Paris Olympics Basketball: Men's Semifinals Best Bets

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00:00And now the stretch they come at the Olympic Games, of course, we're going to be giving

00:06out some gold medals here on SportsGrid over the next few days in soccer, basketball and

00:11other sports as well.

00:12Paris Olympics has been a huge success, especially for one of the teams in particular in France.

00:18Let's talk about that with Gilbert McGregor, who joins us here on the show.

00:21Gilbert, I mean, home cooking here, without a doubt for France in Paris, I mean, seven

00:27and a half point underdogs with a chance to chase down a silver or maybe even a gold.

00:34And I mean, was it more of what France did you think in this game yesterday against Canada?

00:38Or was it Canada falling flat in this final 82 to 73, the final Canada seven and a half

00:44point favorite getting beat handily?

00:47You know what, Craig?

00:48I think it's a combination of both.

00:49I don't know if that's a cop out answer or not.

00:51But Canada had their worst game of the tournament at the worst possible time.

00:57It's one thing to come out flat and you can't come out flat in an elimination game.

01:01But to come out flat against the home team, who has the crowd behind them, was just the

01:06worst possible circumstance for that Canada team.

01:09France had some of their guys step up and this is a game where Victor Wiminyama didn't

01:12necessarily have his trademark influence and Rudy Gobert barely played.

01:16So, you know, a lot of hope going into that Canada team, a lot of talent on that roster.

01:22And they just came up flat and it's a huge letdown for that Canada program.

01:26But also credit to France, they stepped up at the right time and now they have an opportunity

01:30to play for a medal in front of their home fans, but it doesn't get any easier for them

01:33as they play Germany next.

01:35Yeah.

01:36No, no, no doubt.

01:37And I mean, this game coming up on Thursday, maybe the very biggest of the entire Olympic

01:42Games because we'll get to Team USA, assuming they win.

01:45Let's talk about this game between Germany and France and the odds makers, Gilbert, not

01:49buying it.

01:50Germany, a four and a half point favorite against the team that everyone's going to

01:54be cheering for Thursday, 1130 a.m. Eastern.

01:58We'll have live updates on that game here on Newswire coming up tomorrow.

02:03But by the time it goes off, Gilbert, you're going to need to give your opinion now because

02:07I'll be on the air when it starts.

02:10Can France keep this going here?

02:12Can they keep this close?

02:13You know, I've been high on Germany, even coming into the tournament.

02:17I think that they are the most complete team that complements each other better than anybody

02:21else.

02:22I mean, I met last week, last weekend on Friday in Germany, honestly ran them out of their

02:27own gym.

02:28So I think that's going to be on France's mind.

02:30But I just feel like Germany has a better team and a better shot to make the most of

02:36that opportunity.

02:37Now, they're going to need an extra effort because France has been getting to the free

02:40throw line.

02:41We talk about a little homecoming hook cooking.

02:42Maybe that's the discussion there.

02:43Maybe it isn't.

02:44So they're going to need to give a little bit extra to get the win they need to get.

02:48But I think that they're the better team just because of the way their team is constructed.

02:51France has some issues in the backcourt.

02:53Dennis Schreuder just takes it to another level.

02:55So I think he will be the difference in tomorrow's game.

02:58OK, fair enough.

02:59Now, Team USA, you know, basically impose their will on Brazil like they have not, by

03:05the way, in any game thus far, whether it's been the exhibition or the group stage or

03:09even the medal chasing.

03:11So the odds makers, what I think is really interesting here, Gilbert, have sort of responded

03:17the other way because Serbia, while they're not great, have certainly played well.

03:22Like they're sort of staying in games or at least the point spread here.

03:25Maybe that's probably the best way to put it.

03:27Team USA only 16 and a half point favorites, Gilbert, against Serbia.

03:31We know that Serbia covered against Team USA when they played them thus far.

03:34The total is 184 and a half Thursday at 3 o'clock Eastern.

03:40So no one's picking Serbia on the money line to upset them outright at plus 920.

