Clemson's Key Matchup Against Pitt Without Holstein

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00:00And a compelling day for Clemson, ranked 20th in the country on the road, taking on Pitt.

00:06Now, you'll see the number, 11 and a half in favor of the Tigers, but some news this

00:10morning.

00:11Eli Holstein, the Panthers quarterback injured last week in the loss to Virginia, has been

00:16ruled out.

00:17It's Nate Yarnell getting the start for the Panthers today.

00:22And Lacey Guy, as we look at this spread, a Clemson team that has won seven of eight

00:26games since the opening season loss to Georgia, a Pitt team that started perfect, 7-0, and

00:32now has dropped to consecutive.

00:35Where do you start your breakdown today in Pittsburgh?

00:37Well, you look at the game last week for me in terms of Clemson and Virginia Tech, right?

00:41They started slow, they get the block field goal, Virginia Tech takes a 7-0 lead, and

00:46then all of a sudden the defense makes adjustments, right?

00:49They buckle up, shut down the run, Kyron Jones had a mediocre performance, about $1.59 through

00:55the air, and all of a sudden we saw Cade Kloepnick come on in the second half.

00:59I look at this game, and again, it's not even the quarterback situation for Pitt right now,

01:05it's the mindset of Pitt, right?

01:06They were undefeated when they walked into Dallas a couple weeks ago, right?

01:11They had everything in front of them.

01:12We win this game, we're in the title game potentially, squaring off with Miami, they

01:16lose.

01:17It reminds me of last year with Air Force, 8-0, they lose that game to Army, all of a

01:22sudden they drop four straight.

01:23I'm not inclined to just jump at this 11-1⁄2, even though it's enticing, I lean to Clemson,

01:30but I do like this 53-1⁄2 total, because Yarnell's number is 196, they have to score

01:35at least 24 to beat Clemson, I believe, and I do believe Clemson can throw over the top,

01:41so give me Clemson, but I really like the over 53-1⁄2.

01:44So for me, I look at this game, and what I would say is buyer beware, because it's probably

01:50hard to get a grasp on the gap between Holstein and Yarnell.

01:54A lot of that is because Holstein was such a surprise, right?

01:56The freshman we didn't know was going to come out there and put pressure on like Marino

02:00numbers in the early beginnings of his season.

02:03But I do look at this number, and I look at what we've seen from the recent Clemson numbers,

02:07I mean this team laid 6-1⁄2 last week to Vatek.

02:10Now I understand the underlying situation with Pitt, if you were to tell me that odds

02:14makers don't believe Pitt is as good as Vatek, I wouldn't be surprised by that.

02:18Not by this much of a gap, with the home field advantage in favor of the Panthers

02:21in this spot, at over double digits, I have to give Pittsburgh a chance, because this

02:26is where certain, so I'm not a huge Narduzzi guy, like I think he kind of limits the ceiling,

02:32but sometimes those guys who limit ceilings, Ben, raise floors.

02:35And Narduzzi here, without a great quarterback, I'm like, this is great, defense, run, run,

02:40run, and that's how maybe you can stay inside this number.

02:43And that will be the test for this Pitt team, because when they have been favored this year,

02:47six of their nine games, they've allowed less than 24 points in all of those six.

02:53Just 19.5 points per game given up.

02:56And normally the Panthers start defensively, but in their three games as an underdog, they've

03:00allowed at least 27 points in all of those, giving up more than 36 points per game.

03:06And I was wrong on the Tigers last week, heading to Lane Stadium to take on Virginia Tech.

03:11It was a Clemson defense that was not as strong, allowing more than 350 yards, entering last

03:16week about 40 on the ground.

03:19They hold a good Virginia Tech rushing offense to only 40 yards on 21 carries as a team.

03:25Just 228 total yards Clemson covered in that game.

03:29They are five and three against the spread, favored in all eight since the opening season

03:34loss to Georgia, over in three of those five covers, but not last week against VodTech.

03:39We'll see.

03:40That number, by the way, Joe, has dropped to 50 and a half, I think, with the Nate Yarnell

03:44news.

03:45Four of 12 last week for 44 yards, a touchdown and two interceptions in the loss to UVA.

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