Dibayangi Profit Taking Saham Big Caps, Laju IHSG Tertahan ke 7.800

IDXchannel

IHSG +0,01% ke 7.735,97 sesi I Jumat (18/10) usai menyentuh level intraday di 7.790. Sektor barang konsumen primer +0,93% INDF +2,79%, sektor properti +0,89% LPKR +11,61%, sektor infrastruktur +0,62% ISAT 2,07%. Sektor barang baku +0,16% PSAB dan BRMS kembali melesat ditengah harga emas rekor diatas USD2.700.

Transcript

00:00Thank you for joining us, and in this segment we will review how the trade is going throughout the day.

00:12And we remind you that you can still participate in our interactive WhatsApp at 0812-8788-3723 as shown on the television screen later.

00:23And today we are joined by Mr. Ahmad Yakiye, who is our Head of Online Trading and Technical at BCA Securities.

00:31We will go straight to Mr. Yaki. Good afternoon. How are you, sir?

00:35Good afternoon.

00:37Thank you, Mr. Yaki, for taking the time to be on IDX Channel.

00:41I don't think Mr. Yaki has been back to business on the weekend.

00:46In today's intraday, the share price was at IDR 7,790.

00:51Only a few points left for IDR 7,800.

00:55However, the level has been maintained for the time being.

01:00Overall, how is your review of the ISK in a week?

01:06Yes.

01:07Actually, the movement has increased by 3% compared to the previous week until today.

01:12The level is at IDR 7,754, so it's more or less around 3%.

01:16So actually, this increase has also been in line with our projections yesterday and today.

01:21We have also projected that if the ISK is still not strong above IDR 7,800, it is better to take a profit first.

01:27Because the increase over the past 2-3 days has been significant.

01:33Because we are still waiting for some data that has been released from the US.

01:41The data itself has been released from Indonesia.

01:44Maybe we will wait for the appointment of the new president, Mr. Prabowo and Mr. Gibran.

01:48So it's actually more positive.

01:52But what needs to be explained is that the level of IDR 7,800 to IDR 7,825, if it's not strong, it's better to take a profit first.

01:57Later there will be a correction for the economy support at IDR 7,650.

02:05Okay, Mr. Yaki.

02:06Today, from the sentiment side, the growth of China's economy in the third quarter has been released.

02:14There are certain aspects, among which are more likely to still experience a delay, Mr. Yaki.

02:21How do you see this position?

02:24When it's still slowing down, we hope that foreigners will return to the domestic market.

02:30But it seems that the Chinese government is signaling to prepare a bigger stimulus.

02:38From the news, the Chinese government is planning to prepare a bigger stimulus.

02:43But they don't know how much and when it will be released.

02:48So it seems that foreign investors still haven't seen the direction clearly.

02:54So if we look at it, the foreign info in the US is still quite large.

02:59Above 1 trillion, around 1.1 or 1.2 trillion.

03:02So the indication is still that the foreign info is still quite good for Indonesia itself.

03:07Because in SBN it's still quite good.

03:09So it shouldn't be too worrying.

03:11Because the figure is still unknown.

03:13And if we look at the new presidential election, the market is more positive.

03:21Mr. Yaki, on the sector side, Mr. Yaki, the Big Cap Bank is moving in a mixed direction.

03:27After yesterday, Compaq supported the strengthening of the shareholding index.

03:31In a moment, some Big Cap Bank shares will be released in the third quarter of 2024.

03:38Where is the direction of this Samsam movement, sir?

03:40The branch of Kinerja and also the expectation of the Sekopo bankruptcy?

03:46If we look at Kinerja, the closest one is BCI.

03:49It should be between today and Monday.

03:52But it's possible that today is a bit late.

03:54So if we look at the estimation, if we look at the data from August 2024,

03:59the growth is already quite good.

04:01The interest rate is still around 8%.

04:05And if we look at the interest rate, it's still quite high, around 30 trillion.

04:10So it's still quite interesting for BCI to continue to grow.

04:15So in my opinion, it's still quite good.

04:17Because the previous Suku Bunga investor, sorry,

04:21the BIR is still maintained.

04:23So there is still room for the premium to be maintained.

04:26So it's not too worrying.

04:27And if we look at the previous 8-month CQC,

04:30BCI should be the best.

04:31Compared to other big banks.

04:33Okay.

04:34Is this reflected in the technical movement?

04:37We will try to review from the technical side for BCI, sir.

04:40Today, it was strong at 0.70%.

04:42Just now it reached 10,875.

04:45Closing at 10,800, something like this.

04:49How do you see the opportunity for BCI to return to 10,900

04:54when from Kinerja, as you said earlier,

04:58this is proven, sir.

04:59It's still good compared to other big banks.

05:03From today's program,

05:05it seems that the potential for BCI to break through the level of 10,900 to 11,000 is interesting.

05:10Because indeed, after the release report in the third quarter itself,

05:16if we look at it, the pattern is still quite bullish.

05:18And if tomorrow the trend is at 11,000 and can break,

05:21BCI should be able to reach the level of 11,200 to 11,300.

05:25So the bullish potential of BCI is still quite good for the momentum.

05:29And the support, if it's still buy-on support for the lower areas,

05:32it's still in the area of 10,400-10,500.

05:34For buyback again, if it's correct.

05:36Okay.

05:37The position now is at 10,800, strong at 0.70%.