03:45But can Serbia keep this close enough to make it interesting?

03:50I do think that they will keep it close.

03:53Serbia was tested yesterday by Australia.

03:55They need to come back from down 24 points.

03:58So I do think they might be a little bit tired from the effort that it took for them to win

04:02that game.

04:03That being said, this is the third time that these two teams have met during the Olympic

04:07cycle.

04:08It was a little bit closer during the exhibitions and Team USA kind of ran the score up during

04:12group play.

04:13So I think that now that this is the quarterfinal or the semifinal stage, the knockout round,

04:19I think that Serbia will try to slow the game down and make it a little bit uglier because

04:22that's really their best chance to make things interesting against Team USA.

04:26We know that they have Nikola Jokic, but they also have Bogdan Bogdanovic and some other

04:30talented players on that roster.

04:31So if they can make the game a little bit uglier, they can hang around a little bit

04:34longer than people probably expect them to.

04:36All right.

04:37So now we're going to run through these odds here because Gilbert's already planted his

04:41flag, so to speak, on Team USA winning the gold like everybody else.

04:44So I don't want to waste a lot of time on this.

04:45So the odds to win the gold medal is still Team USA at minus 600.

04:50And you see Germany, Serbia, and France there.

04:52So let's go to the next graphic, guys, because this one's sort of pointless.

04:56How about the odds to win the silver medal, Gilbert?

04:59I know that you have been big on Germany.

05:01They are minus 150 here.

05:04France is the team that's jumped up the highest in terms of odds.

05:06I think to win the silver, they were four or five to one.

05:09Now they're plus 180.

05:11Should Serbia somehow shock Team USA?

05:15That 19 to 1 is going to be really, really juicy there at that point, but I don't think

05:19anybody's predicting that.

05:20So are you going to stick with Germany here to win the silver?

05:23I'll stick with Germany, but I'll look at that.

05:25And if you somehow believe that they can win the gold, then maybe taking Team USA being

05:28the team that they lose to in that game might be some value there.

05:32I just think that Germany, these guys are really familiar with one another.

05:37They've played in a number of international tournaments.

05:39They won the Basketball World Cup last year, and they beat Team USA on the path to do so.

05:45So it does feel like we've been on the crash course to see USA versus Germany in the gold

05:49medal game.

05:50Whether you see it going one way or the other, I do think there is a formula for Germany

05:54to win that game.

05:55And I think that they have the best chance of anybody else available to beat Team USA.

06:00But they have to get there.

06:02By the way, before we get to the women today at 3.30 Eastern, Gilbert, fair to say Team

06:07USA still would be a double-digit favorite in the gold game against Germany?

06:10Do you think that's accurate?

06:11They haven't set the odds yet for that, but I'm just asking your opinion.

06:13I don't know.

06:14These are two teams that played really closely during the exhibition game.

06:18So we might see something like an eight and a half or nine and a half point spread, maybe,

06:22especially since the game is being played in Europe.

06:24Got it.

06:25Okay.

06:26Team USA, the women, also going for the gold.

06:28They play 3.30 this afternoon.

06:30So let's hit on this game real quick against Nigeria.

06:32I don't know anything of Nigeria.

06:35Team USA is 28 and a half point favorites.

06:37It's the biggest favorite they've been thus far.

06:38Do they clobber Nigeria and move on, or does Nigeria have a player I'm unaware of here?

06:43You know, Nigeria has a great story.

06:46This is a very prideful team.

06:47It's the first African nation to ever advance to the quarterfinals, men or women, at the

06:52Olympics.

06:53But I just think that Team USA has a little too much talent and too much of a size advantage

06:56over them.

06:57They've been having slow starts, so maybe Nigeria will keep it close early.

07:00But I think that Team USA pulls away.

07:01All right.

07:0228 and a half point favorites today.

07:04Robert, thanks again for coming on.

07:05Appreciate it.

07:06We'll talk again soon.

07:07Thanks, Greg.

07:08Looking forward to it.

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