LSU vs. USC: Key College Football Matchup in Las Vegas

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00:06You with a marquee matchup

00:09tonight in Las Vegas, our third

00:11and final ranked versus ranked

00:14top 25 matchup to begin week

00:16number one on a Sunday night in

00:19Sin City. It's 13th ranked LSU

00:22a four and a half point favorite

00:24against 23rd ranked USC to open

00:27up the season for both the Bayou

00:29and Los Angeles. Let's start

00:31with a little bit of big picture

00:32conversation before we dive into

00:34the weeds of this matchup. It is

00:36year number three at both of

00:38these programs for two very well

00:40established head coaches in

00:42college football. Ryan Kelly in

00:44Baton Rouge LSU has won ten

00:46games each of his first two

00:47years. Lincoln Riley, year

00:49number three in Los Angeles

00:51after a disappointing seven win

00:53regular season with Caleb

00:54Williams, but a bold victory

00:56that provides a glimmer of

00:57Miller Moss. Now the starting

00:58quarterback. Where do you think

00:59these two schools enter the

01:012024 season? Well, the

01:02perception is that they're

01:03headed in opposite directions.

01:05And the reason why I say that is

01:06you talk about Brian Kelly in

01:08terms of year number three, where

01:10he had Jaden Daniels, the

01:11Heisman Trophy winner this year

01:13there plus 125 to make the

01:15college football playoff. They

01:16started in the area of about

01:18eight to one. They've now moved

01:1912 to one to win the SEC and

01:22more importantly, they were

01:23about a 14 to 16 number to win

01:26the national championship. On

01:27the flip side, you have USC

01:30cab with a seven and a half win

01:31total, a 20 to one shot to win

01:33the big 10. What that's unheard

01:35of when you just think about

01:36Lincoln Riley in his days in

01:38Oklahoma and certainly in the

01:39two years with Caleb Williams

01:41for USC. I mean, this is a

01:43perfect opportunity for Miller

01:45Moss and the USC Trojans to not

01:47just win this game, over exceed

01:49expectations this year. Well, I

01:51think it's really interesting.

01:52These are two teams that I'm,

01:53I'm in on both, right? I'm, I

01:55like both these coaches. I think

01:57both of these quarterbacks,

01:58while they have big shoes to

01:59fill, while they might not hit

02:01those levels first and second

02:03overall pick, I think in the

02:05landscape of college football

02:07are probably a touch underrated

02:09and we've put too many guys

02:10ahead of them. When you

02:11consider the situations that

02:12these two quarterbacks are in,

02:14it makes this game specifically

02:16tough for me. In fact, I've

02:17kind of battled a bit from my

02:19futures of who do I need here?