05:41There is still room for 10,900.

05:45Then, the buyback level was also explained when the profit-taking action for BCI took place.

05:51We move on to the next bank.

05:53There is BMRI, Mr. Ayaki.

05:56Today, BMRI is going down, sir.

05:59After it touched 7,300.

06:02It also tried to approach the highest level above 7,400.

06:07Any analysis for BMRI?

06:09BMRI is actually more likely because of the profit-taking action yesterday.

06:13Because yesterday it also increased by 3.2%.

06:16Today it also rose to the level of 7,300.

06:19So the profit-taking is still quite strong.

06:22And even if it's buy-on support, it's still interesting for buy-on support in the area of 7,050-7,100 for buyback again.

06:30Because the trend is still quite bullish if we look at the movement from now, 2024 until today.

06:34Okay. The opportunity to reach 7,400, Mr. Ayaki, after today's intraday, was able to reach 7,300.

06:41Yes, it should be.

06:43If you look at the movement from the end of the year to the end of the year,

06:45it is still possible to reach the area of 7,450-7,625.

06:50Okay. 7,450-7,625.

06:55Today's closing at 7,175.

06:58Weakened by 0.69%.

07:00For BBRI, Mr. Ayaki, again, unable to survive today at the level of 5,000.

07:06Part 9, 70 closing.

07:09Yes, BBRI does have quite a lot of correction.

07:13But if we look at the movement, it's actually more interesting for BRI for buy-on support.

07:16Because BRI is still heavy to go back to above 5,000-5,075.

07:21So the potential for buy-on support is more interesting for BRI.

07:24We keep it in the area of 49-49,440.

07:28Later, we can buyback even bigger in the area of 48-48,220.

07:33Because indeed, 48,220, if you look at the movement, it's quite strong since the middle of June, 2024.

07:40So there is a possibility that if it touches the area of 48-48,850,

07:44the potential is quite good for BRI.

07:46So if you want to buyback, it can be in the area of 49-49,440.

07:50If you want to wait below, it can be in the area of 48-48,850.

07:53So it's not strong enough to go up, but it's interesting for buy-on support for BBRI.

07:58But it looks like ASING is still quite eager to sell for BBRI, compared to other pick-up banks.

08:05Yes, because ASING looks, maybe from a fundamental point of view,

08:08the energy will be more stressed, with the heavy EMKM sector still growing.

08:14And for us, the NPL is also quite high, that's why they do a lot of reserves.

08:19So this makes the debt increase, and the growth is only small.

08:23In Q3, the debt only grew by 4-5%.

08:32So maybe this is what makes ASING worried.

08:36Okay, next for BBRI. Mr. Yaki, today the interest rate is 2.73%, 5,650.

08:43Today's closing level is the highest intraday.

08:48Yes, if you look at the movement, it should be interesting if BBRI tomorrow can break above 5,650.

08:55Because there is potential for BBRI to return to the area of 58-5,900.

08:59But if BBRI fails to break below 5,650, the profit will be in the area of 4-5,450 for BNI.

09:11Okay, analysis from Sam Sam Bank, the pick-up bank that is moving differently today.

09:16When it was different the day before, it became a supporter of Sam Kabungan.

09:20And again, the investment decision is still in the hands of IDX Channel.

09:25From the financial sector, we move to the steel sector.

09:30Mr. Yaki, where Sam Sam, the gold producer, has been growing fast these days.

09:34Although some have also experienced profit-taking, because they have experienced a significant increase.

09:40Your analysis for the gold price movement, where will it go, Mr. Yaki?

09:45Yes, if we look at the gold price movement itself, I think it's pretty good.

09:48Because if we look at the spot itself, it's still quite bullish with the next spot in the area of IDR 2,636 per try-on.

09:57So, in terms of the spot price, I'm still optimistic that it can reach the level of IDR 2,900 to IDR 3,000.

10:04So, the bullish trend of gold is still quite maintained, as long as it maintains above the level of IDR 2,600 to IDR 2,670.

10:11Among the emitters in this sector, Mr. Yaki, some are focused on gold, while others are diversified in other commodities.

10:24I would like to go to PSAB first, Mr. Yaki.

10:26PSAB today is strong at 10.84% at IDR 3,680.

10:30Intraday today at IDR 3,980.

10:33And it looks like this is also the highest level of PSAB in recent years.

10:40Yes, PSAB actually has risen quite a lot.

10:45When we recommended it, it was still in the area of IDR 3,226.

10:50And even today, it can already rise above IDR 3,960, but it dropped above IDR 3,680.

10:57This is actually a better way to take profit.

10:59Because if PSAB fails to survive above IDR 3,620, there is a potential for PSAB to test its support in the area of IDR 3,400 to IDR 3,500.

11:06So the support potential is quite far too.

11:08So you have to be careful for those who are planning PSAB.

11:10It should be observed that the level of IDR 3,620 should not break.

11:13Because if it breaks or falls, it can go back to IDR 3,400 to IDR 3,500.

11:16But the result is still quite far.

11:18It is close to IDR 3,700 to IDR 3,900.

11:21And if it can still exceed IDR 4,000 again, there is a potential for PSAB to reach IDR 4,200.

11:26Okay, the closing today at IDR 3,680 is 10.84%.

11:31And again, the investment decision is still in the hands of IDR Channel.

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