What Trump's Appointment Picks Mean for Taiwan

TaiwanPlus News

U.S. President-elect Donald Trump has made public some key appointment picks for his administration, but what would these choices mean for Taiwan? We speak to Lauren Dickey from the China Power Project for some insight.

Transcript

00:00Lauren, looking at these picks that Trump has made so far with Tulsi Gabbard leading

00:04intelligence, a new Secretary of Defense with Pete Hegseth, and maybe most notable, Marco

00:08Rubio, Secretary of State, what do you make of these picks in terms of Taiwan's defense?

00:14I think for Taiwan, there's a lot of unknowns.

00:18We don't really know a lot about the Secretary of Defense nominee.

00:23He is obviously a TV host, but brings close ties to Trump to the picture, and that might

00:30be sort of his role is just to be Trump's guy in the Pentagon.

00:36But I think for Taiwan, the one that is really interesting is Rubio, Senator Rubio, his nomination

00:43for Secretary of State.

00:45And so if you look at Rubio's track record, he proposed several bills in recent history

00:51that are all very friendly towards Taiwan and help advance the U.S.-Taiwan relationship.

00:57You have to remember, too, that he's sanctioned by China.

01:01So there's a big question mark over whether or how he might be able to travel to China

01:08to engage his counterparts in his role.

01:11So in that environment, yes, he is a China hawk, and I think we can expect him to take

01:17that vantage point in his role, assuming he's confirmed.

01:22But I think the nature of how he's become a China hawk has also sharpened his focus

01:27on Taiwan and the U.S.-Taiwan relationship.

01:31There's been a lot of pressure on Taiwan to increase its defense spending.

01:34But now with Trump coming in, how big is that pressure going to be?

01:38So if Trump or others, President-elect Trump or others, have said 10 percent is the threshold

01:44they want Taiwan to hit, there is a good chance that they will try and pursue that.

01:48But I think they will probably encounter, frankly, a bit of reality as they settle into

01:53their roles and realize how hard it will be for Taiwan not only to hit that 10 percent

01:59target of GDP, there would be huge tradeoffs required and a tough negotiation with the

02:04L.Y., the legislative U.N. as well.

02:07But the U.S. defense industrial base would also have to keep pace.

02:11And the challenge we have today under the current administration is that the U.S. defense

02:17industrial base can't meet the supply-demand pressures of Israel and Ukraine and Taiwan

02:24all at the same time, as well as our other allies and partners.

02:27I think a lower number, like 5 percent, is more realistic, but there would still be huge

02:33tradeoffs within Taiwan's system.

02:36And do you see any other obstacles ahead when it comes to the U.S. and Taiwan cooperating

02:41in security?

02:42So as this new administration settles in and learns, frankly, what the last administration

02:48has done before them, they probably need to consider, like, how much is too much or when

02:54is too much?

02:55Because if the U.S. is selling things to Taiwan and they're just landing on island but not

03:01being integrated in a useful, frankly, way to build deterrence because Taiwan has no

03:07bandwidth to train more stuff, that's also not in, I would argue, in the U.S. interest.

03:13You want to make sure that the stuff that we're selling from the U.S. side goes to Taiwan

03:18and immediately goes into use.

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