Konflik Timur Tengah Picu Kekhawatiran Pasokan, Minyak Melambung  5% - video Dailymotion

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"Saksikan tayangan kami Official Youtube IDX Channel di Program Power Breakfast, Jumat (04/10/2024) dangan Tema Analisis Saham Pilihan: BBNI, ASII, MEDC, ELSA"

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00:00We will discuss this morning with Mr. Abdul Aziz, Investment Specialist, RdK Elite Securities.

00:12Good morning, Mr. Aziz.

00:14Good morning, Mrs. Prisa.

00:16Thank you for joining us this morning.

00:18Let's get straight to it.

00:19We will first discuss the closing of the Wall Street stock exchange and the weakening of the European stock exchange.

00:25In the U.S., there is a waiting list of labor data that will be released today.

00:32Then, from Europe, there is still a conflict in the Middle East.

00:36How far will this be the main trigger for the opening of the market at the end of this week in the Indonesian stock exchange?

00:46The weakening of the Indonesian stock exchange is also happening in Asian stocks, which can be seen as a market reaction to global uncertainty.

00:53Especially related to geopolitics and monetary policy.

00:56Tension in the Middle East is a negative catalyst for sentiment investors.

01:00In addition, the capital outflow is quite large.

01:02In the last week, the capital outflow was almost Rp10 trillion.

01:05This worsens the condition of the domestic market, i.e. the IHSJ.

01:08In a situation like this, investors tend to reduce exposure to risky assets such as stocks,

01:13and move to more defensive assets, i.e. bonds, or foreign currency.

01:19So we can see that in the last few days, the U.S. dollar has experienced a strengthening.

01:24If we look at the fact that later tonight there will be a release of economic data,

01:29which is related to unemployment claims,

01:31the expectation is that the unemployment claims will increase slightly.

01:34And there is also related to the release of agricultural studies,

01:38which is predicted to experience a decline.

01:41This will also be a positive sentiment.

01:44It will be in line with the U.S. dollar.

01:51If this expectation is in line with what has been stated.

01:55So how is the opportunity for our domestic market today?

01:58Will the tendency continue to weaken or vice versa?

02:03For the domestic market today, it will potentially not be too volatile.

02:09Volatility will be around 7,460.

02:187,460 will be tested by the IHSJ?

02:22Yes, if the IHSJ continues to correct it.

02:26There is an opportunity to continue the correction.

02:28The IHSJ continued to weaken yesterday.

02:31Likewise, other Asian exchanges.

02:33However, this morning we saw that for Nikkei Japan, Kospi South Korea,

02:37and Singapore, the trend was up, but the trend was flat.

02:40Except for Hang Seng Hong Kong, which fell.

02:42What do you mean by the weakness in the ASEAN exchange,

02:46especially for the IHSJ at the moment?

02:48It's related to today's geopolitics in the Middle East.

02:53It's getting hotter.

02:54This is concerning the economic situation,

02:56related to international trade,

02:59so it interferes with economic progress.

03:02And we can see that as it gets hotter,

03:04the situation in the Middle East is very disturbed.

03:07And if we look at it, the price of commodities is increasing,

03:11so we can assume that investors will be more defensive

03:15and reduce their risk assets.

03:18Reduce risk assets,

03:21and choose commodities that have a short-term relationship.

03:25Yes.

03:27Yesterday we saw the price...

03:29Yes, please, Mr. Aziz.

03:32If we look at it, the price of commodities is increasing significantly,

03:36whether it's commodities related to energy.

03:39If we look at it, it's also related to defensive commodities,

03:42such as gold, which is also increasing.

03:44This will indicate that investors will switch to more defensive investments.

03:49More defensive investments.

03:52What about commodities?

03:54It's not defensive, right?

03:56It's more volatile.

03:59According to your recommendation,

04:01the price of oil has increased by 5%,

04:04and if I'm not mistaken, WTI is around US$73 per barrel,

04:0873.88 in this morning's update.

04:12How do you deal with the rising price of crude oil?

04:17Do you see this only for a moment,

04:20and we wait and see?

04:22Or is it interesting to enter the energy emitters,

04:24because the global index is also experiencing significant strength, Mr. Aziz?

04:31Of course, this sentiment is usually short-term.

04:34We have to take advantage of this momentum,

04:36so some companies that have sentiments related to the price of commodities,

04:40we can look at, such as Elsa, Medco,

04:43which also experienced a significant rise in the last few months,

04:46and there is a potential to continue the rise

04:48when the price of commodities experiences a significant rise again today.

04:52Okay, so you see Elsa, Medco, the upside is still interesting,

04:55if you just want to enter?

04:59If you want to enter, you can go through the open price,

05:03or you can queue at 1% of the open price,

05:06for the price of commodities.

05:081% above the open price?

05:101% below the open price.

05:12Below the open price, 1.370 right now,

05:14so below that is interesting to buy.

05:16Maybe a target that can be a reference for investors related to Medco and Elsa?

05:23Okay, for JGPN trading, it can be around 3-5%.

05:273-5%?

05:29Yes, we take advantage of the momentum related to the price of commodities,

05:31which has increased significantly.

05:33How about the cut loss?

05:38For the level of cut loss, it's at 2%.

05:41We can't say, oh, the price is not up to expectations.

05:44This is more like short-term trading, right?

05:47Yes, because the sentiment is usually short-term.

05:50Okay, why Medco and Elsa?

05:51Why not Emiten Energy or others related to Migas?

05:55This is because Medco and Elsa have a smaller risk than other energy companies,

06:00such as ENRG, which has a high risk and high quality.

