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Betting on Super Bowl LVIII: Beware of the Sucker Prop Bets
SportsGrid
Follow
2/6/2024
Category
🥇
Sports
Transcript
Display full video transcript
00:00
Let's be real about this. There aren't going to be a lot of positive expectation
00:08
wagers out there this week. Alright, there aren't. And yet, the Super Bowl is
00:12
Christmas for sports bettors. Plain and simple. It's a holiday for all of us. So
00:17
how do you resolve that? For me, it's just you keep your unit sizes small, man.
00:20
You know, it's a this is a day to make as many bets as you want. If you're betting
00:24
pizza money, you get away. I remember one of the Super Bowls and I've been here
00:27
guys have been doing this a long time as well. And I used to be that guy. Super
00:32
Bowl's the last game of the year. I need to win big on the way out. I end up
00:37
putting literally 20,000, 15,000, 22,000. When you don't win, you're spending the
00:43
next six months crying about it after the fact. And the worst is you're not
00:47
even a fan of these teams in these games. You end up betting I lost money on Cam
00:51
Newton and the Carolina Panthers than Denver Broncos, right? So I'm not even a
00:56
fan. As you get older, you realize there is no lock, right? In these championship
01:01
games and especially in a game like this, in which the game is basically a
01:05
pick-em. But with that being stated, I diversify my portfolio. I have a
01:11
lot of different props, you know, traditional props that I play in a
01:15
couple of different ways that I'm going to attack this. Let me ask you guys about
01:18
this one. I'll ask you about this one, Mike. Will there be an octopus?
01:23
What does this mean? Somebody gonna throw an octopus? What's the Detroit Red Wing game?
01:27
So an octopus, guys, if you see it you're wondering what the hell is an octopus?
01:30
An octopus is if a player scores the touchdown and then the two-point
01:35
covered after. Not later in the game, but he gets all eight points in a row.
01:40
It had never happened in a Super Bowl before until last year.
01:45
It's plus 1,300 this year. What do you think? Is it worth a sprinkle just because
01:49
we talked about it? We're gonna hate ourselves if we don't take it? I'll bet
01:52
you that's the most profitable bet that the books take every year. People love
01:56
that bet because it's fun, it sounds fun, and to your point, it hadn't happened and
02:00
it took the team that is the most efficient in goal line offense.
02:06
Yeah, but I remember there was never safeties in a Super Bowl. Then like three years in a row
02:09
there were safeties. Sure, sure, sure. And I remember what Jimmy Vaccaro said
02:13
after the third year of the safety. He's like, "We're gonna start booking the yes/no
02:17
safety the day after the Super Bowl for next year. I'll take all the yes back."
02:20
And of course it didn't hit the next year and everything was fine.
02:24
What do you think about this Octopus at plus 1,300? Of course you bet the no.
02:28
Come on, you bet the no on the... Look, all of the "bet a little to win a lot"
02:35
props, they're designed to attract recreational players. You want to
02:43
throw your money around on something like "bet a little to win a lot" props, knock
02:46
yourself out. They're all negative expectations.
02:49
There's no OT, no safety. The wise guys are coming in betting the no's on all
02:54
this stuff. And they're betting it heavy. They're betting it for millions of dollars.
02:58
And willing to live with the consequences, believing the numbers are on their side.
03:02
Sure, I wish they are. Again, the OT finally hit.
03:05
Finally hit. They all took a bath that day. And how many years has it been since?
03:09
And they keep betting it still every year. And they made all their money back and more already.
03:13
Yeah, you know.
03:16
(upbeat music)
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