- 3/1/2024
Category
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TVTranscript
00:00 One stock that's grabbing our attention this morning once again is Dilip Bilkon. It's been
00:03 fairly active in trade over the last couple of weeks on back of order wins and in with
00:08 lots happening with this one. Like we did tell you the stocks up about 2.5% on back of a 2000
00:14 crore order win this morning. Let's not forget we've been calling this Dilip Bilkon 2.0. After
00:21 over four years we did get a chance to talk to the management of Dilip Bilkon where we began by
00:27 asking about the company's business outlook, the quarter gone by, order wins and more. So listen
00:32 into what Rohan had to say as I caught up with him yesterday. Today you know post during COVID
00:39 we obviously suffered a huge bunch of losses because our business model was around owning
00:46 our own assets, having our own people and building all the projects that we were doing on our own.
00:52 During COVID obviously once we had people sitting idly on our sites but we were still paying them
00:59 their salaries, our equipment was sitting idle, we were still paying the EMI's. So all of them
01:03 caused huge losses to the company. Post which we decided that we need to rethink our business
01:09 model and we need to kind of focus on being more asset light at the standalone level. So I think
01:14 that's where the whole thought process started. So one of the things was we wanted to be asset
01:18 light. Earlier we used to invest around 500 to 700 crores of money every year in just buying
01:25 new equipment and we have a nice big asset bank because of which we are able to function across
01:32 20 different states in India. So today we're doing work in almost eight, nine different sectors,
01:39 whether it's roads, bridges, tunnels, water supply, dam, irrigation projects, metro projects,
01:46 airport projects or mining. And all of these sectors we do it with our own equipment and our
01:50 own people. But when we were kind of thinking about we need to now consolidate our gains,
01:56 we need to build stronger from where we have, we took a hit on Arjun and now we need to kind of
02:01 sort of take the next couple of years where we're focusing on our cash flows, reducing our debt.
02:08 So that was the strategy. So number one we stopped investing in new equipment or almost
02:13 only like replacement capes of 50, 100 crores every year. Second thing that we did was we wanted
02:18 to focus on building both short term cash flows along with that long term cash flow. For the long
02:25 term cash flows, we identified our asset businesses. One was the road asset business, which
02:31 we had where we were building these assets and selling them to fund. And the second was the coal
02:38 asset business that we had. So we decided that we need to keep some of these in-house and not
02:43 like monetize them as soon as they're completed. So in that regard, we are setting up our own
02:48 inuit for the road business along with an investor, Alpha Investments. So overall,
02:56 that was the kind of strategy that focused on reducing debt, don't do new investments,
03:01 and focus on finding a mix of long term cash flows and short term cash flows.
03:07 So you're obviously making it much sharper and operationally better. Let's start, we'll talk
03:12 about the inuit in a minute, but let's start monetizing those assets and creating the long
03:16 term cash flow. But let's talk about guidance. You've managed to do about what, 70% top line
03:21 growth, margins are looking also fairly healthy. If we have to look ahead in the next couple of
03:26 quarters out, what is the sort of revenue guidance could you share with us? And in terms of margins
03:32 as well, this 12 to 12 and a half, 13% is possible, or is there an upside risk on both revenue and
03:38 margins? So, in our sector, it would be very unwise to give quarterly guidance, because when you're
03:46 doing these large infrastructure projects, whenever we give our guidance, we usually give
03:50 our guidance in terms of years. So this year we had guided at the start of this financial year,
03:55 we said that we will grow about 5 to 7%, and that's where we are kind of going to be at.
04:01 So about 10 and a half thousand crores in terms of top line is what we are targeting.
04:06 Even the margins you rightfully said would be around that 12, 13% kind of range that we had
04:13 also indicated at the start of the year. The biggest thing that we had indicated at the start
04:18 of the year was that we would reduce our debt from the net debt levels of about 2300 crores or so,
04:27 we'll reduce it by 800 to 1000 crores. But in the first nine months, we've already reduced about
04:34 500 crores. And we're very confident that we will reduce it by the numbers that we had indicated.
