WNBA Playoffs Best Bets: Expert Analysis & Key Matchups

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00:00Welcome back into WNBA today and as promised, I have James Young with me.

00:08Coach's perspective is the key perspective and while we're laying out the playoff format,

00:13the playoff rundown for round one getting going on Sunday, of course, we have to talk with coach.

00:19Coach, how are you doing so far on this Friday?

00:22Good to be on with you, Casey.

00:24You know, we wrapped up the regular season.

00:26We have playoffs, we have interesting matchups, and I'm sure we'll get into

00:30who I think could be on upset alert in the first round.

00:34Oh, and I hope I did justice by setting the table and saying that there's a couple underdogs that

00:38the books are liking, but you already kind of told me about some.

00:42I'm not going to spoil it, so let's just get this party started.

00:45We got the Dream taking on the Liberty 1 p.m. on Sunday.

00:48Obviously, a lot of people think that this is a lockdown matchup for the Liberty.

00:51The Dream need their star players to just completely command and control the game,

00:54but what do you see in this one?

00:57Well, this is a matchup that, you know, if you're the Liberty, you don't want to play

01:01with your food and you want to try and blow them out of the water early.

01:04So to me, when you start looking about where to go, you want to be nervous about the overall

01:11lot, right?

01:11Because you worry about, could this game be a backdoor cover with a heavy line?

01:17So to me, if you're looking at anything, throw out the last game, which was last night, the

01:2278-67 win by the Dream.

01:24I'm looking at the Liberty team total over in the first half to be 43.5 on Fandul.

01:30They scored 38, 62, 41 points.

01:33This is the best team offensively in the WNBA.

01:36Not a strong team defensively in the Atlanta Dream.

01:39And if you're Sandra Boyd-Delocasey, you want to get off to a fast start.

01:45That's the key.

01:45You don't want them to bleed.

01:47So I believe the first half Liberty team total over 43.5 points is the way to go.

01:53They jump them early.

01:54I love that.

01:55And just to stick with that for just a second, coach, I'm hearing a lot of rumblings that

01:59start players will either not be participating or be removed from the lineup quite early.

02:03So does that kind of continue to stack to the fast start, hot start, and then move along

02:08when it comes to the rest of the game?

02:11Yeah, I think so.

02:12And I think that's why you get nervous about taking a full game, right?

02:16You know, because if you're Fitzany Bordello and you're up by 20 points early in the fourth

02:22quarter, why are you playing Sabrina Inescu?

02:24Why are you playing Brianna Stewart?

02:25You know, people like Benajalini Hamilton, Courtney Bannister have battled injuries all

02:30year.

02:30So why would you risk it for a whole game?

02:33The other thing to look at, Casey, is if the Liberty get off to a slow start, let's say

02:37they're tied after the first quarter, maybe jump on the Liberty at the end of the first

02:42quarter to win the second quarter.

02:44Maybe teams get off to a slow start, a little bit of nervous energy, jump on them in-game,

02:50stay away from the full game at all, play Liberty after the end of the first quarter

02:54if they're struggling, or take the first half, or if it's something at halftime, maybe the

02:59third quarter.

03:00Coaches like to make big adjustments at the break.

03:03This would be a big series for an Atlanta team, but let's be honest, it's playing better.

03:08Another thing to look at, I know it's minus money big, but we got to talk about Tina Charles.

03:13The Angels wonder what she has done.

03:15Minus $155 for a double-double.

03:17If they're going to be in the game at all, Tina Charles double-double should be something

03:22you should be looking at.

03:24Absolutely noted.

03:25Now, what about this?

03:26Because I was seeing a lot of people maybe locking in on Howard for over 15.5 points.

03:31Is that something that would be appealing for this matchup?

03:35Yeah, I mean, Ryan Howard is the star of that offense, right?

03:38Ryan Howard, Gray, and obviously Tina Charles.

03:42But you want to cut the head off the snake.

