Bertahan di Level 7.000, IHSG Masih Cenderung Bergerak Stagnan

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IHSG -0,04% ke 7.080,50 di sesi I Rabu (8/1) dan cenderung stagnan. Sektor energi +0,97% CUAN +11,38% dan sentuh level intraday tertinggi di Rp14.025 per saham atau melesat 6.127,27% sejak IPO. Sektor barang konsumen primer + 0,45% ICBP +2,29%. Sektor barang baku -1,92% MDKA -5,30%. Sektor teknologi -1,06% GOTO -1,25%. Sektor barang konsumen non primer -0,61% ACES -4,08%.

Transcript

00:00Thank you for joining us in this segment, we will review the movement in the GASAM community throughout today's trade.

00:14And we remind you again, you can still join our interactive WhatsApp at 0812.8788.723, as shown on your television screen later.

00:24And right now we are connected via Zoom with Mr. Hari Suwanda, who is the CEO of Akela Trading System.

00:32Mr. Hari, good afternoon. How are you?

00:36Good afternoon, Mr. D.

00:40Thank you, Mr. Hari, for taking the time to be on IDA Channel.

00:43Today, the GASAM community is moving again.

00:47It was opened in 7083, the highest intraday today at 7100.

00:52There was a deep correction earlier, but the current position is back to the level or approaching the opening level this morning.

01:01What is your analysis?

01:03Yes, so the IHSG is currently experiencing quite a sharp correction.

01:14And this is quite a long time, because it started from October until now.

01:20So if we look at it, starting from September, even September until now, the IHSG is down trend.

01:28And because of that, today it is trying to experience strengthening, but there are many things that are still not conducive to it.

01:41Both from abroad and from within the country.

01:46So what happens is that it stagnates like this.

01:49But hopefully in the future it can get better.

01:54So from abroad, it has been explained by IDA Channel that the data in America shows a much better job opening than expected, 8.1 million.

02:08And this implies that with that, the inflation is worried that it will not immediately fall to the 2% deficit target,

02:19so the chance of the deficit to break the bond should be at the time of the FOMC last September,

02:27in 2025 it should break four times.

02:30But because the inflation is not like what was projected in September,

02:37it turns out that the inflation is still rather tight, resulting in the FOMC last December,

02:43it was revised to break the bond only twice.

02:46Well, if the bond is only twice, while there is a lot of equity there that has been published for quite a long time,

02:56this makes them profit-taking quite deep last night.

03:01And that sentiment also seems to color the IHSG movement today.

03:09Meanwhile, from within the country itself, we know that there is a very successful SRBI fund,

03:20and this draws a lot of liquidity there.

03:24So what happens is that it drains liquidity now, both from the government's obligation and from the IHSG.

03:33Mr. Hari, Indekargasam Kabungan has tried several times to break above the 7,100 level,

03:38but it seems that this position is not yet able to be maintained when it returns to the 7,000 level.

03:46From a technical point of view, what is your opinion on the Indekargasam Kabungan's movement

03:52that is not yet able to survive the 7,100 level?

03:57There are many resistance, Mr. Dave.

03:59So the first resistance is, as you said, the 7,100 level.

04:06Then the 7,200 level is the second resistance.

04:11If I say, the more crucial or more vital to be broken out before it succeeds in confirming that this correction has been completed,

04:26it is at the 7,200 level.

04:29And especially when it succeeds in breaking out the resistance at the 7,530 level.

04:38The 7,530 level is the key to determining whether this bear market has been completed or not.

04:48Sorry, it's not a bear market.

04:50This is a deep correction.

04:53Deep correction, if you say bear market, it means it continues.

04:59But the key is here.

05:02Whether it succeeds in breaking out the 7,530 level.

05:06And for that, the 7,200 level must be broken out first.

05:10The resistance is there.

05:13From the analysis of the technical movement of Indekargasam Kabungan, we move to the sector.

05:18In the first session this afternoon, energy is again leading the strength.

05:22If we review this throughout 2024, energy has experienced a significant increase, even the highest.

05:31Today, it is supported by several stocks.

