روسيا تطلق عملية لمكافحة الإرهاب في ثلاث مناطق حدودية فرنسا 24_1080

FRANCE 24

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00:00We have another guest, it's you, Alexandre Vautravert, good evening to you.

00:03You are editor-in-chief of the Swiss Military Review and scientific director at the Center for Military History and Prospects.

00:09Thank you for taking the time to answer our questions.

00:11Alexandre Vautravert, first of all, a question about this strike on a supermarket in Kostiantynivka.

00:17Should we see reprisals from Moscow on the incursion led to Kursk?

00:23It's an interpretation of things on our side.

00:27For the past three years, this type of strike has existed.

00:33These strikes are sometimes precise, sometimes much less precise,

00:38due to interference and electronic warfare.

00:42I would say that these two events are not necessarily inextricably linked.

00:49In any case, we come back to this incursion led to Kursk.

00:53Ukrainian soldiers have been deployed on this territory for four days now.

00:56Can we consider that Russia was taken by surprise?

01:00Yes, we can consider that there was a first surprise.

01:03It is the fact that we were not able to detect the concentration of forces that had prepared.

01:12It took several days for those who prepared and then conducted this limited counter-attack operation.

01:22And then, secondly, we realize the weakness of the Russian forces

01:28that are along the border north of Ukraine.

01:32We realize that Russia has concentrated its resources in the Donetsk region and in the south

01:37and may have left some portions of the front.

01:42It should also be remembered, and this will be decisive for the next few days,

01:47that the Russian forces that are available in the surrounding region during this counter-attack

01:56are essentially reserve formations, operational and strategic reserves,

02:02which are mainly used to complete the basic training of young recruits in Russia

02:10and to complete, to fill, if I dare say, the front units.

02:15So, we can imagine that the forces that are now in a hurry to limit,

02:21to counter this attack, are rather second-order forces.

02:26If the Ukrainians were able to penetrate up to 35 km inside the Russian territory,

02:31this is in any case what the Institute for the Study of War affirms,

02:34are these troops, and is Kiev in general, able to carry out other incursions of this type

02:39to other parts of Russia?

02:42Yes, in the way you asked this very specific question, yes.

02:46And I explain it to myself.

02:48The Ukrainian formations that were engaged in this action are two mechanized brigades.

02:55These mechanized brigades have an autonomy, let's say, in combat, of about 3 to 4 days.

03:02An autonomy in terms of logistics, they are able to progress,

03:07to push from 30 to a maximum of 45 km beyond a starting line,

03:13or beyond the border, if you will.

03:16If the Ukrainian plan is to pursue beyond this margin of 30 to 45 km,

03:24additional resources will have to be engaged,

03:27quite considerable resources.

03:29So, we can expect, we can imagine that it is likely,

03:35that this offensive is a limited objective,

03:38and that this offensive will not pursue further objectives.

03:42So what is it?

03:43We know that these troops are located around Sudzha.

03:46Is this a strategic site for Kiev?

03:49No, these are not strategic sites,

03:51but what I think is more interesting and more important,

03:55if we look at the map and the calendar,

04:01is that in order to be able to move sufficient forces,

04:05to be able to solve the problem that has been caused by this Ukrainian counterattack,

04:11the Ukrainians have managed, with relatively limited means,

04:15to gain time, to gain several weeks, perhaps several months,

04:19since, of course, the Russians on their side must release adequate reserves,

04:26must move these reserves, must reorganize these reserves,

04:31and must then carry out their own counterattack.

04:34So we can imagine that the Russian repost will require several weeks,

04:39perhaps several months,

04:41and it is all the time that has been gained in this way for the defense of Ukraine.

04:45So my next question is double, Alexandre Vautravert.

04:48First of all, was this operation carried out with the green light of the American and European allies?

04:53And at the same time, since the Ukrainians have proven that they were able to penetrate the Russian territory in depth,

04:5935 km all the same,

05:01will this encourage the allies to deploy more means?

05:06Well, you have asked more than two questions,

05:09but on the one hand, were the Americans, the Germans or other countries aware?

05:15It is very, very difficult to say,

05:17since in the past the Ukrainians have taken several initiatives

05:22that did not necessarily go in the direction of what was wanted or supported by the Western allies.

05:29What can be said in general is that operational security,

05:34that is to say, the maintenance of secrecy, confidentiality,

05:37the surprise of this action has indeed been safeguarded.

05:43So that's an important point to remember.

05:46So this could happen in other sectors.

05:49Your second question, what is the military impact of this counteroffensive?

05:54As I said, the impact is rather psychological, it is rather political,

05:58and it is rather in terms of calendar,

06:00because to shake the Russian lines from 30 to 40 km is not enough.

06:06The scope of the weapons today is such that it would take a much larger action,

06:13and on a much larger depth,

06:15to really be able to threaten logistics centers,

06:20to be able to threaten airfields.

06:22So we are of course very, very far from having achieved such objectives.

06:28Thank you very much, Alexandre Vautravert.

06:30Thank you for taking the time to answer our questions on France 24.

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