ตลาดส่งออกข้าวไทยปี 67 เผชิญหลายปัจจัยรุมเร้า

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00:00 Let's talk about the delivery to Thailand.

00:02 According to the information from the Foreign Trade Organization,

00:05 this year, compared to the previous year,

00:08 the number of deliveries has slowed down.

00:10 There are many factors that affect the delivery.

00:14 But we will also listen to the perspective of the individual.

00:16 How will they see it?

00:18 Today, we are talking to the President of the Kittimasak Society,

00:21 the Thai delivery man, Mr. Chuket Okpatwong.

00:24 Hello, Mr. Chuket.

00:25 Hello, Mr. Chuket.

00:26 Hello, Mr. Achavin. I'm from the Foreign Trade Organization.

00:30 What are your thoughts on the Thai delivery this year?

00:34 I've talked to the Ministry of Finance

00:40 and we have set a target this year

00:44 to decrease from last year.

00:47 Last year, we delivered 8.76 million tons,

00:52 almost 8.8 million tons.

00:53 But this year, we will set a target of 7.5 million tons.

01:00 That is to reduce by 15% from the delivery rate

01:06 compared to last year.

01:08 Why is the target of the delivery

01:11 to reduce by 7.5 million tons?

01:15 We see that this year,

01:18 the delivery market has slowed down.

01:23 Because of the big buyers,

01:27 such as Indonesia and the Philippines,

01:29 who delivered a lot last year.

01:34 For example, the Philippines delivered

01:37 almost 4 million tons last year,

01:40 around 3.8 million tons.

01:42 Indonesia delivered around 4 million tons.

01:46 This year, I think the two countries

01:50 should be less likely to deliver.

01:54 Last year, there was the El Nino incident

01:56 and there was an election in Indonesia.

02:03 There was an election last year.

02:06 They probably don't want the delivery price to rise

02:11 and create a problem for the people.

02:15 So they delivered a lot of food

02:19 to guarantee that the price inside will not rise.

02:24 And there is also the issue of air pollution.

02:28 So we see that last year, they delivered a lot.

02:32 And this year, their delivery should be less.

02:37 We think that Indonesia this year,

02:41 from 4 million tons last year,

02:43 will only have around 2 million.

02:44 Yes, it has increased by a lot.

02:47 Yes, so we have adjusted our numbers

02:53 to match the world's sales this year.

03:00 It should be less.

03:02 This is one of the reasons.

03:04 The second reason is that

03:08 we think that India,

03:11 which is known for banning the delivery of rice,

03:15 last year,

03:18 and India itself,

03:20 will have an election this year as well.

03:23 After the election,

03:27 we think that India will change

03:30 in the delivery policy.

03:33 They will have the same delivery.

03:38 Yes.

03:38 In the past,

03:40 they were worried about the price of rice in the country

03:44 which has risen.

03:45 They will have a higher price of rice.

03:49 But I think that after the election,

03:54 India will return to the same delivery policy.

03:57 Yes.

03:58 So if India starts to deliver,

04:02 we know that India is the number one country

04:05 in the world right now.

04:08 They have delivered around 20 million tons this year.

04:13 Even last year,

04:15 when India banned the delivery of rice,

04:18 they still delivered around 17.5 million tons.

04:22 Yes.

04:23 So if India starts to deliver again this year,

04:30 I think that our market share

04:35 will increase in another part of the country.

04:39 So the important factors that we are looking at today

04:43 are the two main factors.

04:46 The fact that the number of buyers has decreased,

04:49 and India might be able to return to the same delivery policy

04:52 in the next six months.

04:54 That's why we set a target

04:57 for this year's delivery

04:59 to decrease from last year.

05:00 That's an important reason.

05:02 Yes.

05:02 And if we look at the production,

05:05 the El Nino project will have an impact

05:07 on the production of Thai rice this year.

05:10 We saw that the Ministry of Agriculture

05:14 said that the number of rice will decrease a little

05:18 because of the rice fertilizers.

05:20 Yes.

05:21 The water in the rice fields

05:24 might not be enough.

05:25 Yes.

05:26 There might not be enough water

05:28 for the rice to grow.

05:31 So the amount of rice will decrease.

05:34 But it doesn't seem like it's decreasing much.

05:39 From 32 million,

05:40 there might be around 31 million left.

05:45 That's not a significant amount

05:48 for the production of rice in Thailand.

05:53 Yes.

05:53 And how is the production of rice in Thailand right now?

05:58 In other countries?

06:00 In Thailand.

06:01 Well, actually,

06:05 I think that the amount of rice

06:09 in this year's delivery

06:13 to the end of the year

06:16 shouldn't decrease.

06:17 Yes.

06:18 Because the price of rice

06:21 is quite good.

06:24 Yes.

06:25 One grain costs around 12,000 baht.

06:28 I believe that farmers should grow more rice.

06:33 Even if there's less water,

06:37 they can use other methods,

06:39 such as digging up the rice fields.

06:43 Because the price is good for the rice to grow.

06:47 So, if it wasn't for the flood,

06:53 we wouldn't be able to grow rice now.

06:58 If it was a normal rain season,

07:04 I believe that our production

07:08 would be in a good range this year.