05:33Among them, there is Cuan, a stock from Rayogo Pangestu Group.

05:37Where Cuan today is 12.20% stronger.

05:41Intraday used to be stronger, above 13%.

05:43The highest Intraday level today was created at 14,025.

05:48If we compare it with the price of IPO, the increase is already above thousands of percent, it seems.

05:54What is your analysis and recommendation for Cuan in the midst of significant strength that continues?

06:02In the short term, it is prone to profit-taking if the condition is like this.

06:07So I can't.

06:10That's why when I'm next to him, I don't show this Cuan stock.

06:17Because it is not recommended if it has experienced such strength.

06:26It is very prone to profit-taking.

06:31So it is very overbought from a technical point of view.

06:37And if you are among the investors who already have this stock,

06:42then just increase the trailing stop.

06:47If there is a reverse direction, it's done.

06:51Please profit-taking.

06:53Okay, what is the trailing stop level for Cuan?

06:58Trailing stop at level 11,600 and 12,143.

07:04So the first one, the top one is 12,143.

07:09If it goes down, it is the first sign of profit-taking.

07:15Then after that, it is 11,600.

07:19If it goes down below the key point that I have explained,

07:26it is a signal for profit-taking.

07:29Or even profit-taking has already started there.

07:32Okay, the closing position at 13,800 is strong at 12.20%.

07:38And again, the investment decision is still in the hands of the ADA channel.

07:43Let's move to another energy stock, sir.

07:46We will go to Raja.

07:48Mr. Hari, today it is going down at 2.58%.

07:52The highest intraday level today is at 3,800.

07:55I also tried to preview, sir.

07:57At 3,800, Raja is also the highest intraday created.

08:02According to the big momentum,

08:04Raja is now the king in the IPO of FIQ Indonesia.

08:09What is your analysis for Raja?

08:11Is the reversal still reasonable after it reached 3.8% today?

08:15Yes, this pattern shows the characteristics of profit-taking.

08:23When this stock opened today at level 3,680,

08:30it even went up to 3,800.

08:33But it can't stay true.

08:37At 3,800, it was used by the market or investors

08:47who have made significant profits from this stock for profit-taking.

08:52As a result, there was a selling pressure until the closing.

08:57And finally, this stock was closed and weakened.

09:01Whereas at the opening, it strengthened significantly.

09:06So, profit-taking has actually started if the condition is like this.

09:11What does support and resistance mean?

09:17Support means the resistance that succeeded in the breakout yesterday.

09:22And that is at...

09:33When there is resistance, it now changes to support.

09:39And that is at 2,970.

09:41Okay.

09:42For Raja, it went down to 2,58% at 3,400.

09:46Can we review the IPO for Ratu today?

09:50Although technically, it is not yet shown,

09:54but today it is at 24,78%, 14,35% closing position.

10:01And the response from the market players is also quite enthusiastic

10:04to experience an oversubscription of more than 300 times.

10:07How do you see the response from the market players for Ratu?

10:14In the short term, this strengthening may still continue, Mr. Dave.

10:21Yes.

10:22But again, we have to wait until the trend has formed.

10:29Then we will see what the support and resistance are like.

10:34At this stage, it is purely based on sentiment.

10:38Yes.

10:39Because looking at the financial data, the potential is good, positive,

10:43and even oversubscribed.

10:45So what happens is it gives a positive sentiment.

10:52So when it hits the ground on the first day, it is immediately directed,

10:56immediately auto-rejected.

10:59What is the recommendation like, sir?

11:03I don't recommend trading or buy and hold for Ratu.

11:13Why? Because in terms of valuation, it is not really undervalued.

11:18So there is no recommendation from me, Mr. Dave.

11:22Okay.

11:23For Ratu, a new investor today who experienced an auto-reject

11:27and the response from the market players is also quite positive.

11:30And hopefully it can be a reference for you.

11:33Mr. Hari, we will not delay any longer.

11:35Later we will try to see what other examples you recommend

11:38and at the same time update the closing of trading in the second session today.

11:41And we will be back shortly.

11:43See you soon.

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