02:21Who do I want here in, in this

02:23game? And I think if LSU gets

02:25this win, we start, we can then

02:28kind of push them in that

02:29national title conversation a

02:31little bit more depending on how

02:32it looks, because that's the

02:34range that LSU is closer to

02:36than USC. If the Trojans win a

02:39football game like this though,

02:40here on the road, I know the

02:43schedule's tough, right? They

02:44didn't get an easy break when it

02:46comes to that big 10 schedule,

02:48but all of a sudden now you go,

02:50well, hold on a minute. Can you

02:52can you get, even if they went

02:53one and two with Michigan, Penn

02:55State, Notre Dame with two of

02:56those games being at home at

02:58nine and three, I think the

03:00difficult schedule here of USC

03:01as part of the reason I have them

03:02in my CFP, there's a pathway for

03:05this team to crack into the

03:06college football playoff. And

03:07although LSU plays in the

03:09southeastern conference, the

03:10Bayou Bengals have the second

03:12easiest schedule of the 16

03:14schools from the SEC. I also

03:17think the numbers tonight could

03:19indicate what 2024 has in store

03:21both from a conference

03:22perspective, that outlook and

03:24the chase for a college football

03:26playoff appearance. And my first

03:28focus, not to the four and a

03:30half point spread in favor of LSU

03:32Kev, but that total of 64 and a

03:35half, two defenses that were

03:37atrocious a season ago, but with

03:39two great offenses. Think about

03:41the quarterbacks for these teams

03:43last year, the Heisman Trophy

03:45winner and Jaden Daniels and the

03:47reigning Heisman Trophy winner in

03:49Caleb Williams. But LSU and USC

03:51both played 13 college football

03:53games a season ago. They are two

03:55of five FPS programs around the

03:57country to go over in more than

03:5975% of their games. LSU over in

04:0212 of 13, USC over in 10 of 13

04:07changes for both schools at the

04:09defensive coordinator position

04:10for both LSU and USC. And I

04:13think when you look at these

04:14teams, big picture, how the

04:16defense has performed tonight

04:17could say a lot. Yeah, I'm on

04:19the under at 64 and a half. Part

04:21of what pushed me is I spent a

04:23lot of time on the total

04:24thinking about the step forward

04:26the defenses need to take. And

04:27then I was neglecting the point

04:28you made of, oh yeah, the first

04:30and second overall picks played

04:31on these teams last year. A

04:33little exercise for the people

04:34last year, USC played both

04:36Washington and Oregon,

04:37Washington. That game total was

04:3976 and a half. The Oregon game

04:41total 78 and a half. If these

04:44two teams played last year, what

04:46do you think that total is? Is

04:48it in the 80? You think? I think

04:51we're touching 80. I think

04:52towards the tail end of the

04:53year, let's say this was a

04:54November matchup. They're

04:55touching 80. 78, 79. I don't

04:58know, but I mean, it's in the

04:59ball between 76 and a half and

05:0180 and a half, probably. So I

05:03think the question then is year

05:05over year, how much of these

05:07teams, it's hard to, but move

05:10towards an under team, if you

05:11will, right? Dropping the

05:13offensive power rating, pushing

05:15up the defensive power rating.

05:17If you said nine points per

05:19team, I don't think that would

05:21be crazy. So even if you go to

05:22that high bar of 80 and a half,

05:24it's 62 and a half year. I think

05:26there's a little value on this

05:27under. You see, I lean that way

05:29too. I don't love the total as

05:31much as I lean to the side in

05:33terms of this matchup, but I

05:34understand what Kevin is saying.

05:36I'll play devil's advocate in

05:37the sense of we have two

05:39different defensive

05:40coordinators, Blake Baker for

05:42LSU. And we also have Lynn that

05:44comes over from UCLA, right? And

05:46we both have two pass happy

05:47offenses. Take away Caleb

05:49Williams and Jaden Daniels from

05:51the equation. We still have

05:52Miller Moss that has experienced

05:54372 in regards to the bowl win

05:56over Louisville and Garrett

05:57Nussmeyer got the bowl win over

05:59Wisconsin, right? Do we feel

06:01like the lack of production with

06:02those quarterbacks is maybe 80%

06:05out of the hundred because LSU

06:07threw for 304 yards per game,

06:09USC 333, right? They're going to

06:11chuck it. So, you know, the

06:13biggest problem too in week one

06:14matchup spent is defensive

06:16secondaries reading coverage,

06:18especially with new schemes. So

06:20if this, let's say in the first

06:21half gets into the like mid

06:23fifties, that might be an area

06:25where I might jump in as opposed

06:27to the pregame number at 64 and

06:29a half. And the quarterback

06:30comparison is also fair as a

06:32representation of these two new

06:34programs entering 2024. Miller

06:36Moss was not the heir apparent

06:38to Caleb Williams. It was Malakai

06:40Nelson, but Miller Moss was

06:42great in the holiday bowl as

06:43maybe we have learned about

06:44Malakai Nelson. He was not the

06:46five-star recruit and best

06:47quarterback in the country that

06:48we expected. He transferred to

06:50Boise. He lost out on the

06:51starting job for the Broncos,

06:53but Miller Moss, a holiday bowl

06:55record, six touchdowns against

06:57a good Louisville defense

06:58throwing for more than 370

07:00yards and Nussmeyer bode his

07:02time in Baton Rouge as well.

07:04Thirteen appearances in the last

07:06three years in the Reliable

07:07Quest Bowl against Wisconsin

07:08last year, 395 yards, three

07:11touchdowns and an interception.

07:14Again, defense is going to be a

07:15key component, not only tonight

07:17as it pertains to the total, but

07:19the season for both of these

07:20teams. Danton Lynn, the former

07:22defensive coordinator at UCLA

07:24makes the short trip to

07:25downtown L.A., takes over as the

07:27D.C. at Southern Cal. Finally,

07:30Alex Grinch was fired by his

07:32longtime friend and head boss in

07:35Lincoln Riley. Blake Baker comes

07:37over from Missouri, a Mizzou team

07:39that ranked in the top half and

07:40the top four of SEC total

07:43defenses each of his two years

07:45in Columbia.

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