Latest odds on the UK General Election revealed

National World - LocalTV

The way the BetFair exchange works is that odds are generated based on who's betting on what, meaning massive margins for change as pre-election events unfold.

Transcript

00:00 Our two most popular markets are most seats, which Labour absolutely dominate at the minute.

00:07 They're as short as 1 to 33 to win the most seats at the next election, which is roughly

00:11 around a 97% chance.

00:14 And then another popular market of ours is the overall majority market.

00:18 Around £3.6 million has been staked on that one market alone, of which 72% of that money

00:25 has been in favour of Sir Keir Starmer's party.

00:29 They are the overwhelming favourites to win an overall majority at 1 to 11, which gives

00:35 them about a 92% chance.

00:37 So punters really, really favouring Labour in this general election.

00:43 But then we do have a whole host of other markets available, such as how many seats

00:47 will the Conservatives lose at the upcoming general election?

00:51 And looking at that market, it's not good reading for Rishi Sunak.

00:56 Around 201 or more seat losses is the overwhelming favourite, at a short odds of 1 to 3.

01:03 So not looking good for the Prime Minister at the minute.

01:06 Well, that's how the political betting markets are looking for the upcoming general election

01:10 at the moment.

01:11 But just how much can we rely on the odds to predict the outcome of future events?

01:16 The way the Betfair exchange works is that the odds are generated based on who's betting

01:20 on what, meaning massive margins for change as pre-election events unfold.

01:24 The Brexit referendum, where at midnight when the exit poll came out, punters were saying

01:31 it was going to be Remain.

01:33 However, what we did see were when those votes started to trickle in, punters were really,

01:39 really quick to flip those odds and to make it so that Leave would be the favourite.

01:44 And ultimately, that was the outcome.

01:46 So accuracy and the speed in which these markets react is really, really interesting as well.

01:54 as things stand punters are heavily favoring a Labour majority.

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