04:40 So by the end of the year, we would have a net debt of 13 to 1500 crores, that would translate
04:45 to a debt inbid of one is to one time, then a debt equity of 0.25 times. Now going forward,
04:52 the year after, if I were to give you a rough estimate, we have only said we will grow around
04:58 that same 5-7%. We are not chasing growth, because growth without business model came with a lot of
05:03 capital investments. And because we are now focusing on cash flow, sort of cash flows,
05:09 reducing that we are not looking at some massive growth. In fact, the growth will come from the
05:14 bottom line. Now, again, next year, I could say that we are targeting about other 800 crores of
05:21 debt reduction. So which will bring down our debt reduction to I mean, the year like when we look at
05:28 FY26, we should be around like when we end FY25 rather, we will be somewhere in the range of 500
05:37 to 700 crores of net debt at an 11,000 crores or so of top line with a 12-13% kind of EBITDA that
05:47 we've indicated. So that's that I should say would be the broad numbers. You know, Rohan, I'm very
05:53 intrigued to ask you because this is a tough business and to be or aim to be debt free is
05:59 the goal, the objective itself is noteworthy. You've successfully reduced your debt significantly
06:06 like you indicated. Give me a sense of what are you undertaking to improve your debt levels? Are
06:12 you I don't know, you're addressing your debtors quicker, cash flows improved? Are you doing an
06:17 equity infusion? How have you managed to reduce debt? And how do you plan to do that and come down
06:22 to being a net zero, net debt zero company? So a bunch of things that we've done, you know,
06:30 a like I said, reducing investments that we are making. So that frees up a bunch of cash not
06:35 making investment in equipment and the equity investments that we have to make for our PPP
06:40 projects are now kind of tied up with our deal with Alpha. So we are getting a whole bunch of
06:46 capital from them as well for our for buying that 26% stake in the inward. And also, you know,
06:54 they're also investing in the company's warrants that we should plan. So in total, we've done a
07:01 deal of about less than 2000 crores with them. And that capital will keep coming over this year and
07:09 the next couple of years. So that will be an additional kind of capital that will come and help
07:15 us in reducing our debt. Then the internal cash flows are also pretty strong. We, you know, all
07:20 the different businesses are not doing well. In the last two, three years, COVID, like I mentioned,
07:24 you know, a we had cost escalation, because of you know, all those idle costs. And then there
07:29 was also material costs, which went through the roof. So all those things that cost, you know,
07:35 eventually for us, for our profitability to kind of be low. Now, we're not seeing any kind of
07:42 situation like that. The economic outlook for India while it seems pretty good, globally,
07:50 the economic outlook is not good. So I don't think there should be a lot of inflation in terms of
07:54 material pricing as well. So taking some comfort out of that also, because we've diversified our
08:00 business fairly from from different different sectors. Earlier, we used to be almost 80 90%
08:05 in the business today, our business constitutes only less than 40% of our total revenue. So I
08:12 think all the different different sectors where we have kind of diverse deployed our assets,
08:17 the cash flows coming from them, and then the cash flows coming from outside
08:21 are all in total helping us achieve this goal. Right. So for now, if I've got this right,
08:28 Alfa Alternatives is invested in 18 road assets. Is that correct, Rohan?
08:32 They will eventually invest in 18 road assets. This year, we will put eight assets into the
08:38 InVID. These are the assets that are completed. And over the course of the next two years,
08:43 we're building other 10 road assets. The total AUM of these 18 assets,
08:48 direct and equity total put together would be somewhere in the range of 13 to 15,000 crores,
08:54 the eventual valuation. So that would be the initial InVID size that both of us are going.
08:59 So about 6000 crores of equity or so equity value, where we will be owning 76%. Now,
09:09 so two years down the line, when all of this is complete, when we have all the assets put in,
09:13 it would give a free cash of 500 crores plus to debill every year. So that would sort of be a big
09:21 support to debill besides its already EPC business. Right. So yeah, so Rohan, you're clearly not
09:27 buying any more equipment, like you said, and you're operationally being able to manage this
09:31 efficiently right now. With that free cash flow that you indicated to us over the next one to two
09:36 years, would that money be used for expansion? You also talked about going into different
09:42 geographies, reducing concentration risk. And we've heard about the project wins in states like
09:46 Goa as well. Do you want to talk to us about that a little bit more? And also, what will be the end
09:51 use of this free cash flow? So firstly, in the next two years, most of the free cash flow is
09:58 going to just reduce the debt, whatever we're just making it a completely debt free company
10:04 at the standalone level. We will continue to take bets and debt on the consolidated basis,
10:10 obviously, for all the asset business, the debt comes on the consolidated basis,
10:14 and on the SPV specific SPV level, so we are comfortable doing that. So we'll continue doing
10:20 besides that. We are already in 20 states and the sector that I mentioned earlier, we are looking at
10:28 opportunities in all those sectors. So wherever we find there'll be an opportunity where it'd be a
10:33 good place to deploy capital, we would definitely do that. I think so. But the next two years,
10:37 most of the capital would kind of go to reduce that besides the equity commitments that we
10:42 already kind of have. And what is your order pipeline looking like right now?
