NFL Underdogs Continue to Thrive: Trends & Futures Analysis

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00:00You got a lot of dog day afternoon action for me here.

00:11We certainly do, Scotty.

00:12Of course, as we head into week number four of the NFL season, underdogs of six or more

00:19points, 12 and one ATS this season, 12 and one, are you kidding me?

00:27Broncos plus seven and a half for the Jets.

00:29The Jags are plus seven in Houston.

00:31Patriots are plus 10 in San Francisco.

00:33Chargers are plus eight against Kansas City at home.

00:36Lots of big dogs.

00:37I mean, 12 and one, you've got to be, and a lot of outrights too, don't forget that.

00:41A lot of them have won outright.

00:45You know, I guess I have a little bit of a feeling on the Broncos and the Chargers.

00:52I think I saw the Chargers play, everything was going great until it wasn't.

00:57Then Orange Sherbert got stepped on and hurt that ankle again and was done for the day.

01:02They were done for the day.

01:03You knew it.

01:04Like it was inevitable.

01:05But that's to me, eight, it's at home, I believe.

01:10Is it not in SoFi?

01:11I think it is.

01:12That is in SoFi, yes.

01:13Listen, I think they're going to beat them outright.

01:20Forget about eight.

01:21They're going to win the game.

01:23So they have a great running game.

01:25They have a great quarterback.

01:28He is a great quarterback.

01:29He doesn't want anything, but he's great.

01:31That's why he makes all that money.

01:32He's really good.

01:33And he's big.

01:34Like, I saw him the other day, I was, you know, right on the field.

01:40I'm literally right down there and I'm looking at this guy, I'm like, he is something else.

01:43He's a statue.

01:44He's like, he's got it all.

01:46That's what they really like, that prototypical big quarterback, the strong arm, big guy.

01:53I know there's guys like Kyler Murray and that are small and I don't deny he's awesome,

01:59but I'm not a fan of small quarterbacks.

02:01I like Josh Allen.

02:03I like guys that are big.

02:06And I think Fields is bigger than people give him credit for, too.

02:09He's ripped out of his mind, this guy.

02:12I mean, he's in the gym lifting, like shredding.

02:16He's enormous.

02:17I'm not a big fan of little guys, frankly, doing anything.

02:21So, whatever.

02:23I think they can win the game outright.

02:24I really do.

02:25And the Broncos, to me, and the Jets, it's so automatic that the Jets are going to win

02:28that game that it's like the giant game.

02:30They have no chance at all.

02:31The Jets losing to the Broncos.

02:33There's no one on the face of the earth that thinks they're going to lose that game.

02:36Decide to commander a seven and a half, give me the seven and a half of the Broncos against

02:40the Jets.

02:41The worst game of the week, Broncos, Jets will turn out to be a humdinger.

02:46By the way, I just went and looked, Harbaugh did say this afternoon that Herbert is out

02:50of the walking boot and he is going to practice today.

02:53So that's some good news for the Chargers as well, heading into this week.

02:59All right.

03:00It is Wednesday.

03:01On Wednesday, I try to give you a couple futures here in the middle of the week.

03:04First, you mentioned these earlier, offensive rookie of the year odds, of course, going

03:08into the season.

03:10It was Caleb Williams who was the favorite.

03:12That has obviously changed, Scotty.

03:13Jaden Daniels at plus 170 is now the favorite.

03:17Malik Nabors at plus 250 is the second choice.

03:20Marvin Harrison Jr. plus 425 is the third.

03:24And then Caleb Williams at plus 550 is the fourth choice on the odds board right now.

03:31You know, I'm actually starting to think that Bo Nix has passed Caleb Williams in terms

03:38of getting it in the NFL.

03:41He's figured it out in short order.

03:44He gets no love whatsoever.

03:46It's like he's homeless, like he's a squatter or something.

03:49I think he, you know, won big last week.

03:52It's just the beginning for him.

03:54I think that's why Sean Payton's licking his chops.

03:57And none of those other guys, I'd give Worthy a crack.

04:01I think they like throwing to him in Kansas City.

04:04But you know, frankly, I think they got the first three right.

04:08I'm okay with Caleb Williams being fourth at best.

04:13You know, I don't think Bo Nix is better than Bowers.

04:17But I think Bo Nix is giving Caleb Williams a run for his money at being like number four.

04:25They got Nix at six.

