SEC Championship Scenarios: Key Games & Odds Analysis

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00:06The state of the Southeastern

00:09Conference. There are so many

00:10potential scenarios to

00:12determine who will square off

00:13on the first Saturday in

00:15December in the SEC

00:16Championship game in Atlanta.

00:19Here's as simple as I can make

00:21it using the odds at this

00:23moment. Texas is the favorite

00:25by 5 cents in front of the

00:27Crimson Tide plus 160 for the

00:29renewal of the Lone Star State

00:31Showdown next week against A&M

00:33at Kyle Field is a seven and a

00:35half point road favorite. Texas

00:37wins that football game more

00:39than likely they are in. Alabama

00:41wins out and Texas knocks off

00:43Texas A&M. The Crimson Tide in

00:46as well. It is why they have the

00:48two shortest prices. There is

00:50life yet for Georgia. A&M's

00:52viability really depends on that

00:54game next week at home in

00:56College Station against the

00:58Longhorns. There are multiple

00:59different scenarios for Ole Miss

01:01and Tennessee. But again, Kev,

01:03the simplest fashion to explain

01:05this. The winner next week of

01:07the Longhorns and the Aggies and

01:09if Alabama wins out and handles

01:11business, the Crimson Tide will

01:12be playing in Atlanta. I think

01:13the one caveat, if I'm not

01:15mistaken, is Missouri losing

01:19would like change the strength

01:20of schedule a bit and could get

01:22Georgia then in the game.

01:24Here's the one thing that is

01:25really unfortunate and it is the

01:27one downside presently to

01:29expansion is what it has done to

01:32your conference championship

01:33games. It has not only made them

01:36less meaningful, Joe, they are

01:38now actually dangerous where I

01:41think if you did ask Kirby and

01:43DeBoer under a lie detector,

01:45neither wants to play in that

01:46game. Think about what happened

01:48to Kirby last year. Undefeated

01:49in the regular season. I

01:51understand it was four teams,

01:53but they still got left out

01:54after winning 29 in the last

01:5630 games. So maybe Kirby might

01:58feel that way. Lane came out and

02:00said that way as well, that if

02:01you're on the outside looking in

02:03it's in pole position. All you

02:04have to do is sit tight. So

02:06again, we'll see how this plays

02:07out in regards to the final

02:09couple of weeks. I think if

02:11you're looking value, I mean, I

02:13would take this shot right now

02:15with Ole Miss at 10 to 1 to

02:17potentially win the SEC

02:18championship. I just think it's

02:20great value considering where

02:22they are and I know they need a

02:24bunch of a lot of a lot of help.

02:26But if we're talking preaction

02:28today, right, right here, right

02:30now, the 10 to 1 is is like, you

02:32know, entertaining tiebreaker

02:34scenarios, head to head results

02:36your matchup against common

02:38conference opponents. Third

02:40tiebreaker scenario in the SEC

02:42is your performance against the

02:44highest ranked team in the

02:45conference standings. And then

02:47fourth and where Alabama holds

02:48the tiebreaker right now, which

02:50is why the Crimson Tide really

02:51controls its destiny is your

02:53conference opponent win

02:54percentage. That's where Mizzou

02:56would factor in again, a lot to

02:59be decided and a lot will factor

03:01in on what could be described as

03:03trap spot or look ahead spot

03:05Saturday in the SEC. So let's

03:07head to Austin where the spread

03:09earlier in the week. Joe was

03:10twenty and a half in favor of

03:12the Longhorns, the number three

03:14team in the country against

03:15Kentucky. It is now eighteen and

03:17a half on this Saturday morning.

03:19Kentucky has a favorite in SEC

03:21play. Awful. Oh and four

03:23straight up. Kentucky as a dog

03:25catching at least fifteen points

03:27in all three. A perfect three and

03:29oh against the spread. Can the

03:30cats keep this game close in

03:32Texas? I mean, I think they can

03:34just because two factors. We've

03:36seen them step up before against

03:38the likes of Georgia at home and

03:40then on the road in Ole Miss

03:42where they were catching

03:43multiple points and they won the

03:44ballgame outright. I understand

03:46that was at the start of the

03:47year. But I've also seen Texas

03:49lay twenty-one and a half to

03:50Vanderbilt and let that team back

03:52in after having a fourteen point

03:54lead and the football at

03:55midfield with a minute to go in

03:57the second quarter. So again,

03:59it's going down though. It's

04:00eighteen and a half. You still

04:01have two touchdowns and a field

04:02goal. By right, Texas should win

04:04this ballgame by forty-five

04:05points but I'm going to take the

04:07cats with the eighteen and a

04:08half. You see my stress? Yeah.

04:10Yeah. Because I I just knew this

04:13game exists. I'm like I'll bet

04:14Kentucky like secretly Mark Pope

04:17has held Kentucky football.

04:18That's how good he is. They just

04:19been covering numbers left,

04:20right, and center. You see him

04:21drawing up those plays? Oh, what

04:23a tag. Do you see that? What a

04:24coach. I follow that on his

04:25website. Yeah. I did not look at

04:27it. It's ahead of the curve. So

04:28I get to the game and I realize

04:30I kind of lean Texas. I'm like I

04:33can I can bow out here I think

04:35because here's one thing I look

04:36I looked at. Sark three and oh

04:39against the number the week

04:40before playing Oklahoma while he

04:42was in the big twelve. Right. I

04:43think that's a relevant sample

04:45size man at eighteen and a half

04:46and this is essentially the

04:47number Tennessee laid Texas

04:49better than Tennessee. Now, I'm

04:50spread math and I might have to

04:52bet the Longhorns and I don't

04:53know. I don't know. I don't know

04:54if the Pope will like that. Ooh,

04:56I might have to bet Texas.

04:57Texas as a favorite in SEC play

05:00two and four against the spread

05:02courtesy of UTSA winning last

05:04night against Temple. The

05:05Longhorns now have three

05:06victories against teams above

05:09five hundred.

05:15Yeah.

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