10:49 Rohan, I mean, the biggest story in India right now, elections around the corner is
10:53 infrastructure and the proxy to play the India infrastructure story is through companies like
10:58 yourself. You want to give me a sense of, you did say that revenue growth is what we are aiming is
11:02 in that 7 to 8 percent range, but conversations that are currently underway, order wins,
11:08 how is that piece looking? So in an election year, always the ordering is slow. If you look at
11:15 historically speaking, all the election years we've seen, you know, a gross dip in ordering,
11:24 but post-election, it picks up pretty healthy. If I talk about NHI alone has floated about one and a
11:31 half lakh crores worth of orders that we are obviously looking at. But most of these would
11:39 come out post-elections. We'll be pretty prepared for those biddings as well. Besides the road
11:45 business, there is water, mining, metro, and like I said, all the other different, different things
11:51 that we kind of doing. So all those areas should give a good impetus. And as you also mentioned
11:59 that the government is very focused on building infrastructure. So I think they want to make sure
12:06 that, you know, building long term asset, which is very, very important for a growing country like
12:11 ours, which has ambitions of the $5 trillion economy. So I think we're very confident that
12:18 we will see a lot of orders coming in the next financial year as well. And currently,
12:25 already we have visibility for the next two years, 21,000 crores of orders already in hand.
12:30 And with our current run rate, two years of visibility is pretty much sorted.
12:34 Now very lastly, Rohan, we've talked about Dilip Bilkon 2.0, and you look at those valuations,
12:40 clearly you're an investor favorite in this infrastructure space when compared to your peers.
12:46 Next leg of growth, right? And I want to understand that. Of course, you're fixing
12:49 the house, you've fixed the house significantly already. Everything's going as planned.
12:54 The two things that I'd lastly want to know is what keeps you awake at night when you think
12:59 about Dilip Bilkon's growth, and where will the next leg of growth come from? You know,
13:03 you've got various verticals, various geographies, but anything else that we don't know and we should
13:08 know? So this is a very tough sector to be in, and all the different verticals that we've also
13:14 gone, it's not a very easy job to build infrastructure in India because it's highly
13:18 regulated, you have to coordinate with a lot of government agencies. So, you know, the asset that
13:25 people get to enjoy, they don't realize the pain and the sweat, the blood that goes behind it.
13:29 It is, you know, the biggest challenge that we also face when we're building any kind of
13:34 infrastructure is actually managing stakeholders, you know, getting the government to do everything
13:39 on time. Hopefully, you know, and over the years that has kept on improving, the government
13:44 agencies have tried to be more coordinated. I can only hope and wish that the central government
13:51 also takes notice of that and focuses on better coordination amongst all the different agencies
13:57 so that these infrastructure projects, which usually get delayed a lot. And if you look at
14:03 the last 20-30 years of infrastructure project building in India, probably 75% of them have gone
14:10 over the stipulated time that the government initially envisaged. And eventually it led to
14:15 cost escalation. So that's, you know, making sure that all the different parts are fitting beautifully,
14:22 that probably is the biggest concern always. Nothing that is specifically keeping me up now,
14:29 I think COVID was probably that time. But going forward, I think there are so many different
14:33 levels of growth. I'm not particularly fussed about it. And also, I'm excited about this journey
14:40 that we have embarked upon, where we are looking at building different asset classes, and also
14:45 building partnerships with, you know, financial partners such as Alpha. So those are the things
14:51 that I'm currently very excited about. And I think there is, you know, all this transformative
14:57 journey that we have undertaken should showcase a very different Dilip Pilpaon in the next two years.
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