04:27And those odds say that he's not going to win it at all.

04:31He's not going to do it.

04:32But I like to ride this wave of Williams, you know, when is this going to happen?

04:39Transformation of the Bears, because they said it was going to happen this year.

04:43First year, automatic.

04:45It's happening automatic.

04:46We're winning it all.

04:47So I want to see it come to fruition, like Justin Fields, where in five years he's playing

04:53for the Steelers, because he never got it done.

04:57You know, he's a big superstar, only on hard knocks.

05:02But on the football field, he's not winning anything.

05:06No, he is not.

05:08That's for sure.

05:09And what a shame it would be if it stayed that way.

05:11Next.

05:12What a horrible shame.

05:13What a shame.

05:14Comeback player of the year.

05:15Now, Aaron Rodgers is even money, of course, with him not playing last year.

05:20As long as the Jets are going to do well, he'll be the favorite.

05:22But there's two names, Scotty, that have gone up the board here.

05:25And now remember, this changes fast.

05:27Last year, Joe Flacco won, and he didn't even play until week, like, 14.

05:32So you got to remember how these things work sometimes.

05:35Darnold is plus 625.

05:37And DeMar Hamlin, who many feel should have won last year just because he played a snap

05:43or two.

05:44Well, guess what?

05:45He's playing more than a snap or two this year, Scotty.

05:46He's their starting safety.

05:47He had a big pick the other night in that game, Monday night game for the Bills.

05:52He has now made a presence on the board at 9-1.

05:55Yeah, look, I'm not going to argue with Aaron Rodgers or Kirk Cousins coming back from Achilles

06:05Joe Burrow is putting up big numbers but not winning.

06:10So thanks so much for coming.

06:12The exit's at the back of the stage.

06:14Go left.

06:16And then Hamlin, everyone loves Hamlin because he died.

06:21They brought him back.

06:23I was near death.

06:24They brought me back.

06:25So I can see why people root for him and not me.

06:29Most people had voted, as you know, in a survey, Carver High, eight out of 10 dentists voted

06:34me dead.

06:35They wanted me dead, actually.

06:36Get rid of him.

06:37Good riddance.

06:38But Joe Burrow, please, Frosty the Snowman tips, OK?

06:45You're not winning.

06:46Why don't you wear some more drip on the red carpet?

06:49Go to some more galas, the Met Gala.

06:52Go to the Oscars and show your fancy.

06:54How about a Formula One race?

06:56I know how famous you are now.

06:58You don't win either, apparently.

07:01So to me, Fields is doing better than Joe Burrow.

07:05What Fields is doing at 3-0, that goes unnoticed?

07:08Of course it does.

07:09Because people think he sucks because the problem was the Chicago Bears, not Justin Fields.

07:16And we're finding that out in short order, too, that the buffoons that run the Bears

07:21over the last several years.

07:22Now, I'm not saying Warren is a buffoon.

07:26He's got legitimate power as president, CEO, everything else.

07:31And he did a great job wherever he's been, Big Ten, whatever.

07:34But he's now in charge.

07:35When they had the previous regimes in Chicago that all crumbled and died and burned, they're

07:41the ones that screwed up Justin Fields.

07:44They certainly are.

07:45Odds to win the AFC and the NFC here, we'll quickly slide these in before we move on to

07:50the baseball.

07:52The Chiefs are still the favorite in the AFC, followed by the Bills and then the Ravens.

07:56The Texans, Jets, they still have the Bengals up there ahead of a lot of teams.

08:00On the NFC side, the Niners are the favorite, even though they're one and two.

08:05Eagles, Lions, Packers, Vikings, Cowboys have been slipping down that list.

08:11I'm glad that we show these every week and that I can actually, suffice it to say, none

08:18of it matters whatsoever.

08:20But we still do it and it's cool, right?

08:23We still have all the odds for things that are going to change over the next several

08:27weeks.

08:28Remember, they play 18 weeks, 17 games, and three wins.

08:32I remember when the Steelers were 11-0 and I had a little excitement.

08:38I thought they were going to win their seventh Super Bowl and they crumbled.

08:41So I don't believe any of this stuff, 3-0, 0-3.

08:45I do believe 0-3, you're in big trouble, mister.

08:48You're not making anything.

08:49So once again, the Bengals gave that guy all that money and he's so famous.

08:57He's so famous he can't win.

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