Major lake-effect snow coming after a wintry Thanksgiving

AccuWeather

AccuWeather forecasters are warning of not just a winter storm that will affect pre-Thanksgiving travel, but of feet of snow around the Great Lakes over the holiday weekend.

Transcript

00:00John, this is that time of the year where we get into some pretty dynamic changes.

00:03We had Thursday night football with a snow globe type effect there into Cleveland.

00:08But we're looking ahead to another storm that's much broader than anything specifically tied

00:13to the lakes, at least in the short term.

00:15Yeah, the first phase of it is, that's right Jeff, good afternoon, and that's going to

00:18unfortunately result in some fairly widespread travel disruptions, very poorly timed with

00:23Wednesday into Thursday, which is of course big travel time periods, all associated with

00:29an area of low pressure that's going to be organizing from the inner mountain west to

00:32the central United States.

00:34And we've got some options on this one.

00:36A stronger storm can track further to the north and bring heavier amounts of snow to

00:40parts of northern New England down toward the Great Lakes, where a weaker storm system

00:44would pass further south with probably just a little bit of snow on the northern edge.

00:48So this is a pretty dynamic system.

00:50Stay tuned to AccuWeather.com and great resources on the AccuWeather app.

00:54Our winter cast feature tells you how much snow is to be expected in your backyard and

00:58then prospects for a little bit more, a little bit less, a great resource during a very important

01:03travel time.

01:04And John, I know you were part of our forecast discussion as you lead the team.

01:09We do have a snow map coming within the hour and it's going to be on AccuWeather.com and

01:12the AccuWeather app very shortly as well for this particular storm.

01:15Yeah, that's right.

01:16Our team is activating that right now so you'll be able to see those maps and use that to

01:20make the best plans, especially on a week like this.

01:23That's exactly why we're providing that information earlier than any other source so you have

01:28that to make the best plans and stay safer.

01:30And behind that, we have very, very high confidence in a widespread high impact weather pattern

01:36here, John, that involves a lot of cold that we haven't seen since last winter.

01:39A big shock to the system coming here across the central and eastern part of the United

01:43States.

01:44Temperatures are going to average some 5 to 20 degrees in some spots below normal after

01:51Thanksgiving time period through the first week of December.

01:54And watch on this animation as these pinks and white colors come back around again.

01:59We're going to be talking about round after round of reinforcing shots of cold air passing

02:05over the relatively mild, unfrozen Great Lakes.

02:09That's a recipe for a major lake effect snow event here.

02:13From Friday through the weekend into early next week, Jeff, in the typical favored lake

02:18effect areas, especially east of Cleveland, south of Buffalo, and along the Interstate

02:23181 corridor in the Tug Hill Plateau, for example, of western New York, look for feet

02:28of snow and road closures.

02:31I-90 likely closed as well in some spots here as we head into the late weekend, into the

02:37weekend.

02:38Also very problematic for holiday travel.

02:41And John, the lakes do respond a little more swiftly than ocean water temperatures to air

02:45mass changes.

02:46But with that said, we've had a warm November and the first two-thirds of the month have

02:50featured among the warmest water temps on record for the Great Lakes.

02:54So it's going to be higher octane fuel to drive the lake effect snow.

02:57That's going to keep that lake effect snow engine going, and as we get reinforcing shot

03:01after reinforcing shot of cold air into the weekend and into early next week, although

03:07the wind directions can vary a little bit, and that means that the snow bands will oscillate

03:12north or south from a particular location, that's when we could be talking about, and

03:17that's why we are talking about feet of snow in some places downwind of the lakes.

03:21And because, Jeff, we think that band can oscillate a bit, that may keep some of the

03:27very, very high-end numbers from being realized in any one spot, but a fairly widespread risk

03:33of multiple feet of snow downwind of the lakes.

03:36And John, just briefly, if we were to look at the context and maybe our confidence level

03:39in various aspects of this forecast, can you break down the cold, the lake effect snow,

03:44and then what might follow this current pattern?

03:47Well, that widespread taste of January here in the central and eastern United States,

03:51high confidence level on that, as well as the lake effect snow.

03:55The piece that we're going to have to continue to watch here is later next week, we talked

04:00with our long-range expert team led by Paul Pastelok, low confidence, but we're going

04:05to have to monitor.

04:06Some of the ingredients are there for a snow risk at the coast, even down to the, you know,

04:12all the way to the coast, there'll be plenty of cold air.

04:14The question is, will there be a storm?

04:16And a lot of times when you have quite a distance difference in those air masses between that

04:21cold air surging southeastward and relatively mild air off the eastern seaboard, that's

04:26a storm highway.

04:28The question is, are we going to have a storm there or would it be offshore?

04:31All right.

04:32AcuWeather Chief Meteorologist Jonathan Porter.

04:34John, thanks again for your insight.

04:35Good to be with you.

04:37Likewise.

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