A look at AccuWeather's winter forecast for 2024-2025

AccuWeather

With meteorological winter here, AccuWeather's long-range expert Paul Pastelok was live on the AccuWeather Network to discuss the winter forecast on Dec. 9.

Transcript

00:00Joining us right now is AccuWeather lead long-range expert meteorologist Paul Pasek.

00:04And you know, Paul, you and I worked together along with Joe Lumberg, the crystal ball,

00:08and we talked about how, woof, December was going to get off to a very cold start,

00:14but then it was going to turn mild. And when I take a look at your updated forecast for the winter,

00:20you know, for someone that likes the cold and likes it snowy, this doesn't exactly make me

00:24all that happy. Well, I was sweating it out a little bit because there was no forecast

00:29models whatsoever showing that it was going to be cold to start off in December back in September.

00:34And we looked at all the teleconnections, we kind of looked at past years, and we felt that

00:38at the end of November into early December, there was a chance that we could get a charge of cold,

00:43puts us in a hole here in December, a negative departure, some places 10 to 14 degrees below,

00:48but then it reverses. We're going to see waves of these kind of colds throughout the winter season,

00:52and that's why we still have a mild overall look, Bernie, to the forecast. We think there's ups and

00:57downs, and we've got some ups coming over the next couple of weeks, temperature-wise.

01:01I have to ask you, Paul, when you talk about teleconnections, that means the weather in one

01:04part of the country then influences the weather. You got me on the little slide there. On another

01:10part of the country, what were you looking at in September, and what were you looking at that

01:16made you feel like, uh-oh, look out, early December looks cold to me. What was it that you saw?

01:21We were looking not just in the country, we were looking on the other side of the globe. We're

01:25looking at the northern Pacific water temperatures. We're looking at the timing of certain things

01:29that are going to come across west to east. Those are the things that we looked at, and also past

01:33years that showed this as well, that were very common to the pattern that we were in during the

01:38course of the fall. Those all came together. Now, it's always hard to predict exactly, and that's

01:43what people want, exactness. That's hard to do in the long range, but again, we had the pattern

01:48predicted back in September in our winter forecast, and then a reversal. Now, the problem is,

01:53going forward, Bernie, how long does this mild period last to reverse temperatures a little bit

01:59in December? Maybe a struggle a little bit early on, but I do think the middle part of December,

02:03we see some milder weather from the plains on east, and things restart to go back to cooler

02:09and more stormy in the west. All right, let's talk about snow then. If you have all this

02:13mild air, it's going to be hard for a lot of areas to get above normal snowfall. There are a few

02:20exceptions, though. You know, you can still get snow when it's mild. It's not out of the picture,

02:25but the problem is getting it at the right time, okay? So, we do expect still departures to be

02:30below average from the Ohio Valley, because that's kind of where the warmest air may end up being

02:35from time to time throughout the months of winter. It's the northern areas that have got a good

02:38start. Of course, the Great Lakes we know about has got a great start, and that's been on our

02:43radar for a long time. Now, let's look what's going to happen in the upper Midwest. Are we

02:48going to start seeing systems crossing up through the Great Lakes to start getting them on target?

02:52And we do believe that could start taking place here as soon as the next couple of weeks.

02:57All right, let's talk about Christmas week, Paul. I know I twisted your arm and said,

03:00you know what? That's what everybody wants to know. Ari wants to be out grilling on her deck.

03:05I want some snow in the forecast. There is some hope, if you like it a little on the colder side.

03:13Yeah, there is hope, and we are looking at it very carefully. I just think that Christmas week

03:19is a transition week, and what that means is, unfortunately, the front side could be mild,

03:25which could wipe out a lot of snow cover if there's any snow on the ground in areas from the,

03:30like, away from the lakes, Ohio Valley, on eastward, probably mild temperatures take over,

03:36and some rain events up until Christmas. We could see a pretty strong cold front maybe early in the

03:41week. I know it's a long way off the time, but maybe early in the week, and then things reverse.

03:46Look at this jet stream pattern that comes in in the second half and maybe the early part of

03:50January. The ridge builds in the west, dry mild air in the southwest, and then that dip in the

03:55jet stream, we may start to see some clipper systems coming in out of western Canada,

03:59and that could bring some cold air. And, Bernie, one other thing, the polar vortex

04:04looks a little more displaced, just like in late November, early December,

04:08could come into the factor, could be a factor here going to early January, so

04:12we'll keep that eye on that situation. So, Ari? Yeah, I'm happy. It's after Christmas,

04:21unfortunately. AccuWeather lead long-range expert, Paul Pastelak. Paul, thanks for joining us.

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