03:44The only thing that gets me nervous about Ryan Howard is, but Angelina Hamilton is arguably

03:48one of the best 3 and D players in the WNBA.

03:51If she's healthy, they're going to try, and that's what you want to do as a coach.

03:56You want to cut the head off at the snake, which means you're going to have to look at,

03:59that's why I think the Tina Charles double-double is the other angle to do, or if you want to

04:02go points versus rebounds, because if I'm Sandy Bordello, I'm looking at knocking down

04:08Howard, limiting her opportunities to score and make other people try and beat her.

04:14There we go.

04:15See, this is why we ask the expert and we shut down anything that's trending a little

04:18too heavy, unless it makes sense.

04:21Speaking of things that make sense, we got the fever versus the sun, and you made some

04:24sense during the break when we were chatting about this matchup and what basketball fans

04:28should be anticipating.

04:29Clark, Boston, Mitchell, they look to continue the momentum that they've had after the Olympic

04:34break, but let me know what you see in this one.

04:37More importantly, is this the upset alert we were chatting about?

04:41Folks, this is my best bet of the WNBA first round.

04:44I am taking the Indiana Fever to win this series.

04:50When you start looking at the fact of when these two teams played during the regular

04:54season, right, the first matchup, obviously June 14th, first game of the year, sorry,

05:01May 14th.

05:02Second game, May 20th, right?

05:04Third game, June 10th.

05:07They played three out of four games before the Olympic break.

05:10They've been much better, Indiana, since the break, because to me, I think the ability

05:16of Kaitlin Clark to get rest and understand what's going on and getting film, I love

05:21the Indiana Fever plus 154 to win this series.

05:26Here's why, folks.

05:27You got a closer at Kaitlin Clark, and you got a half-court game, and you got a team

05:32that can't make threes.

05:34Pack it in.

05:35Contest.

05:36Get the first rebound.

05:37Kaitlin Clark can steal this series.

05:39Indiana Fever win it, plus 154.

05:41Wow, so it looks like the sun might lose there.

05:44Here comes the sun moment, and all those predictions that said they were going to go three and

05:47out, well, keep a close eye on it.

05:49Then we got the Aces versus the Storm.

05:51Under two minutes here, Coach.

05:52What do you see in this matchup?

05:54It's just a bad matchup for the Seattle Storm, a team that hasn't been good against the spread

05:59coming down the stretch.

06:00I think this is a point where we need to see the Las Vegas Aces start to turn it on.

06:05You look at Asia Wilson, and arguably the best season in the history of the WNBA.

06:10But to me, Chelsea Gray, Jackie Young, Kelsey Plum, their ability to knock down threes should

06:18be important.

06:18Also, look at Gustafson down low as the five, now that Kia Stokes out of the starting lineup.

06:23Give me the Aces, minus seven and a half, game one.

06:27All right, that one feels like a shoo-in.

06:29Any final quick thoughts for the Mercury versus Lynx?

06:31Is it as simple as Minnesota has been dominant?

06:33Minnesota's going to ride this one out.

06:36You made a great point, Casey, last segment.

06:39If there's a team that I'm looking at to win the WNBA title besides the Liberty, it's the

06:43Minnesota Lynx.

06:44They beat the Liberty head-to-head.

06:47They won the Commissioner's Cup.

06:48They have the best coach.

06:49Should be the coach of the year in Cheryl Reeve.

06:51They have a top three player in Nafisha Collier.

06:54This is a dynamic team that can play half-court defense.

06:57Phoenix, all I got to say is Diana Terrazzi, thank you for the memories, but this is two

07:02and done.

07:04See, you just made my Friday even better, Coach.

07:06Thank you so much for laying down the playoff format, as well as the breakdown for this

07:10coming Sunday for us.

07:11And look, you made my day by saying we were on top of something when it comes to Minnesota.

07:15Coach, as always, thank you for your time.

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