Titan Q4: Revenue Up 20% To ₹12,494 Cr YoY | NDTV Profit - video Dailymotion

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00:00Amit, great to have you in our studios at NDTV Profit.

00:05Thank you for having me on, Tamanna.

00:07Yeah, alright, so let's begin with your overview, sort of what's happening in the markets right now.

00:13We were talking briefly in the break, Amit, about how global queues don't look too bad.

00:20They've gotten over their fear of will he, won't he, power cut.

00:25Your Indian elections are largely priced in towards policy continuity.

00:30What are the reasons for the jitters that we've been seeing in the last few sessions?

00:35Right, a few reasons, Tamanna. Firstly, I think the global macros,

00:41if you look in the rear view mirror, then things actually look pretty good.

00:46But if you were to look in the front view mirror, I reckon that there is this sense

00:52which is coming into the markets that the economic data is no longer as robust as it used to be.

00:59And we look at this among the plethora of data points that we look at,

01:04US Economic Surprises Index has seen one of its sharpest down move

01:11from plus 60 levels to minus 10 levels in the last four weeks.

01:15And that's a very, very sharp down move. So whether it is retail spending

01:20that is looking very iffy, the fiscal impulse is going to be negative in US

01:25because there is so much of awareness about the fact that US fiscal deficit

01:29is way, way above what it should be. So the fiscal impulse is negative.

01:34The monetary impulse is still negative in the world with interest rates as high in US

01:39and with quantitative tightening still going on in US.

01:43The economic data is beginning to slow down.

01:47You do not see that in the equity markets in US because of the fact that

01:53people had become way too risk averse getting into the result season.

01:58So there has been a little bounce. But more importantly, the bond yields have come down

02:03because of the softening US data. So that has given sort of a lease of hope

02:08to the equity markets in US. But if you look at the front view mirror,

02:13we clearly see signs of a big slowdown emerging in US.

02:17I think starting from this quarter, we are actually looking at US either being

02:22in the negative territory for GDP growth or maybe in the sub 1%.

02:27So this is going to be discounted over the next few weeks and months to come.

02:31So global macros is not looking good at all. If you look at what's going to happen

02:36in the next 15 to 18 months, even from the Indian standpoint,

02:40one of the reasons behind the jitters is because we track the probabilities

02:45of the election outcomes very, very closely getting into every major election,

02:49not just in India, but across the world. And in India, a few weeks back,

02:54the expected number that was coming in from the bookies and the trading

02:59that goes on in the Indian election outcome, 325 was the BJP number

03:06that we were hearing till about two to three weeks back.

03:10And that number has sort of slightly moved down to 315.

03:14Now that doesn't change who the next Prime Minister is going to be

03:17or who the next ruling party is going to be.

03:20You are referring to the BJP number or the NDA number?

03:22No, I am actually talking about the BJP number.

03:25So that has sort of slightly moved down in the last two weeks.

03:30So directionally, it is not looking great, even though in an absolute sense,

03:36they are still way above the 50% mark. So there is still not much doubt about

03:41who the next PM or who the next ruling party is going to be.

03:45But it's just that the environment, which was looking so sanguine

03:49till a few weeks back, is looking somewhat less sanguine.

03:52And when markets are priced to perfection the way they have been,

03:57even these little bit of jitters, either coming from the US macro data

04:01or from little bit of geopolitical or political headwinds,

04:05can easily shave off, let's say, about one or two percentage points

04:09from the market at any point. And I would also like to mention here

04:12that the small cap and mid cap space in India, plus the micro cap space,

04:16that is looking more vulnerable than the large cap space.

04:21Again, because of the sheer euphoria there, the kind of inflows that we've seen

04:25and the valuations, they do not give us any room for comfort.

04:28Sure, Amit. So on the global side, if I can come in to try and understand,

04:34would you therefore be long bonds? Would that be the way to go at this point?

04:40What should one do as an investor?

04:43Excellent, Harsh. So absolutely, long term bonds is the way to go,

04:48as far as we can see. So we are long India bonds right up to 2053

04:54and even 2063 Government of India bonds.

04:57So that is how bullish we are on duration in India.

05:00But even more than India, we are bullish on the US government bonds

05:04because we've got products in India, we've got products globally.

05:08So we have been buying US 20 and 30-year government bonds.

05:12And we believe, because the kind of run-up that we've seen in the US bond yields

05:16is way higher than the run-up that you've seen in the India bond yields.

05:19So over the next 18 months, we are looking at a slowdown and a recession

05:24in the world led by US and Europe and also China,

05:28which would mean that the inflation numbers go down.

05:32When inflation numbers go down, the central banks start cutting interest rates

05:36and you would see a massive flow of money into long term bonds.

05:40I can tell you that last two years, the long term bonds in US

05:45have had the worst time in last 300 years.