06:04Okay, because the risk is estimated to be more mitigated,

06:07so it's interesting if you want to enter,

06:09take advantage of the opportunity from the conflict in the Middle East and the price of energy,

06:13which has increased in Medco and Elsa.

06:18Yes, that's right.

06:19Okay, we go to Rupiah, which is also under pressure,

06:21the escalation may be in the Middle East.

06:23What needs to be monitored from the sector or the stock market,

06:27or do you see the weakness in Rupiah is still moderate?

06:33Okay, if we look at it,

06:35when Rupiah is experiencing an increase,

06:37several sectors may need to be monitored,

06:39such as the manufacturing sector,

06:40which is the first,

06:41the second is the formation sector,

06:43and the third is the automotive sector.

06:45Properties also need to be monitored,

06:47because some of the goods for this property are also imported.

06:51If we look at it,

06:53if this Rupiah increase happens because we see that in the last few weeks,

06:57there must be quite a lot,

06:59and some of them in China,

07:01which gives a fairly high stimulus,

07:03so that investors are more interested in the Chinese stock market.

07:06And if we look at it,

07:07the Chinese stock market is also more discounted than the IHSG stock market.

07:13And if we look at it,

07:14some of these big banks are pushing IHSG

07:18to make significant use of the last week.

07:21Okay, those are the sectors that should be monitored

07:25in the middle of the weakness in Rupiah exchange rates,

07:28because it's sensitive, right?

07:30That's right.

07:31Avoid it first, Mr. Aziz, or what?

07:34What do you mean?

07:35Avoid it first, or what?

07:37Yes, if possible, avoid it first.

07:39Let's move on to the sectors that have high volume,

07:42related to the community.

07:44Okay.

07:45Yesterday, this Rupiah was actually at 15,000, right?

07:48Then it was at 15,000, 15,100,

07:51and now it's at 15,400 again.

07:54From Erdika, do you see any more opportunities for Rupiah?

07:59For the Rupiah sector,

08:01there will be a potential boost next week.

08:04If we look at the expectations,

08:06if the non-employment rate drops,

08:08Rupiah will experience a boost.

08:10And the inflow, if we look at it,

08:13there is already an inflow from abroad,

08:16and if we look at the outflow,

08:18it's getting smaller.

08:20This will also create a potential for Rupiah to bounce back.

08:24Okay.

08:25Regarding the dividend season,

08:26is there a strong correlation between the inflow and dividend

08:29from various METNs that are planned to be distributed in the future?

08:33One of them, maybe the latest,

08:35there is information about the ISEE

08:37which will divide the dividend around Rp 3.96 billion.

08:42As far as I can see,

08:43the inflow is quite high compared to ASEAN.

08:46Also, ASEAN has very high expectations of ASEAN.

08:49And ASEAN also gives confidence to investors.

08:54ASEAN provides a policy to provide an interim dividend

08:57which is the same as last year.

08:59And if we look at the nominal, it's around Rp 3.9 trillion.

09:03This will also give good expectations to investors.

09:06So, foreign investors are close to ASEAN

09:09and have started accumulating,

09:12if we look at the last few weeks.

09:14Yes.

09:15This dividend is Rp 3.96 trillion,

09:18or equivalent to Rp 98 per share.

09:21Do you think this figure is interesting for investors?

09:26I think it's quite interesting.

09:28If we look at the interim dividend,

09:31it's still around Rp 6 trillion.

09:33If we look at the nominal,

09:35it's less than 2%.

09:38Of course, this will give a small risk to investors

09:41related to the volatility if there is a dividend split.

09:44For that, ASEAN is always close to ASEAN.

09:47If we look at the nominal, ASEAN is still at a discount.

09:50Unfortunately, the margin of safety is around Rp 6,500.

09:55The risk is around 25%.

09:57This gives a lot of potential to ASEAN.

10:00If we look at ASEAN,

10:02some ASEAN businesses are also experiencing a boost,

10:06such as UNTR,

10:07because there is a feeling that the community production is increasing.

10:11You see Rp 6,500 as the normal price

10:14from ASRA International, right?

10:16Yes.

10:17Right now, it's at Rp 5,250.

10:20If you want to invest now,

10:23is it worth buying?

10:24And what is the risk limit?

10:28The risk limit for ASEAN International is around 5%.

10:32Because ASEAN can be invested for the next 6 months.

10:36Okay.

10:39There is a chance to go back to the highest level.

10:42The highest level is around Rp 5,600 or Rp 5,750, right?

10:49Yes, of course.

10:50We expect to invest for the next 6 months

10:53before the dividend distribution.

10:56But the dividend will be distributed this October, right?

11:00If we look at the balance,

11:02the dividend will be distributed in May.

11:07If we look at the balance in May,

11:09before May,

11:10the dividend will be distributed in June.

11:12This is quite interesting for ASEAN International.

11:13Okay, so how is it?

11:14What is ASEAN International's recommendation for today, Mr. Aziz?

11:18For ASEAN International,

11:19we can start investing to make purchases in ASEAN International.

11:24Purchases, right?

11:25You also recommend to buy, right?

11:28Yes.

11:29Okay, Rp 5,250,

11:30you still recommend to buy

11:31for ASEAN International.

11:32The risk limit is around 5% from the current position, right?

11:36Yes, that's right.

11:37Okay, that's the recommendation for ASEAN International.

11:38I will send you the information of my dividend.

11:42And the recommendation and choice from Mr. Abdul Aziz

11:45will be presented after the next segment.

11:47Stay with us in the market bus segment.

Konflik Timur Tengah Picu Kekhawatiran Pasokan, Minyak Melambung 5%

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