Week Ahead 20/05/2024 – Thundery showers and more – Met Office weather forecast UK - video Dailymotion

Met Office

This is the Met Office UK Weather forecast for the week ahead 20/05/2024 – There will be some heavy and thundery showers this week before a potentially very wet day for some on Wednesday. Later in the week the weather may be a little quieter but not totally dry. Bringing you this weekend’s weather forecast is Alex Burkill.  You may also enjoy: – Podcasts exploring weather and climate https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLGVVqeJodR_brL5mcfsqI4cu42ueHttv0 – Daily weather forecasts https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLGVVqeJodR_Zew9xGAqYVtGjYHau-E2yL – Deep dive in-depth forecasts https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLGVVqeJodR_ZGnhyYdlEpdYrjZ-Pmj2rt

Transcript

00:00 Hello, plenty of showers to come this week, even some thunderstorms and possibly some

00:05 heavy persistent rain on Wednesday. But starting off looking at the bigger picture as we go

00:10 through Monday night into Tuesday and there are some low pressure systems nearby, none

00:15 of these over the UK. So it's a relatively quiet night and a relatively quiet start to

00:20 the day on Tuesday, though there will be some showers from quite early on, particularly

00:24 across central parts of England. And these showers are going to become more widespread

00:28 as we go through the day. Some of them will be heavy, some of them will be thundery, especially

00:33 across parts of Northern Ireland and southwest England. Here there's a reasonable chance

00:38 that we will see some torrential downpour, some frequent lightning. All of this could

00:42 cause some disruption, particularly on the roads. Even elsewhere, there's the risk of

00:46 some heavy, possibly thundery showers, but also some bright or sunny spells and with

00:51 temperatures around or a little bit above average for the time of year. In any sunshine,

00:56 it's going to feel pretty warm. Quite widely we're seeing highs in the mid to high teens

01:00 Celsius, some places getting into the low 20s. Worth noting towards some North Sea coastal

01:05 parts, a bit of low cloud lingering here and a bit of an onshore breeze. It is going to

01:09 feel markedly fresher. As we go through Tuesday night into Wednesday, our attention turns

01:14 to an area of low pressure that is developing across Europe. That's going to push its way

01:19 westwards towards the UK. There is some uncertainty as to how far west it's going to get, and

01:25 that plays a part in how much rain we're going to see on Wednesday. But it does look likely

01:29 that we're going to see some pretty heavy, persistent rain, at least across eastern parts

01:33 as we go through the day. It's not going to be completely dry further west. There'll be

01:37 plenty of showers around. And again, these could be heavy, possibly thunder at times,

01:41 but a greater chance of seeing some brighter or sunny spells in between the showers than

01:46 there will be further east. In the west, the winds don't look particularly strong, but

01:51 in eastern parts in association with the heavy rain, it could be quite blustery too. Temperatures,

01:56 well, they look fairly similar to Tuesday, really. But obviously, if you're under the

02:01 cloud and the rain towards the east, they are going to be a little bit more suppressed

02:04 and feeling quite a bit more unpleasant. As we go through Wednesday night into Thursday,

02:09 we are going to see that system gradually making its way towards the north. Still some

02:13 uncertainty about the track that it's going to take, and that plays a part again in the

02:18 rain that we're likely to see on Thursday. So worth bearing in mind that it could be

02:22 a bit wetter on Thursday than the graphics here show, particularly across parts of Scotland

02:27 could be a bit more rain around, at least to start off with, but it's likely to clear

02:32 away towards the north as we go through the day. Still some outbreaks of showery rain

02:36 following in behind, but especially for eastern parts, Thursday does look like it will be

02:40 drier than on Wednesday. Some bright, sunny spells again, but temperatures do look like

02:45 there'll be a degree or so down compared to Tuesday and Wednesday. Now, in terms of the

02:50 rainfall totals that we can expect as we go through Wednesday and Thursday, and here are

02:54 our forecast 48 hour rainfall totals, and they're suggesting that particularly over

02:59 parts of Scotland, some eastern parts of England, we could see in excess of 50 millimetres.

03:04 Now, this is from the latest Met Office model run, and I mentioned there has been some uncertainty.

03:10 If we look at previous Met Office model runs, so this is from midnight on Monday morning,

03:15 this is from midday on Sunday, and this is from midnight on Sunday morning. You can see

03:19 there's quite a change in where we're likely to see the heaviest rain if we take the middle

03:25 model run here, and it has a very wet picture across a large chunk of the UK, and if this

03:30 came off, then some places could see in excess of 100 millimetres. But I don't think that's

03:35 the most likely outcome at the moment. I think the current model run, keeping the heaviest

03:39 rain towards the east is most likely, but nonetheless, that heavy persistent rain could

03:43 be impactful for some. That low pressure system lingering in the North Sea, but the rain in

03:49 association with it does clear away towards the north as we go into Friday. So far northern

03:54 parts of Scotland may start Friday with quite a bit of cloud and some outbreaks of rain,

03:59 a bit dry and perhaps brighter, or if not sunnier further south across parts of Scotland,

04:04 north east England, Northern Ireland, there could be some decent sunshine. Looks like

04:08 it will stay a bit cloudier towards more central southern parts of England and Wales, though

04:12 I would expect some bright spells to develop in amongst this cloud. And again, we are going

04:17 to see quite a few showers, these perhaps most frequent across parts of the southwest.

04:22 And again, there could be some thunder mixed in with these as well. Temperatures once more

04:26 mid to high teens or possibly low 20 Celsius. As we go into the weekend, and it's likely

04:32 to quieten down for a little bit. So Friday night into Saturday, relatively quiet and

04:36 then a mostly dry start to the day on Saturday. However, there is a front likely to be waiting

04:41 out in the west. And so after a mostly dry start to the weekend, we're likely to see

04:46 some rain pushing its way in from the west as we go through Saturday and more so into

04:51 Sunday. But with that, we are also likely to see our temperatures rising. So it should

04:55 start to feel a bit warmer than it will have done through much of the week. We will, of

04:59 course, keep you up to date with the forecast. We do have a number of warnings and they are

05:03 likely to change through the next few days. So do stay up to date by subscribing to our

05:07 YouTube channel. Bye bye.

05:08 [BLANK_AUDIO]

Week Ahead 20/05/2024 – Thundery showers and more – Met Office weather forecast UK

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