Penn State vs. SMU Opening Game Analysis & Predictions

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00:00We focus on the opening game of three on this Saturday in State College, Pennsylvania.

00:08The six-seed Penn State hosting the 11-seed SMU, an eight-and-a-half point spread in favor

00:14of the Nittany Lions, a total that has worked its way down ever so slightly on this Saturday

00:19morning to 52.

00:21And Kev, right before the break, we were comparing the quarterbacks, Kevin Jennings for SMU,

00:26who has been great since taking over following that BYU loss earlier in the year full-time.

00:32Drew Aller has been the guy in State College for two years, make it three, as he will return

00:38in 2025.

00:39He has been fine in spots.

00:43He was okay against Oregon.

00:45How good will he have to be today against the Staines defense that does allow some yardage

00:50through the air?

00:51Forgive me for laughing, but in all seriousness, just to my Oregon point earlier.

00:56That game had people on the timeline be like, this kid's got all the chops, top five pick.

01:02Just so everyone understands the level of the Oregon defense this year.

01:06With that being said, I really liked the over in this game at 52-and-a-half.

01:09I think both of these teams' best path to success is throwing the football in this game.

01:15The more passed attempts we get, more explosive plays, less of the clock, running, running,

01:20running.

01:21Don't worry a little about the SMU run defense holding up.

01:25Just because Penn State could be a different caliber, you think back to last night.

01:30The three best rush defenses on a yards-per-carry statistics, Ole Miss, Indiana, SMU, obviously

01:39give up a 98-yarder, so maybe IU was benefited again from the schedule.

01:43SMU could be the same, but I think it means Aller has to throw, and I know Jennings has

01:48to throw.

01:49And again, I mentioned the USC and the Minnesota games.

01:52USC's offense moved it no problem, Minnesota's offense moved it no problem, I mean the Ducks

01:57are still scoring in that Big Ten title game, quite frankly.

02:01And again, look at SMU, SMU, you know, 30-plus every single game, they're going out there

02:07and playing, and what I do really like, and what I saw in the Clemson game, is I'm not

02:11going to get quit.

02:12Right?

02:13Right.

02:14Is they're not going to do what Signetti did yesterday, which was fold up and ask to be

02:16anywhere else in the world than on the sideline coaching against Notre Dame.

02:20Yeah.

02:21SMU's not going to do that.

02:22They're not gutless like that Indiana team is, so I really, and I'm going to keep saying

02:26that too, because he deserves every word of it.

02:27He really does.

02:28What an embarrassment.

02:29And I like guys who talk their stuff, but just don't show up and do that.

02:32Go for every fourth down.

02:34Like Dan, if Dan Campbell would have then stepped in and called the plays for Signetti,

02:37you can tell I'm still hot about it.

02:39Indiana would have been in a much better place.

02:40I really love the over in this game, Leecey, Penn State, SMU.

02:43You might get it.

02:44We talk about styles, so SMU pushes tempo, and that's something that Ohio, Penn State

02:50struggle with against Oregon.

02:52That tempo type of offense.

02:53Now, I will say, if we're looking quarterbacks and you talk about the success of Drew Aller,

02:58yes, he throws for .226 in the Big Ten Championship, but Penn State also rushed for .292 on the

03:03ground, right?

03:04So things were wide open when you're running the football with Singleton and Katron Allen.

03:08If they have that type of success today, they're going to steamroll SMU, cover this number

03:13fairly easy.

03:14You know, that's easier said than done.

03:16But for Aller, we haven't really seen him break out, like I said, outside those two

03:21performances against Kent State and USC.

03:23In the USC game, they trailed in the first half of that matchup like 20-7 or 20-3.

03:29They weren't come from behind mode each and every step of the way.

03:32So again, you might get the over.

03:34I just believe that the more balanced offense is SMU, and we saw Cade Klubnick attack that

03:40secondary over the top.

03:41I think that is the recipe to potentially beat SMU, but I'm not sold on Drew Aller and

03:47Penn State's consistency offensively to do that.

03:51The Nittany Lions are a top-20 defense across the board.

03:54Kevin Jennings for SMU, at least 225 passing yards in all nine ACC contests this year.

04:01You saw his prop.

04:02It is right at that number.

04:04He is averaging basically .286 throughout conference action this season.

04:09Penn State has only allowed two quarterbacks over .225 and a hook.

04:13Conor Bazelak of Bowling Green and Dylan Gabriel in the Big Ten Championship game.

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