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Panayam kay DOE Dir. Atty. Rino Abad kaugnay ng pagtaas ng produktong petrolyo
PTVPhilippines
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9/24/2024
Panayam kay DOE Dir. Atty. Rino Abad kaugnay ng pagtaas ng produktong petrolyo
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00:00
We have on the telephone line Director Forr, Oil Industry Management Bureau of the Department of Energy, Sir Rino Abad.
00:07
Good morning, Director Abad. This is Audrey Gorizeta with Dian Carrer of Rise and Shine Philippines.
00:13
Good morning to your program and to our countrymen.
00:18
Okay, Director. The price of oil products has increased again. What is the reason for this?
00:26
Well, I'm not 100% sure, but from what we have read, the effect of this increase is temporary towards the end of the year.
00:43
The biggest reason for this is the increase in the interest of the U.S. Federal Reserve.
00:52
There is a threat of two strong storms in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico.
01:01
Those areas are major producers of oil.
01:06
It looks like there were some disturbances last week.
01:11
Now, another hurricane is approaching.
01:16
Fundamentally, towards the end of the year, the forecast is that the demand is low.
01:25
Our supply is okay.
01:29
There is an offset. Probably, for the next few weeks, we may experience rollbacks again.
01:40
Okay. Let me just repeat, Director. What you said earlier is temporary.
01:45
So, we hope that the increase in the price of oil products will not be that big.
01:51
Yes. Well, this can happen this week and the next week.
01:59
But if we are talking about a trend, most of the reasons are towards a bearish outlook.
02:11
Meaning, the demand is getting weaker.
02:14
The supply is good.
02:15
So, most likely, if it doesn't go down, we are sure that it will not go up.
02:23
That is the good outlook.
02:26
Others said that we are at US$77 per barrel.
02:30
If it goes down, it will be hard to go up to below US$70.
02:38
We are already at US$60.
02:40
What we have been experiencing for the past few years is that the forecast is not comfortable.
02:53
But at the US$70, it looks like we are there and we will continue to experience this until the end of the year.
03:01
Alright, Director.
03:01
For the sake of our consumers, our countrymen,
03:07
why does the price of oil products change almost every week?
03:13
Oil companies buy oil every 3 months, right?
03:17
So, it should be 3 months before there is a price adjustment.
03:21
What is the explanation for this, Sir?
03:23
Well, this is just a system.
03:26
Because when we regulate, in fact, when we regulate,
03:32
oil companies may implement any time that they want to implement a price.
03:38
Because they will discard it.
03:40
That is what the regulated regime said.
03:43
There is no price control, including price schedule.
03:46
There is no such thing.
03:47
However, this has evolved.
03:51
This is still the time of Secretary Reyes.
03:54
Before, it was set every month to put an order on the price.
04:01
But the agreement is that the computation will enter daily.
04:08
The effect of daily changes on the price will not disappear.
04:13
So, the timing of implementing the adjustment is the agreement.
04:20
And it has become a custom or tradition of the downstream oil.
04:27
The request was given by the DOE weekly so that the adjustment will not be disturbed every day.
04:36
Because usually, our price benchmarks have a daily closing price.
04:44
So, if the oil companies can afford it, they can do the daily adjustment.
04:49
But it will be a bit of a mess.
04:51
It will be new. The adjustment of each gas station will not be consistent.
04:59
So, what the oil companies did was to agree every week.
05:03
But the computation will enter daily.
05:07
Director Rino Abad, good morning. This is Dayan Querer.
05:11
Sir, how is the supply of oil in our country?
05:14
We have no issue with the supply.
05:17
In fact, according to the forecast, even in the global stage, the supply is good.
05:23
The economy of China and the US is weak.
05:27
So, this is the effect that we have experienced for several months.
05:33
In fact, if you remember, from August, we were at US$93-US$94 per barrel.
05:41
Now, we are at US$77 per barrel.
05:44
This is how our supply is measured and prepared.