07:10 Yes.

07:10 There shouldn't be any problems.

07:12 Mr. Chuket, let's talk about the price.

07:15 This year, the price of Thai rice in the global market

07:17 is higher.

07:18 But as we know,

07:20 the price of Thai rice is still quite high.

07:22 How is the situation now compared to the previous year?

07:26 There's a clear example.

07:29 On Monday,

07:31 there was a bid

07:34 for 500,000 tons of rice in Indonesia.

07:37 Thai rice was not accepted,

07:39 not even a single ton.

07:41 It was a bid from a government agency

07:46 called Bulog.

07:47 It was a G2P bid.

07:49 It was a bid from the private sector

07:54 and the international community.

07:59 Vietnam received 400,000 tons of rice.

08:04 The rest was from North Korea.

08:06 The price is 30,000 THB lower than Thailand.

08:12 This shows that

08:15 the price is quite high.

08:20 Vietnam is in the middle of a new production season.

08:26 The price is decreasing rapidly.

08:28 Last year,

08:30 the price of rice in Vietnam was higher than that of Thailand.

08:33 Yes.

08:34 But now,

08:36 the price is 30,000 THB lower than Thailand.

08:38 This makes it harder

08:43 to compete with the global market.

08:47 This is a clear example

08:51 that the price is still quite high.

08:56 The price of rice in the competition is decreasing,

08:58 which makes it harder to sell.

09:00 But at the beginning of this year,

09:04 I think our export is still doing well.

09:07 Yes.

09:08 Since the order was still pending

09:11 last year,

09:13 I think we exported

09:15 around 800,000 tons

09:17 of rice

09:19 in the month of February and February.

09:23 But what I'm worried about is

09:25 what will happen

09:28 in the next 2nd and 3rd quarters.

09:30 If our price is still high

09:33 and our competitors

09:36 lower the price

09:39 than us,

09:41 it may cause problems

09:44 in our export.

09:46 If we export 600,000-500,000 tons

09:50 in a month, it may be possible.

09:52 Yes.

09:52 So what should we do

09:54 to make Thai rice

09:56 more competitive with competitors?

09:57 Because it's a topic

09:58 that we've been talking about for a long time.

10:02 We have to look at the long term.

10:05 Yes.

10:05 Because in the short term,

10:07 it's hard to do anything.

10:08 In the long term,

10:11 we need to have

10:13 new rice

10:15 that can produce high yields.

10:17 Yes.

10:18 For example,

10:21 in Thailand,

10:23 the rice can be grown

10:27 in a field

10:29 that produces around 900 kg.

10:31 In India,

10:32 it's around 800 kg per field.

10:34 Yes.

10:35 While in Thailand,

10:37 our rice

10:39 is around 450 kg.

10:44 Yes.

10:45 We have to increase the price

10:47 to be equal

10:49 or above

10:52 the competitors' price

10:55 to reduce the cost.

10:57 Yes.

10:58 So we can compete

11:02 in the global market in the future.

11:04 Yes.

11:05 That's what we expect to happen.

11:09 Yes.

11:10 In addition to rice cultivation,

11:12 what other projects

11:13 should be implemented

11:15 to improve the rice production?

11:17 Actually,

11:19 I think there are many factors

11:21 that can reduce

11:23 the production cost.

11:25 Yes.

11:26 Whether it's rice cultivation,

11:29 which is a major issue.

11:31 Yes.

11:31 It's a big issue.

11:33 We need rice

11:35 that produces high yields

11:37 and short-term storage.

11:40 For example,

11:42 in Vietnam, we can store rice for 90 days.

11:44 Yes.

11:44 But in Thailand, it takes 120 days.

11:47 Yes.

11:47 Secondly, we need to invest

11:50 in infrastructure

11:54 especially in areas

11:56 that need

11:59 rainwater.

12:01 For example, in the Northeastern region,

12:03 there should be more

12:05 water storage.

12:08 Yes.

12:08 Because the Northeastern region

12:11 depends on rainwater.

12:14 Yes.

12:15 90% of the time,

12:17 when it rains,

12:19 it's bad,

12:19 and there's a problem.

12:21 So in this area,

12:23 we should invest

12:26 in water storage

12:29 so that there's more water

12:32 and it's available in all areas

12:35 where we can store water

12:38 and we don't have to worry

12:41 about rainwater.

12:44 That's another part.

12:46 Yes.

12:46 I think that

12:48 in terms of the carbon footprint,

12:50 in terms of agriculture,

12:51 like the crop,

12:54 I think the government

12:56 should do something

12:59 to reduce the cost

13:01 of agriculture

13:05 so that it's cheaper.

13:07 It's a way to reduce costs.

13:09 There are many factors.

13:11 Yes.

13:12 Thank you, Mr. Chuket.

13:15 Thank you.

13:16 Thank you.

13:17 Goodbye.

13:18 Goodbye.

13:19 I must admit that this is

13:20 a very important issue.

13:21 If we leave it like this,

13:23 the competitors will

13:25 leave us behind.

13:26 They're already teasing us.

13:27 They're the big shots

13:29 of the state

13:30 who have to solve this problem.

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