticipates.

00:50Will Anderson and Danielle Hunter will be able to,

00:53it is the perfect pass rush to have for a team

00:56who is excellent on the interior

00:57and struggles on the exterior

00:59the way that Kansas City does.

01:01We know that the secondary is talented

01:03and bows up as well for Houston.

01:06I expect a close game the entire way

01:09that I legitimately believe Houston wins here today

01:12on the road.

01:12I'm with you, Kev.

01:13I believe Houston's live.

01:14I think it steps up for CJ Stroud to have a big day today.

01:18We saw 282 last week, a touchdown with an interception,

01:21and Nico Collins stepped up as well with seven receptions,

01:25122 yards, and a touchdown.

01:26You look at the games for Kansas City.

01:29We talk about it, 15 and two overall, eight and oh at home.

01:31They've won those games at home, Donnie,

01:34by an average margin of victory of 5.1 points per game.

01:37The two dominant wins at home were New Orleans

01:40on a Monday night.

01:40They laid five and a half.

01:42They won by 13, and you can make an argument

01:44in the game against the Texans

01:45where they laid three and a half and won by eight, right?

01:48The last six games, though, Kev,

01:49when you talk about should this spread be in line,

01:52eight, eight and a half points,

01:54they've won the last six games after the Buffalo game

01:57by an average margin of victory of eight points per game.

01:59It doesn't include the loss, obviously,

02:01with backups to Denver.

02:02And you look at Pat Mahomes.

02:04During those six games, he's averaged 254 passing yards

02:07per game, 11 touchdowns, no interceptions.

02:10But I am concerned about the layoff.

02:12Two, three weeks' time, that quarterback

02:14to wide receiver relationship,

02:16the offensive line might take a quarter or so,

02:18and I believe CJ Stroud, Donnie,

02:20is playing with house money.

02:21He was a little inconsistent in the first quarter.

02:24Once he got going in the second quarter,

02:26he was within rhythm.

02:27I think he carries over today.

02:29Keep an eye out for Nico Collins,

02:31but Dalton Schultz as well could be a next factor.

02:33You're looking at this game for Houston.

02:35Again, I normally would agree.

02:36They're a good football team,

02:37but they're not coming in hitting on all cylinders.

02:39And at the same time, you look at Andy Reid

02:41in the regular season, 21 and four off the bye,

02:43and his career was sensational.

02:44And the only game that he lost to the Pittsburgh Steelers

02:46in the postseason in a division where we had the bye

02:49was I believe it was 2016, like 18 to 16,

02:51something like that.

02:52Outside of that, this is what their MO is.

02:54They have the best defensive coordinator in football

02:56that nobody talks about,

02:57the best play caller slash coach in football,

02:59that's Andy Reid, who dominates, absolutely dominates,

03:02coming off of a bye week here.

03:03And now you're taking a look at a Houston Texans team

03:05that I'm getting a half of a punch.

03:06Picture a boxer in there with a heavy left

03:08and a heavy right going,

03:09I don't even have a right punch today, just all left.

03:11You have Nico Collins.

03:12He's sensational.

03:13That's all you have.

03:14You got Mixon coming into this game,

03:16half one-legged at this point.

03:17Who knows if he's even going to play.

03:19You lost Tank Dell, who was sensational

03:20in the previous game.

03:21If you're telling which, hey,

03:23I would love to match you to have a big game today

03:24because of the parlay I'm going to explain.

03:26But outside of that, one team completely rested and ready

03:29and dominates with a massive home field advantage

03:31in cold weather playing a dome team

03:33that has half of their football team injured

03:35when they need them.

03:36So the thing for me is, right,

03:37I think that all of that,

03:39I understand when we're talking about

03:40the outright perspective of this game.

03:43And I think that there certainly is a world, Donny,

03:44where Houston only scores 17 in this game.

03:47That's probably not enough to win.

03:49It's definitely enough to cover.

03:52Why am I supposed to believe

03:53the Chiefs are going to show up in the playoffs

03:54and have their best offensive game of the season?

03:56That's ridiculous.

03:57I'm sorry.

03:58And I want to make this point to people

03:59because there's a lot of people who think

04:00it's the same thing as last year.

04:01No, it's not.

04:03Last year's offense ranked top 10 in yards per play.

04:08This year's offense was tied with Pittsburgh

04:12for the worst offense in yards per play

04:15to make the postseason

04:16and was eighth worst in the entire NFL.

04:20Oh, but the defense, the defense.

04:22Last year's defense was fifth in opponent yards per play.

04:26This year's defense ranks outside the top five

04:30of teams that made the playoffs.

04:32They are objectively not as good as they were last year.

04:36It is not even close.

04:38It is very disrespectful and disingenuous

04:41to who they were last year

04:43to view this year as a carbon copy.

04:45I know it's the same guys at the top in Andy Reid

04:50and Pat Mahomes and Kelsey,

04:53but they're not performing at the same level.

04:56They just aren't.

04:58And I think ultimately, while we can say

05:01Houston does not have that 100% full deck,

05:05that is absolutely true.

05:07But I don't think Houston's MO,

05:10they're not, you know what, Donny?

05:11This isn't last year's Houston.

05:14Last year's Houston was 31, 35, 38, light it up.

05:17This year's Houston needs Stroud to make a couple of plays,

05:21maybe with the legs like he did last week,

05:23and that defense has to step up and turn Mahomes over.

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