The Scotsman Bulletin Monday April 29 2024 #HumzaYousaf

The Scotsman

Scotsman deputy editor Alan Young speaks to political editor Alistair Grant about the latest in the First Minister Humza Yousaf saga

Transcript

00:00 Hello and welcome to the Scotsman's Daily Bulletin for Monday on a huge day in Scottish

00:15 politics. We expect First Minister Humza Yousaf to step down. I'm Alan Young, I'm Deputy Editor

00:23 of the Scotsman and I'm joined from our Edinburgh office by our Political Editor Alistair Grant.

00:28 Alistair, things are moving very quickly now. Bring us up to date with what we know at the moment.

00:34 Yeah, so very much expecting Humza Yousaf to resign as First Minister or announce his intention to

00:40 resign as First Minister later on today. Expecting a potential press conference at Bute House,

00:46 his official residence in Edinburgh just down the road from where I am now. Obviously,

00:51 events have been moving extremely quickly but this is in the aftermath of his decision to end the

00:56 Bute House agreement, the co-operation agreement between the SNP and the Greens on Thursday last

01:02 week. I think that will ultimately go down in Holyrood history as a catastrophic miscalculation.

01:08 He obviously thought that at the time he was doing it, a kind of act of leadership,

01:12 showing strength, ending that agreement before the Green members had a chance to vote in it,

01:17 as they were planning to do in a few weeks' time. I don't know how he managed to miscalculate this

01:23 so badly but I think he was taken aback by two things. I think he was taken aback by the scale

01:27 of the Green anger, by the sheer fury, the sense of betrayal that the Greens had. I think he was

01:34 also taken aback by the speed at which events moved. I think they probably had war-gamed or

01:40 game-planned a scenario where as a minority government they would face a vote of no

01:43 confidence. I think they obviously would have had that in mind. I don't think they expected

01:47 it to happen on the same day as he'd announced that Bute House agreement was coming to an end.

01:52 I think it took them by surprise and I think it also took them by surprise that the Greens,

01:56 on that same day, immediately announced that they would back that no confidence motion in

02:00 Humza Yousaf as First Minister. And his route through this was just looking increasingly narrow

02:05 over the weekend. On Friday, sources close to the First Minister were briefing that the Greens could

02:11 yet change their mind, that there's, you know, a lot of movement can happen in the space of a week.

02:15 We then had the Greens coming out, co-leaders Patrick Harvie, Lorna Slater, making it quite

02:20 clear that they weren't going to change their mind. As far as they were concerned, they'd lost

02:24 confidence in Humza Yousaf. We then had, obviously, a situation where he could have gone to

02:30 Alex Salmond's Alaba party for support. They have a single MSP in Holyrood, Ash Regan. That would

02:35 have been enough to bring him over the line in terms of the no confidence votes, but doing a

02:40 deal with Alaba would have been very unpalatable to huge sections of the SNP, sections of the SNP

02:46 parliamentarians as well. Alex Salmond remains an unpopular figure in sections of the SNP. We had

02:52 figures like Pete Wishart, the long-serving SNP MP, Stuart Macdonald, the SNP MP, coming out over

02:58 the weekend in social media, making it clear that they did not want a deal with Alex Salmond's Alaba

03:03 party. Also worth saying, even if he had gone down that route, because the parliamentary arithmetic

03:09 in Holyrood is so tight, it wouldn't have given him enough of a majority to actually pass legislation

03:14 going forward. So he still would have had to try to seek support from MSPs and other political

03:20 parties to get things done, to pass things like the Scottish budget. And that is, of course,

03:25 how minority government works. We've had that in Scotland in the past. We're quite used to it.

03:29 But I think Humza Yousaf was potentially facing a uniquely hostile parliament, and that would have

03:34 been a problem for him going forward, particularly with the Greens as furious as they are.

03:39 Indeed. So if and when, or when he does step down, what's likely to happen then? I would

03:48 like to look inside the SNP for a caretaker leader. Yeah, so if he resigns as First Minister,

03:56 it starts this 28-day period in which a new First Minister needs to be found. And if they aren't

04:01 found at the end of that period, we're getting into a kind of early Holyrood election territory.

04:06 I think that's still probably unlikely at this stage, although I wouldn't rule it out because

04:11 politics is so unpredictable at the moment. But I think it's probably quite likely that there'll

04:15 be a figure that comes forward in the SNP that, for example, could get the support of the Greens.

04:19 People look to figures like Neil Gray, the current Health Secretary, Jenny Gilruth, the current

04:24 Education Secretary, even John Swinney, the former Deputy First Minister, as a kind of caretaker

04:30 figure who could maybe take over in the interim period. I think it'd be worth looking today to

04:34 see if Humza Yousaf actually resigns on the spot as First Minister, triggering that 28-day period,

04:40 or whether he just announces, you know, perhaps steps down as SNP leader and announces his

04:44 intention to resign as First Minister when and if a new figure comes forward who can take control.

04:49 So I think that's something to look for today, the language that he uses. But essentially,

04:54 they're going to have to find someone realistically within the SNP who can come forward and get the

04:59 support of MSPs. There's obviously a lot of talk about Kate Forbes, the former SNP leadership

05:06 contender as a potential candidate here. I think there's huge support for her within sections of

05:12 the SNP. No one doubts her capability as a minister, as a former minister. I think there'd

05:18 be problems there. She would not get the support of the Greens, for example. And even as similar

05:23 issue to Humza Yousaf, even if she tried to just, you know, govern with the support of Alibaba,

05:27 she wouldn't have enough of a majority to pass legislation. So she'd be then having to go to

05:31 unionist parties to try and get some support from them. So I think she has a difficult option. She

05:36 would also be unpopular with another section of the SNP, who see her, who kind of don't like her

05:42 socially conservative views. So there could be potentially splits within the SNP over that.

05:47 So I think, I don't think there are any easy options for them going forward.

05:51 But the most likely thing is that they will pick a figure who could get the support of the Greens,

05:56 I think. Indeed. Thanks very much for that, Alistair. I'll let you go. We've got a very busy

06:01 day ahead. Certainly, please keep an eye on Scotsman.com throughout the day, where we'll have

06:06 all the very latest news and reaction. We have a live blog on politics events running now. If you

06:14 can, please do subscribe and then you'll be able to read absolutely everything on the site. And if

06:19 you're out and about today, as ever, pick up a copy of the paper from me and from Alistair. It's bye

06:24 for now.

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