Intense 2024 NL Wild Card Race and MVP Predictions

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00:00Great race that is still ongoing for the wildcard,

00:06specifically in the National League.

00:08If you look right now, 64 losses for the Padres

00:11and the Diamondbacks, 65 for the Mets, 66

00:14for the Atlanta Braves, all of these teams

00:17within two and a half games of one another,

00:20the Mets have just been brilliant, man.

00:23I mean, they have been absolutely incredible

00:25and that has led to a Francisco Lindor MVP push.

00:29He is plus 550 to win the award.

00:31Shohei Ohtani checks in at minus 900.

00:37And I have a bet on Ohtani at a minus 105 price to win MVP.

00:44It just felt like the way he was hitting home runs

00:46and the rest of the competition wasn't gonna really

00:50be there for anybody to take it off of Shohei.

00:56And I look around right now and I still feel

00:59that Ohtani is likely your MVP.

01:01Obviously the books believe the same.

01:05But Francisco Lindor has an argument that worries me.

01:16Again, this is where award betting gets tricky.

01:20But I'll explain what doesn't need to be explained

01:25but just in case, these markets, these bets

01:29are not based on what we would do.

01:32It is what these voters are going to do.

01:36Jason Tatum finals MVP.

01:40You know, I learned, now I thought they would vote Tatum.

01:47Turns out that's not how they saw it.

01:49They went JB.

01:52That's just sometimes, you know,

01:53Lamar Jackson last year, right?

01:56Look, Lamar would have, I would have never considered

01:58Lamar for MVP last season.

02:01Legit wouldn't have been one of the top three choices

02:03on my personal ballot if I had a ballot.

02:09But I knew he was going to win the award.

02:13So I wasn't running to place wagers

02:16on guys underneath Lamar Jackson.

02:20That was unnecessary.

02:22With the Otani situation, I think he's presently MVP.

02:31If you look right now, he leads the National League

02:34in wins above replacement at 7.3.

02:37Lindor is third, in fact, with Matt Chapman

02:42in between the two.

02:43Shout out Matt Chapman and this incredible bounce back year

02:46that he's had in San Francisco.

02:48It's been pretty surprising,

02:51but he's such a good defensive player

02:55that that's obviously, you know, helped out a lot.

02:58He's ranked top five in both offensive and defensive war

03:01in the National League.

03:02And again, that's kind of carried the load there a lot

03:04for the Matt Chapman war season.

03:06That's a big reason why he's not in.

03:07You're not going to win MVP based

03:09on your unbelievable defensive war.

03:12It will help, but playing defense will matter for some.

03:19And why I do slightly worry as an Otani better.

03:24And I could very well just bet Lindor at a number

03:28and be done with it.

03:30But while I see that Otani minus 900

03:34and I think, do I need to?

03:37Well, the Lindor argument is he's an everyday player.

03:42And I would have told you that Otani preseason

03:45was not going to win MVP

03:47because of the fact that he's not a, not everyday player.

03:54He doesn't play the field.

03:57Since he's just hitting,

03:59that's going to cost Otani in this race.

04:06Well, the big thing that went Otani's way

04:09is the top two choices were injured.

04:14Last year's winner, Ronald Acuna Jr. hurt pretty early on

04:20and an early, not runaway,

04:24but an early favorite who was starting to create distance

04:28in his teammate Mookie Betts picks up an injury as well.

04:33And all of a sudden, Otani having a great year

04:39has a lot of runway in front of him.

04:42And he left Bryce Harper behind,

04:44which kind of was always going to be the case.

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