- 1/30/2024
- Is more than 2% of the nation's GDP unrealistic for the defence budget?
- How will the government accelerate defence exports?
Samina Nalwala speaks to companies working in the defence sector on 'Budget 2024: The Take-Off'. #NDTVProfitLive
Guest List:
Ashok Atluri, CMD, Zen Technlogies
Arun Ramchandani,Executive VP & Head- Defence, Larsen & Toubro
Amit Mahajan, Director, Paras Defense
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- How will the government accelerate defence exports?
Samina Nalwala speaks to companies working in the defence sector on 'Budget 2024: The Take-Off'. #NDTVProfitLive
Guest List:
Ashok Atluri, CMD, Zen Technlogies
Arun Ramchandani,Executive VP & Head- Defence, Larsen & Toubro
Amit Mahajan, Director, Paras Defense
_______________________________________________________
For more videos subscribe to our channel: https://www.youtube.com/@NDTVProfitIndia
Visit NDTV Profit for more news: https://www.ndtvprofit.com/
Don't enter the stock market unaware. Read all Research Reports here: https://www.ndtvprofit.com/research-reports
Follow NDTV Profit here
Twitter: https://twitter.com/NDTVProfitIndia , https://twitter.com/NDTVProfit
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/ndtvprofit
Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/ndtvprofit/
#ndtvprofit #stockmarket #news #ndtv #business #finance #mutualfunds #sharemarket
Share Market News | NDTV Profit LIVE | NDTV Profit LIVE News | Business News LIVE | Finance News | Mutual Funds | Stocks To Buy | Stock Market LIVE News | Stock Market Latest Updates | Sensex Nifty LIVE | Nifty Sensex LIVE
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TVTranscript
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04:24 - In a remarkable shift,
04:32 the Indian government's strategic transition
04:34 from being a net importer to a net exporter
04:36 has propelled the country's defense sector to new heights.
04:40 The Ministry of Defense marked a historic year in 2023,
04:43 witnessing a surge in defense exports,
04:45 reaching an unprecedented 16,000 crores
04:48 in the financial year,
04:49 almost 3000 crores more than the preceding year,
04:52 and defense production also scaled to new heights.
04:56 All eyes will be on the budget to get some more dope
05:00 on what the industry and the sector expects.
05:03 We have with us three very, very interesting
05:06 and impressive individuals joining us on the show.
05:09 Ashok Atluri, CMD of Zen Technologies,
05:12 Arun Ramchandani, Executive VP and Head Defense,
05:15 and Amit Mahajan, Director of Paris Defense.
05:17 Thank you, gentlemen.
05:19 You're all three in a way are industry representatives
05:23 and also represent defense and know the sector
05:26 better than any of us do.
05:28 My first question, Ashok, I'll start with you.
05:30 With heightened tension in the Middle East
05:33 and on the heels of the Russia-Ukraine war last year,
05:36 will the current geopolitical setup
05:38 have any weightage or impact
05:40 on the nation's budget for defense
05:42 as we head into budget 2024?
05:45 So I think it's going to seriously impact.
05:50 I mean to say that, you know,
05:53 two things that came out very well
05:55 out of this whole, you know, fiasco in Ukraine
05:59 or in Middle East, the most impenetrable country
06:02 where ragtag soldiers on hand gliders
06:04 could take over the country for six hours.
06:07 The thing would be, you know, the lack of preparedness.
06:10 And the first is that they were not prepared well.
06:13 They did not work out all the scenarios
06:15 and they almost, you know, Iron Dome, et cetera,
06:17 went for a six hour.
06:19 So the preparedness is one thing that will come out.
06:21 Combat readiness will come out very well
06:23 as a high thing in this budget.
06:25 And the second is a complete lack of, you know,
06:29 defense against drones.
06:31 The solid defense against drones is another thing
06:34 that will really come up in this budget.
06:36 So these two things are the, you know,
06:39 are major factors that are going to determine
06:41 the next course of action for many countries,
06:43 combat readiness and, you know,
06:45 protection against the emerging drone threats.
