Farmers in industrialized and developing countries are concerned about their survival. New climate protection requirements are being implemented, subsidies are being eliminated and imports are coming from abroad. Who will be the winners and losers?
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00:00 Farmer's subsidies are being cut worldwide, driving them out onto the streets.
00:07 There is a change in the global markets that we have never seen in history.
00:14 At the same time, they will have to produce more and more in order to feed up to 10 billion people in the future.
00:22 We will need every square centimeter of arable land.
00:27 The challenges facing agriculture are enormous.
00:30 Who will be the winners in the future and who will be the losers?
00:37 The EU is mostly self-sufficient in the important foodstuffs, but it could soon lose that status due to what's known as the Green Deal.
00:46 It wants to make its agricultural sector more sustainable, with drastic consequences for the world.
00:54 The Green Deal alone would cut wheat production in the European Union in half,
00:59 and the European Union would go from being an important net exporter to a net importer of wheat.
01:06 What makes matters worse is that the European Union has now adopted the Natural Restoration Program,
01:12 according to which at least 20% of the land is to be subject to conservation measures or renaturation.
01:23 The EU is striving for near-natural production with fewer pesticides and fertilizers.
01:29 Success in bringing about the change will mean subsidies worth billions.
01:34 Without the additional payments, many small farms would not survive.
01:40 And if you look at incomes in German agriculture, for example, you can see enormous differences in income,
01:47 and the majority of farms tend to be rather small and less profitable.
01:51 But at the same time, there are also extremely profitable farms.
01:55 These are fewer in number, but usually much larger, and they also account for a relatively high proportion of production overall.
02:05 Europe's production cuts are likely to have the greatest impact in Africa.
02:12 This is because the continent is urgently dependent on imports from the EU,
02:17 and attempts to increase self-sufficiency are only likely to help to a limited extent.
02:23 We have countries that will find self-sufficiency increasingly difficult in view of climate change
02:30 and where we can assume that domestic production will fall.
02:34 Dependence on imports will reach 80, 90 or 100% in some cases.
02:40 Fewer imports also means higher prices in the long term.
02:44 Prices are already comparatively high today,
02:47 and fewer and fewer people can afford the grain products that form the basis of the supply in many countries.
02:54 China plays a decisive role in the price of grain.
02:59 China is a huge unknown for us.
03:03 When we look at how much of the major commodities we have available worldwide, such as wheat or corn,
03:09 China usually provides more than half, but we don't always know whether they really have these amounts,
03:15 what the quality is like, or whether they will actually be available.
03:19 One thing is certain, China is becoming less and less self-sufficient.
03:28 More than any other country, it imports more agricultural products than it exports.
03:33 The import surplus amounts to more than 100 billion US dollars.
03:38 And that brings Russia into play.
03:40 The country is already the largest exporter of wheat,
03:44 and according to experts, it is one of the countries that can increase its harvests the most.
03:49 This is important in order to meet the growing demand for food.
03:53 There are various estimates and calculations that Russia's exports to China have doubled or tripled
04:03 in the last two or three years, in different areas.
04:07 Russia will play a very central role in supplying China with basic foodstuffs
04:12 or agricultural commodities such as wheat and corn.
04:16 Ukraine is also one of the countries with great growth potential to supply the world even more in the future.
04:25 The United Nations assumes that by 2050,
04:33 90% of future production growth will come from an increase in land yields
04:38 and only 10% from an expansion of agricultural land.
04:42 African countries could become totally dependent on Russia in the future,
04:50 unless the EU increases its harvests.
04:53 This involves the use of modern technologies, artificial intelligence, sensor technology, etc.,
05:00 where we can run intensive production processes
05:03 while ensuring that we're not causing lasting damage to the environment at the same time.
05:08 The European Union is investing heavily in new technologies for better harvests.
05:15 The big practical test is still pending.
05:18 At the same time, new technology could help to avoid crop losses,
05:22 as there is a massive shortage of labor in European agriculture.
05:29 We have certain sectors, such as the growing of fruits or vegetables,
05:33 or dairy production, that are relatively labor-intensive.
05:37 And in view of rising wage costs,
05:41 digitalization may be a way of maintaining competitiveness, at least in part.
05:47 Experts believe that up to 10 billion people could be fed in the future.
05:55 On the way there, the big players will gain even more market power than they already have.