Betting on Super Bowl LVIII: Beware of the Sucker Prop Bets

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00:00 Let's be real about this. There aren't going to be a lot of positive expectation

00:08 wagers out there this week. Alright, there aren't. And yet, the Super Bowl is

00:12 Christmas for sports bettors. Plain and simple. It's a holiday for all of us. So

00:17 how do you resolve that? For me, it's just you keep your unit sizes small, man.

00:20 You know, it's a this is a day to make as many bets as you want. If you're betting

00:24 pizza money, you get away. I remember one of the Super Bowls and I've been here

00:27 guys have been doing this a long time as well. And I used to be that guy. Super

00:32 Bowl's the last game of the year. I need to win big on the way out. I end up

00:37 putting literally 20,000, 15,000, 22,000. When you don't win, you're spending the

00:43 next six months crying about it after the fact. And the worst is you're not

00:47 even a fan of these teams in these games. You end up betting I lost money on Cam

00:51 Newton and the Carolina Panthers than Denver Broncos, right? So I'm not even a

00:56 fan. As you get older, you realize there is no lock, right? In these championship

01:01 games and especially in a game like this, in which the game is basically a

01:05 pick-em. But with that being stated, I diversify my portfolio. I have a

01:11 lot of different props, you know, traditional props that I play in a

01:15 couple of different ways that I'm going to attack this. Let me ask you guys about

01:18 this one. I'll ask you about this one, Mike. Will there be an octopus?

01:23 What does this mean? Somebody gonna throw an octopus? What's the Detroit Red Wing game?

01:27 So an octopus, guys, if you see it you're wondering what the hell is an octopus?

01:30 An octopus is if a player scores the touchdown and then the two-point

01:35 covered after. Not later in the game, but he gets all eight points in a row.

01:40 It had never happened in a Super Bowl before until last year.

01:45 It's plus 1,300 this year. What do you think? Is it worth a sprinkle just because

01:49 we talked about it? We're gonna hate ourselves if we don't take it? I'll bet

01:52 you that's the most profitable bet that the books take every year. People love

01:56 that bet because it's fun, it sounds fun, and to your point, it hadn't happened and

02:00 it took the team that is the most efficient in goal line offense.

02:06 Yeah, but I remember there was never safeties in a Super Bowl. Then like three years in a row

02:09 there were safeties. Sure, sure, sure. And I remember what Jimmy Vaccaro said

02:13 after the third year of the safety. He's like, "We're gonna start booking the yes/no

02:17 safety the day after the Super Bowl for next year. I'll take all the yes back."

02:20 And of course it didn't hit the next year and everything was fine.

02:24 What do you think about this Octopus at plus 1,300? Of course you bet the no.

02:28 Come on, you bet the no on the... Look, all of the "bet a little to win a lot"

02:35 props, they're designed to attract recreational players. You want to

02:43 throw your money around on something like "bet a little to win a lot" props, knock

02:46 yourself out. They're all negative expectations.

02:49 There's no OT, no safety. The wise guys are coming in betting the no's on all

02:54 this stuff. And they're betting it heavy. They're betting it for millions of dollars.

02:58 And willing to live with the consequences, believing the numbers are on their side.

03:02 Sure, I wish they are. Again, the OT finally hit.

03:05 Finally hit. They all took a bath that day. And how many years has it been since?

03:09 And they keep betting it still every year. And they made all their money back and more already.

03:13 Yeah, you know.

03:16 (upbeat music)

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