Growing concern over Ukraine aid as Orban takes over EU presidency

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00:00We can speak to Nikolas Tenzer, a visiting professor at Sciences Po University in Paris.

00:05Hello to you, Nikolas, thank you for speaking to Paris Direct.

00:09On Monday, Hungary's leader, Viktor Orban, takes over the rotating presidency of the

00:13European Council.

00:15Some have called Orban pro-Russian, others say that's missing some nuance.

00:19How would you characterize his position on this war between Ukraine and Russia?

00:26Well, I think that basically, you know, Orban is certainly a pro-Putin guy, but of course

00:31he also knows that he needs the EU, which is also important in this story that's before

00:37the rotating presidency of Hungary, the other EU leaders have secured at least negotiation

00:45accession talks with Ukraine and Moldova.

00:48And I think that from this point of view, that's reassuring because we cannot expect

00:52certainly the Hungarian presidency to take new initiatives regarding the support to

00:59Ukraine and the delivery of weapons.

01:01And I think that even during this presidency, all the other EU member states will do their

01:08best to just prevent Hungary to block any kind of new initiative.

01:14So with Hungary taking over that presidency, you think we're in for a prolonged period

01:19of inaction?

01:22Well, everything will depend, of course, on the results of the election in France.

01:29I mean, that's a true concern, because if we have the major power in the EU right now,

01:34France was very active in supporting Ukraine.

01:37You remember the stance of President Macron saying that he wants to send military

01:42instructors to Ukraine, that he won't provide Ukraine with Mirage 2000 new fighter jets.

01:48Well, everything could be, you know, certainly jeopardized.

01:53But if the elections of France have, I would say, a good result, it means without a full

01:59victory of National Rally Marine Le Pen's party, then maybe I think it will be very

02:05difficult for Hungary alone, plus let's say Slovakia or Austria, to block, I mean, the

02:11support.

02:12So, well, we will see after Monday or after mostly after the United States, I mean, the

02:18second round of the election in France, what could happen.

02:21And even then, let's not forget, we have a U.S. presidential election in November.

02:26What happens if Donald Trump's in the White House?

02:28Yes, I mean, that's a true concern, because if we have no more support for France, if

02:35we have no more support from the U.S., then certainly Ukraine will be in a very difficult

02:40position, because I cannot imagine that with only, let's say, the U.K., Poland, plus the

02:46Baltic states and some other states, it will be certainly enough, certainly, to support

02:52Ukraine until victory.

02:55And right now, also, we have this concern.

02:57I was in Kyiv at the beginning of this month.

03:00Everyone said, well, that was very good to unblock, I mean, the deadlock in the U.S.

03:04Congress.

03:05We welcome all the support for the other member states.

03:07We welcome all the security agreements that we have right now, and just after that to

03:12assign a new security agreement between Ukraine and the EU.

03:17But it will be certainly not enough to reconquer the territories still occupied by Russia.

03:23And I think we need to do much more.

03:26And if we have, I mean, Trump in the White House, plus the national rally having a majority

03:30in the House in France, certainly it will be very difficult to move forwards and basically

03:36to not only to protect Ukraine, but to make Ukraine win this war fully.

03:43Yeah.

03:44Ukraine's president, Volodymyr Zelensky, said he's drawing up what he calls a comprehensive

03:47plan for how he believes the war with Russia should end.

03:51Of course, that would likely include Ukraine's territorial integrity.

03:55The only thing is we know Putin doesn't want to negotiate.

03:57So what is the significance of Zelensky's plan?

04:01What is the point of it?

04:02Who is he really trying to address?

04:05And what's his message in it?

04:07I think the first message is, first of all, that, of course, Ukraine wants peace.

04:12And basically, if we consider the suffering of the Ukrainian people, we have already certainly

04:17more than 100,000 people died, you know, died, you know, in Ukraine because of Russia.

04:25We want peace.

04:26We are not an obstacle to peace.

04:28Certainly Russia is because Russia has declared this war.

04:31And basically, Vladimir Putin doesn't want to end this war.

04:35It will continue, whatever it takes.

04:37Even if you have 1 million servicemen, you know, from Russia dying, you know, in this

04:41war, certainly Putin will continue.

04:44And we also know that, you know, in the 10 points peace plan of Zelensky, and I think

04:48that the new peace conference will certainly, you know, endorse this plan, there must be

04:55a full territorial integrity of Ukraine guaranteed by all the allies.

05:00Not only, I mean, NATO, but also some thousand countries.

05:02That's what we expect.

05:04Let's be very clear.

05:05First of all, if we give up on some territories, it will be a full surrender.

05:09That will be certainly a breach of international law.

05:13And it will mean that the West will have lost, I mean, any kind of legitimacy to say that

05:19it is abiding by international law.

05:21And the second thing is that we perfectly know that as long as we have Ukrainian territories

05:26occupied by the Russians, it means more torture, summary execution, deportation of children,

05:33which is a crime of genocide under the conventions of December 9th, 1948.

05:38So we cannot accept to give Mr. Putin a license to kill.

05:42And that's why we have basically not to surrender.

05:45We have to continue.

05:46Yeah.

05:47In about two weeks time, the U.S. is hosting the NATO summit.

05:50The Security Alliance will be marking 75 years since its creation there.

05:55Do you expect Vladimir Putin to send a message to sort of hang over that anniversary?

06:04Well, certainly I think that Putin, you know, will continue with, I mean, his threats.

06:10I mean, and all the narratives that the war of NATO against Russia and this kind of thing.

06:15But first of all, we have not to buy into this kind of narrative.

06:20But having said that, I am rather pessimistic because we still know that the U.S. and Germany

06:24oppose a full membership of Ukraine to NATO right now.

06:28In Vilnius summit last year, I know it was on July 11th and 12th, basically it was a

06:35kind of remake of the Bucharest summit of 2008.

06:39There was no clear signal for Ukraine's accession to NATO.

06:43There was no date, no full commitment.

06:46I think I could be very pessimistic of what, I mean, the next Washington summit will resemble.

06:52I cannot see what kind of real progress, very unfortunately, with the exception of commitment

06:59in words, will result from this summit.

07:03Professor, thank you very much for your time.

07:05Nicholas Tenzer speaking to us.

07:06Thank you.

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