05:48That's the kind of beer market you've seen in government bonds,

05:51long term government bonds in US and of course, even in UK.

05:54I think over the next 15 to 18 months, a lot of that is going to reverse

05:59and long term government bonds could become a great asset class in India,

06:03in US, in Germany and in so many parts of the world.

06:07Sure, Amit. Amit, also just with regard to the triggers,

06:11we've seen a decent-ish cool off when it comes to inflation,

06:16especially global inflation. It's come off.

06:19Of course, there's still some way to go and every opportunity the Fed gets,

06:24they keep reiterating that. But what would those triggers be?

06:29What would those triggers be which you would look out for

06:33to believe that there is that inflection point where you stop buying debt

06:37and start switching over to equity? What are those key triggers?

06:42Yeah. So, Harsh, we are looking at a protracted global slowdown

06:47over the next three years. It's not going to be a blink and you miss it

06:52kind of a low economic phase. This is, in my opinion,

06:58from whatever we've studied over last 500 years of capitalistic history,

07:02this could be a protracted economic slowdown because of which

07:07the equity markets could be in a sort of, you know,

07:12in a downward mode for a few years. But that doesn't mean that

07:16there would not be any opportunities in the equity space.

07:19So, we have been playing beer market rallies in every single beer market

07:23in last three decades. And I can safely tell you that

07:27there are going to be some amazing opportunities because

07:30when the pendulum swings from extreme euphoria to extreme panic

07:34and the positions are squared up and longs are liquidated,

07:38you get some amazing entry points. So, we were extremely bullish on equities

07:42last year, October, when the markets came down because of rising bond yields

07:46and in March last year when the markets came down because of the banking crisis

07:50in US and Europe. So, there are going to be many such opportunities

07:54where we would be buying. Amit, three, three. And, you know,

07:56I don't know if they're brief. You can look at us when you're talking to us

07:59in the studio, Amit. The cameras will catch you. It's a fun chat we're having.

08:03So, you're saying lots of opportunities. Name three in the Indian markets.

08:06The more specific you go, the better for our viewers.

08:09Are you talking in terms of specific stocks?

08:11Preferably, if not, then sectors.

08:13Okay. So, where we are in the economic cycle for India and for the world in general,

08:18we would not want to buy materials. We would not want to buy any company

08:23which has got high operating leverage. So, autos is a no-no.

08:27Manufacturing is a no-no. Materials is a no-no.

08:30So, what is in our comfort zone is, let's say, solid PSU banks

08:35because we believe there is going to be an NPS cycle, but it's not beginning yet.

08:40There could be some time before the next NPS cycle bites.

08:44So, which would mean the likes of State Bank of India with a P ratio of,

08:47let's say, about 11-12. The likes of Kotak Bank, the likes of HDFC Bank

08:52could be great buys. We like oil marketing companies

08:55because they are still trading at 5 or 6 P ratios.

08:59And they are going to be making a lot of money over the next few years

09:02because petrol and, I mean, diesel may be a fuel of the past,

09:06but petrol is not going anywhere in the next 5 to 7-8 years.

09:09So, we like oil marketing companies. We like some of these utility players.

09:13We like PSU banks. We like some low value, low P ratio private sector banks.

09:19So, that's the space we like. We are in the, we want to catch stocks

09:24where the earning yields are great, where the dividend yields are possibly good,

09:29but we do not want stocks which are high on the operating leverage

09:33because that's where the maximum damage is going to happen.

09:36Small and mid cap, the kind of small cap run up you've seen so far.

09:41Did you, you know, have a chance to participate in it, book profits?

09:45Would you stay away?

09:46We did participate in it, let's say, last year March,

09:51but they moved out of our comfort zone sometime in August, September of last year.

09:57And since then, we have confined ourselves to large caps.

10:01So, we missed out. I am not saying it was a great decision in hindsight.

10:04We have missed out on a run up in the small cap and mid cap.

10:08But I would do that because I think the kind of price damage

10:13and the kind of time correction that could happen in that space

10:16is going to be pretty, it's going to be pretty damaging.

10:19So, I would rather miss out on the last 10-15 percentage points of the bull run

10:24than risk getting caught with the bag at the wrong time when the music stops

10:30and then see my holdings go down in both in terms of price and time.

10:34You know, that's the trickiest bit, figuring out where the music stops in the Indian markets.

10:39If you listen to some, I mean, it's an ongoing party, definitely.

10:43But different view from you, Amit. So, great to have you today.

10:47We're just a few minutes from close. So, I'm going to wrap it up

10:50and just get last calls on PTSD. But welcome back anytime.

10:54Amit Goel there in our studios today.

Titan Q4: Revenue Up 20% To ₹12,494 Cr YoY | NDTV Profit

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