05:49
Okay. Director Abad, for our consumers to understand,
05:55
it is said that if the interest rate in the US decreases,
05:59
it is expected that there will be an oil price hike.
06:01
Can you explain what the connection is,
06:05
what the interest rate is when it comes to the sale of oil, sir?
06:09
Well, the sudden decrease in the US interest rate 50 times,
06:17
we can see here that the use of money from the banks is decreasing.
06:32
So, if it decreases like that,
06:35
before, it was only 2% or 1%,
06:39
in Europe, the interest rate is still negative.
06:42
It means that if you want to do business,
06:45
it is better to borrow money, right?
06:48
The interest rate is low.
06:50
So, in that situation, many businessmen are moving in the business
06:55
because the interest rate is low.
06:57
So, because the demand is increasing,
07:00
including the demand for fuel.
07:02
Sir, the price of kerosene did not change.
07:04
What is the reason for this, sir?
07:06
Well, we cannot say.
07:07
It just did not reach the extent of the decrease last week
07:12
compared to the past week,
07:15
because what we are comparing is the past two weeks,
07:18
the average of the past two weeks,
07:20
and that is where I am guessing what will be the effect this week.
07:24
So, it just did not reach the increase
07:28
when there was a big decrease last week.
07:32
That is the explanation for that.
07:35
But trend-wise, the price increased last week,
07:40
from Monday to Friday.
07:42
It just could not accept the decrease last week.
07:49
So, it could not have an increase this week.
07:53
Attorney, how is the price of LPG?
07:56
Is there any forecast of an increase or decrease in the price?
08:00
Well, historically, this is the period
08:03
when the northern hemispheres will enter the winter period.
08:08
From October, it will be a stocking period.
08:11
November and December, it will go straight to March
08:14
or April next year.
08:16
So, we expect that the demand will increase
08:21
and at the same time, the price will increase.
08:24
But we observed that since July,
08:29
the increases are very small.
08:31
It is averaging around 50 centavos per kilogram.
08:37
So, I suspect that because of the effect
08:41
of the decrease in the crude oil price
08:44
from 94 US dollars per barrel
08:47
in the past two to three months,
08:49
we are now at 77 US dollars per barrel.
08:52
I think that offset coincides with the effect of the LPG price
08:56
that instead of having big increases every month
09:00
when the winter period starts,
09:02
we will not be able to experience such a big increase.
09:05
I remember that for the past few years,
09:07
we were able to reach an adjustment of 7 pesos per kilogram in October.
09:11
But for the past three months,
09:14
we have been seeing an average increase of 50 centavos per kilogram.
09:19
So, most likely, it will increase towards the winter period.
09:25
But the good news is that it is highly unlikely
09:29
that we will suddenly see an increase of 7 pesos per kilogram next month.
09:34
Before we let you go, Mr. Rino Abad,
09:36
I'm sure that some of our motorists
09:39
will be annoyed by the 1 peso and 10 centavos increase
09:42
in the price of each liter of gasoline.
09:44
What is your message to them, sir?
09:47
Well, this is increasing,
09:53
but it has not yet recovered from the decrease.
09:57
Our Dubai crude oil is only reaching 77 pesos per kilogram.
10:06
This is a good news.
10:09
From way back two or three months ago,
10:12
we were at 94 or 93 pesos per kilogram.
10:15
I expect that the price trend will improve
10:22
if it does not decrease or maintain at that level
10:25
towards the end of the year.
10:27
There are cases like this where the factors are offset,
10:34
such as the decrease in the interest rate.
10:36
We expect that to happen because of the price.
10:39
But for the longer perspective of our current trend,
10:44
it seems that our situation will improve towards the year-end.
10:48
Mr. Datot, thank you very much for your time.
10:51
Here at Rise and Shine Philippines,
10:53
I'm Atty. Rino Abad, Director for
10:55
Oil Industry Management Bureau of the Department of Energy.
10:58
Thank you very much.
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