Baltimore vs. Cleveland: NFL Game Analysis & Prediction

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00:00Baltimore and Cleveland it's a beauty. 19 and a half points. I don't want to hear

00:07about the totals. I don't want to hear about props. We will get to it all. Talk

00:13to me about the Baltimore Ravens flirting with a 20-piece here on this

00:20spread today. Leecey I begin with you. It's a big one. It is but they covered

00:24that big line on the road in MetLife about a few weeks ago against the New

00:29York Giants 16 and a half. They won that ballgame by 20 plus. Lamar Jackson had a

00:33290 yard performance. You're talking about a team that's 11 and 5 straight up.

00:37They're 5 and 2 at home. They've won three straight games Kev. By an average

00:41margin of victory of 22 and a half points per game. They've won their home

00:44games by an average margin of victory of 16.2 points per game. On the flip side

00:49you have a dead and buried Cleveland Browns team. They've lost five straight by

00:53an average margin of defeat guys of 14.8 points per game. 0 and 5

00:58against the number during that span and 1 and 7 straight up on the road.

01:04Okay and they've lost those seven games by an average margin of defeat of 12.8

01:08points per game and we know Bailey Zappi is on their center. It was a pathetic

01:12performance against the Miami Dolphins last week. That being said three

01:16touchdowns last week of the regular season when you know that this team has

01:20already made the playoffs. I understand they need the game but these are still

01:23professional athletes. Bailey Zappi I think can chuck it. You got John Kelly

01:28the former Charger and and Tennessee Vile that'll potentially take over the

01:32running back duties for Jerome Ford. I think they're live. I mean again live

01:37from the spread aspect. Cleveland plus 19 and a half. I do lean to the

01:42total but I'm taking the Browns. I just think it's way too many points in terms

01:46of this type of matchup. It's hard and again the line does dictate this because

01:49we're not asking you who's gonna win this football game. I think it's a

01:51formality. We know the Baltimore Ravens can win this and should win this but

01:54we've seen crazier things happen. But that 19 and a half indicates that I

01:58think we're understanding that the Cleveland Browns know what this game

02:01means. They have three wins. They're not trying to get the four wins. If they were

02:04James Winston, James Winston would be in here a quarterback and they'd be

02:07spinning it all over the place. They even said this week like we're not even

02:10gonna go with our previous starter. We want to get looks at players. That's

02:13quote-unquote for we are tanking this game but the NFL sees we're getting

02:17looks at players so we're gonna be just fine. Also understand how they're gonna

02:20dictate some of these plays because I talk about this all the time. The players

02:23they will not tank this football game but let me understand this. Third and

02:27nine from the 39-yard line. Let's draw up something that's gonna get a six, seven

02:30yards, maybe a first down. You know what they do now? Hand the football off on a

02:33normal zone action play. Get two yards and punt the football. Hey we tried. They

02:37want to put our quarterback in a bad situation or how about this? You get down

02:40inside the five-yard line. It's fourth and one. You kick the field goal as

02:44opposed to going for the touchdown because you actually want to win this

02:46game. That's the way it plays out. If I'm betting this side, do I want to take

02:5019 after 20? No. First half will be all you need to see because the one thing

02:54you do know is the Ravens will be full gas until they don't need to be and this

02:58common misperception, well they might get rest. How many times you watch an NFL

03:01game about four touchdowns in the fourth quarter and those players are still out

03:04there? Maybe not aggressive but they're still playing. So the notion of Lamar is

03:07gonna be up 21 to three at the half and you won't see him or Derrick Henry in

03:10the second half is ridiculous. I will tell you when I saw this game I started

03:15to get real excited because I love taking points. It's just it's where I am

03:20in my in my life as a better at this moment. There's all developments. I know

03:25that I've I know that you've talked about I used to only do size and I used

03:29to bet only Mac totals right and whatever it might be. I love the chance

03:33to bet points. My favorite bet of the whole bowl season was the biggest dog of

03:37the whole bowl season in Washington State. One of my favorite NFL sides of

03:40the year. The Giants against these Ravens. I'm not betting this side but

03:46I'm pretty sure Baltimore covers this number. As ridiculous as that sounds to

03:50say about an NFL team, I'm not even sure the number like you know I want to sit

03:55up here do spread math and tell you this thing's inflated. I think this number is

03:58depressed because they can't hang 21 and a half because it's an NFL game. You can't

04:04do that. I'm pretty sure they should because one of the reasons is and maybe

04:08I'm shot. I think the roster the Browns are putting out today isn't as good as

04:13what the Giants put out that game that I think you're right and that was on the

04:16road. Mind you, tax 16 and a half. I thought it was a good number. I really

04:21did. The other thing is we talk about the motivation for Baltimore and that's

04:26one end of it. Baltimore is well rested. You know, that Christmas game was a

04:30Wednesday. So that mini by Lisa, you know, I love me a good mini by here. I

04:36think the other part of it is and I similar to you. I expect some points in

04:40this game, but what's the number the Browns have to score for you to be like

04:45perfect. We got it. I think there's a world Baltimore today touches 4040. I

04:51think they could if it's 40 they'll get blown out and then you're right.

04:54Baltimore doesn't covers the number. I would say 27 I think is the area, but

05:01then that leans to the younger. I just believe again 19 and a half. I'm willing

05:05to take a shot over two touchdowns at a field goal in that type of situation.

05:09Granted, no Jerome Ford, you're limited in terms of your offensive weapons. They

05:13scrape badly zappy off the street basically. But again, you know what? New

05:17England, he was a gamer right now. That was a different scheme that we're gonna

05:22see today. But still, I still think there's no doubt Baltimore wins. It's

05:27just how do they win? They could be up 24 to 3. You get a late touchdown in the

05:32fourth quarter. You got 24 to 10 and you get the back door swinging wide open. I

05:36just I understand that they looked absolutely pathetic against the Miami

05:40Dolphins. That was a game with a backup quarterback. They should have at least

05:43been within margin catching six and a half, especially at home. You got you

05:47got nothing. They were dead to the dental rights from an offensive

05:51perspective. But again, that defense isn't all that bad. I know all the

05:54starters aren't gonna be out there, but I'm still gonna take a shot. My best

05:58pick in this and I love totals is the is the Browns plus the 19 and a half.

06:03The tough part about also the gauges. This is the last game of the year for

06:06Cleveland. They're on the road. They're already on to next year. They're trying

06:10not to win this football game. It is an organization and it makes sense. It's a

06:12good business decision, but also understand the business decisions by the

06:16players on defense themselves outside of miles. Garrett wants to hunt sacks. What

06:19are we actually playing for here? Like Denzel Woods, their best defensive

06:22back. Like, dude, you're not even coming on the trip this week. So you have

06:24legitimately, Joe, three cornerbacks ranked in the bottom 100s that are

06:29gonna line up against this team going full blast trying to take you out as

06:32quickly as possible.

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