UConn Given a Challenging Path Through the East Region
Transcript
00:00 [MUSIC]
00:05 So our good friend Jim Root, Donnie, who was on our Bracket Central Selection
00:09 Sunday special, had this tweet last night.
00:11 And I think it really points to just how difficult a path through the East region
00:16 is going to be.
00:17 The cumulative sum of the Ken Palm rankings of Seeds 1 through 4 by region.
00:23 East is 20.
00:25 South, 41.
00:27 Midwest, 43. The West is 42.
00:31 Why is the East so short?
00:33 UConn is the top team in Ken Palm.
00:35 Auburn is fourth.
00:37 Iowa State is fifth.
00:39 Illinois is tenth.
00:41 Four of the top ten teams in the Ken Palm efficiency metrics are all in the same region
00:47 on those top four Seed lines.
00:50 And Connecticut is trying to pull off something we have not seen now in over a decade
00:55 and a half in the men's NCAA tournament.
00:58 That's going back to back as a national title winner.
01:01 The last team to do so, that was the Florida Gators in 2006 and '07.
01:07 We'll show you what defending champs have done in the big dance in just a moment.
01:11 But here's the odds for UConn if they are going to make a move into the second weekend and beyond.
01:17 Heavily favored to get to the Sweet 16 at -650.
01:21 If UConn opens against Stetson as a 26.5 point favorite, more than likely winning that basketball game,
01:27 they would take on the winner of the 8-9 split between FAU and Northwestern.
01:32 And oh, by the way, FAU, a Final Four team from a season ago.
01:36 So -650 for the Huskies to reach the Sweet 16.
01:40 To reach the Elite Eight, only -160 because if things follow the expected outcome
01:46 and Auburn sees the second weekend as well, what a matchup we would have in the round of 16.
01:51 One UConn, four Auburn in the East Regional Semifinal out in Boston.
01:57 Exactly. And also, you know, we can equate it also, Ben, to the price point here
02:01 that we're taking a look at UConn to win the tournament.
02:03 It's a +370 price. Now it almost has that feel as, you know how you wait to see how the brackets turn out?
02:08 It's actually been opposite for UConn.
02:10 Like if you would have told me before we saw Selection Sunday,
02:13 "Hey, UConn's going to be about a 4-1 price to win," you'd say, "OK,
02:16 some people are probably going to jump on that because they technically don't care who they play."
02:20 And theoretically, that's what you're getting.
02:22 If you don't care who they play, you don't mind this region.
02:24 But if you do care who they play as a handicapper, it's a terrible region.
02:28 So for myself to say +370 on UConn to win it, if you remove the actual seedings and who they're playing,
02:35 it sort of makes sense. But now that you see everything come together and say,
02:38 "In the Sweet 16, I'm probably going to get a decent match," let's just say, you know, to win and get in, right?
02:43 And then you end up facing Auburn. And then again, you're going to have to face Iowa State.
02:47 Then you get into the Final Four, and let's just say from that bottom bracket,
02:50 Arizona or let's just say Carolina, just to give a top-two seed here.
02:54 Then you've got to get to the Final and maybe beat a Houston.
02:57 It's an unbelievable run. It doesn't match up to the price point of +370.
03:02 Again, if you say to yourself, "I think UConn can win it,"
03:05 hopefully it's a 6 or 7 or 8 to 1 price at this point. +370 in that gauntlet?
03:11 No shot for me. Even again, if I think they're the best overall team and they can win it,
03:15 that price point is not for me then.
03:17 [Music]