Michigan vs USC: Big 10 Opener and Shift in Favorites

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00:00One of the three ranked versus ranked matchups that we have on

00:06this fourth full Saturday of the season. The reigning national

00:09champs and number 18 Michigan play host to 11th ranked USC in

00:14the Trojans. First ever Big Ten Conference football game. Lacey

00:20Guy, you and I were talking about this last weekend on

00:22Sunday when the line opened because it caught both of our

00:26attention. Michigan opened this summer as a nine and a half

00:29point favorite for the early look at this Big Ten opener for

00:33both teams. They're now not even the favorite. They're the

00:36underdog catching four and a half points inside the big

00:40house. To you, is that a statement on where both of

00:43these programs are heading into week four in this 2024 season?

00:47Absolutely. Because of the, you know, progression of Miller

00:49Moss and the week one victory over LSU in regards to picking

00:53that ball game up outright as a four and a half five point

00:57underdog. That was incredible in terms of USC. Big picture,

01:00right? They were seven and a half win total, had a 20 to one

01:03shot, 23 to one shot to win the Big Ten. And even though we knew

01:07that Sherome Moore and Michigan lost a lot of talent, we still

01:10thought they could potentially be a nine win football team. But

01:13when their 23 game home winning streak got snapped by Quinn

01:17yours and how they lost that game. No offensive identity,

01:21Kevin, in regards to this offense, Davis Warren struggling

01:24now, Alex Orji. I think that's why you're seeing the

01:27fluctuation in the total and more importantly, the line.

01:31Well, look, we saw Michigan catch seven and a half points

01:34against Texas. I know for me, I was all about Michigan in that

01:36day. I thought we saw a wild overreaction, but it ended up

01:41being the right move as Texas rolled in that football game.

01:44But for me, what did I keep saying? Well, I was not, you

01:47know, surprised. I was disappointed that that team

01:51stuck with Davis Warren and they go into the Arkansas state

01:53game who cannot stop the run. And Davis Warren cannot stop

01:57throwing picks. And finally, somebody said, Sherome Moore,

02:01the danger man's on the sideline, waiting to spin it in

02:04a rippity grippy. I mean, he's thrown six passes this year,

02:07two touchdowns. Davis Warren's thrown 72 passes this year,

02:11which has resulted in two touchdowns. It's also resulted

02:14in six interceptions. Look, I'm not saying erase the first

02:18three games for Michigan, but I'm saying erase the first

02:20three games for Michigan. They finally put in the appropriate

02:22quarterback. Look, I don't know what they were seeing in

02:24practice. I'm not going to pretend that there must have

02:27been something that earned Davis Warren that starting job,

02:30but there was nothing that earned Davis Warren the length

02:34of time he was allowed to quarterback the Michigan

02:36Wolverines. Alex Orji steps in. We know he's dynamic as a

02:39runner. In the game against Fresno, he had five carries and

02:42went for 32 yards. Again, he has six pass attempts with

02:45multiple touchdown passes. I'm on Alex Orji to throw a

02:48touchdown pass here today at minus 110. I just think for

02:51Michigan in this spot, I'm not on the side actually. The Orji

02:55bet is the only one that I made for this game because USC's

02:59fascinating with how good they've looked and I was burned

03:01maybe in the Texas game, but for Michigan today, they have an

03:05opportunity to look completely different and that's a good

03:08thing. And that is the big story of this day. Alex Orji

03:11makes his first career start for the Maize and Blue. He has

03:14played in all three games this year. He played in six games a

03:18season ago, did not attempt to pass. He was kind of the

03:21athletic complement to J.J. McCarthy, 15 carries for 86

03:25yards. We would expect to see Michigan rely on the downhill

03:29rushing attack today. Their first time last week against

03:32Arkansas State, finding Pater as a team this year on the

03:36ground. More than 300 yards, 55 attempts last week against the

03:40Red Wolves for three rushing scores. So Kev, let's go to how

03:43the offensive schematics are going to look today with Alex

03:46Orji now under center for the Maize and Blue. You were on USC

03:51entering this year. Joe also had the Trojans in his college

03:54football playoff. My hesitation was the defensive side of the

03:58ball. So far through two games with new D.C. Danton Lynn, they

04:01have looked great. USC to buy in week number three, but week

04:04two, a shutout against Utah State. The first shutout the

04:08Trojans have pitched since 2011. How big of a test though

04:12is this for the SC defense today? I mean, look, it's a

04:15different type of test, and that's why, again, they needed

04:17to make that quarterback change because if they were going to

04:19step out onto that field with Davis Warren and trying to

04:21throw the football, they're not going to be as effective as

04:23LSU. And while Nuss and Gary, you know, and those LSU Tigers

04:27were able to move the ball, you're not going to do it as

04:29effectively for Michigan. But let's just stop there with USC.

04:32And again, I think part of the reason I'm not on the side

04:34today is a lot of respect for the Trojans. I think they've

04:37been, if I were ranking them today, the second best team in

04:40the Big Ten, with Ohio State getting the nod as a top spot,

04:43and that shutout over Utah State. There's two big

04:46takeaways there. First of all, USC shut someone out, which, I

04:50mean, huh? How? Whoa, whoa, hey now, all right? We've been

04:52waiting to see something like that for a while, and not with

04:55USC, but Lincoln-Riley specifically. But I know we

04:59could, ah, it's Utah State. The same exact football team the

05:03following week puts up 21 on Utah. It does not mean USC is a

05:06better defense in Utah, but it means you cannot hand wave that

05:10shutout performance, Joe. USC is giving off major national

05:16title contender vibes, although it's only two weeks.

05:19Yes, they are, and they're only allowing 100 rushing yards per

05:21game. If they can contain Orji and Dunnevin-Edwards and

05:24Mullings, force Michigan into long third-down situations, I

05:27think they win this matchup. The biggest thing, too, is that

05:30they have the better quarterback at least heading

05:32into this matchup in terms of the passing attack. Miller-Moss,

05:35that offense are averaging 336 through the air. Moss has looked

05:39fantastic through the first couple of weeks of the regular

05:41season, completing 72% of his passes. Here's the concern,

05:45right? They had six months to prepare for LSU, and LSU's

05:49rushing attack really didn't get going until last week against

05:52South Carolina with Caden-Dorham, right? So they had

05:55six months to basically prepare. Now this is a short

05:58week, and I think Michigan goes back to basics and says, you

06:01know what? We're going to run it until you stop us. You think

06:04you're good? You have a good front seven. Let's see. This is

06:06Big Ten football.

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