Texas Longhorns Lead as Favorites in First 12-Team Playoff

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00:00The debate that has followed Texas for most of this season.

00:03Should it be Quinn? Should it be Arch? It is a question that

00:06Steve Sarkeesian has one more week to answer, as Texas will

00:11host Clemson as the largest favorite of the opening round of

00:14the first ever 12 team college football playoff next Saturday

00:18afternoon. The Longhorns are an 11 and a half point favorite

00:22against the Tigers. We still presume that Quinn Ewers will be

00:25the starter even if he hasn't or will not be 100% healthy. I

00:31would expect to see more of Arch Manning outside of just being a

00:35power quarterback on short distance running plays. But it

00:39is really interesting with some of the odds and how they stack

00:42up in the first ever 12 team college football playoff. We

00:46have multiple rounds, not just the semifinal matchups in a

00:49championship game. So we get some betting markets that we do

00:53not often see. And Quinn Ewers has by far the shortest price to

00:58lead the college football playoff in passing yardage total

01:02at plus 144. Not only because he is still a talented quarterback

01:07for Texas, but because the path for the Longhorns, Kev, is still

01:11pretty favorable, where you would expect Texas to at least

01:14reach the semifinal and additional game playing in that

01:17opening round. How do you read that market and what the

01:20decision will ultimately be at the quarterback spot for the

01:22Longhorns? Yeah, look, they're, they're going to stick with

01:25when you were so I think the worry about backing Quinn at

01:29that price is, if he did struggle massively, they might

01:34go to arch. I think it's more the injury element there, though,

01:37where I just think we kind of know we don't have ourselves a

01:40fully 100% healthy player all in all there. And, you know, that

01:46makes for an interesting situation. But I think also,

01:49Joe, you don't really have, you know, Quinn has this plus 144

01:53number because of who Texas is and the price, but you kind of

01:57look at it. Nothing here's clear cut. Like I think Beck would

02:00probably have been the favorite had he been healthy, right? But

02:03look at where Stockton is at 14 to one. That's not a price

02:06because they're like, Oh, Stockton's awesome. They're

02:08like, well, Georgia's playing in the next round. And there's a

02:11level of security that comes with that type of right. So you

02:13really need Gunnar Stockton if he does play if you're booking

02:16them at the 14 to one price to really throw for basically 300

02:20and international title game. So that's why when I look at this

02:24board, and it is intriguing, we don't get this, we see this on

02:27the NFL side. Yeah, we don't see it on the on the college side

02:30enough. And it's great. Where can we pick off value? So I you

02:33know, I hone in on a couple of players, you know, Nico at 40 to

02:37one. And if you believe that potentially Tennessee could

02:41strike the upset over Ohio State, they do face off against

02:45Oregon. It's it's, you know, to Kevin's point, they might be

02:48maybe three and a half four point dogs. In terms of that

02:51matchup. We know they're still a run heavy type of offense

02:54averaging well over 200 yards per game. But we saw Nico break

02:58out from the passing perspective in the 13 point win, or 12 point

03:02win over Vanderbilt. They're going to need them to throw

03:05right. So if you believe Texas, Tennessee, big picture is going

03:09to be there. He has great value at 40 to one. The other player

03:13that I would look at is Dylan Gabriel at plus 680. I mean,

03:16talking about the number one team in the country. Well, you

03:19know, whoever they play in terms of that first round game, they're

03:22gonna have to chuck it. And if they do win, now you have

03:25potentially best quarterback on the best team

03:27and two of his best games this year for Gabriel 283 and four

03:30touchdowns in the Big 10 title against Penn State 341 and two

03:35passing scores, three total touchdowns against Ohio State. I

03:39like the number on Dylan Gabriel.

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