06:47 So yes, to your question,
06:49 these things will absolutely,
06:51 the war will absolutely impact the budget
06:53 and there will be some focus areas, especially,
06:56 and we have seen in Ukraine,
06:57 they have the world's most advanced equipment gifted,
07:00 but they don't know how to operate.
07:02 If so, that could have been easily ameliorated
07:05 by using simulators and other training equipment,
07:07 but they could not, and they are not,
07:10 you know, they're in a pretty bad position.
07:12 Over to you, Samina.
07:14 - Amit, what do you think?
07:15 Do you think the capital outlay momentum
07:18 will continue this year as well?
07:20 And what sort of expectations do you have
07:23 in terms of an increase in those budgets?
07:26 - So taking over the first question as well,
07:30 if you see that whatever has been happening
07:32 across the geopolitical scenes across the world,
07:36 what we see is there is more impetus
07:39 we need to put on (indistinct)
07:42 because we cannot, on the technological front,
07:44 we cannot depend on anybody else but our own selves.
07:48 Our preparedness, like rightly said by (indistinct)
07:50 we need to be self-reliant
07:52 when it comes to our military preparedness.
07:54 And I think capital outlay increase is inevitable
07:58 because this is the only way we can generate
08:01 a lot of momentum in domestic production
08:04 and be ourselves self-ready for an eventuality like this.
08:08 - So preparedness, I think that's the key takeaway
08:11 I'm taking from both of you, Mr. Thuri and Mr. Majin.
08:15 So Ramchandani, what are your thoughts on this?
08:17 I mean, there's so much happening in the background.
08:19 Last year, of course, it was Russia-Ukraine.
08:21 This year, there's the Middle East.
08:23 And this is only gonna worsen,
08:25 of course, the Red Sea, we can't forget.
08:27 It's only gonna get worse, if not tougher, as we go along.
08:31 Unfortunately, keeping that as a backdrop,
08:34 do you think the onus, the impetus on defense
08:37 as part of the government's budget is only gonna increase?
08:40 - So the government's thrust on defense is very clear.
08:47 And over the years, we've seen growth in the budget.
08:51 Of course, if you compare with the defense budget
08:57 as a percentage of GDP, we are hovering around 1.8
09:02 to 2% of the GDP.
09:06 And probably a country like India would argue
09:11 that that is all that we can afford.
09:13 Year on year, we've been seeing growth of the budget
09:19 to the tune of about 10%.
09:21 I heard the defense secretary a few days back
09:25 talking about a potential growth in defense budget
09:27 of about 7.5%.
09:30 And really, from the industry perspective,
09:33 it's the capital budget which is relevant
09:36 and the ratio of the capital budget
09:39 to the overall defense spend.
09:41 My sense is that in the last few years,
09:46 we've seen a trend of about 10% year on year increase
09:50 on the capital budget.
09:52 And I suspect that will continue.
09:56 Notwithstanding the external environment,
10:00 we have to also look at how things are internally.
10:04 And my guess is that given the impetus
10:07 on the various programs and acquisitions
10:11 and the enlargements that all the three services
10:16 have given for themselves,
10:20 I would expect that to form about a 10% increase
10:25 on capital outlay with respect to the last year
10:29 is something that we can expect.
10:32 I'm not sure if the current geopolitical pressures
10:36 will drive it beyond that.
10:39 And I'm also not sure that being an election year
10:42 and given our internal constraints,
10:45 whether we may push that down slightly
10:49 by a couple of percentage points,
10:51 but on trend capital growth 10% year on year,
10:55 you know, about 2% of GDP, 1.8 to 2% of GDP,
11:00 it seems to be the norm which we follow
11:04 and I would expect that to continue.
11:07 - Thank you.
11:08 Thank you, Mr. Ramchandran for quantifying that.
11:10 Mr. Atluri, you wanna help me quantify that?
11:11 Do you think getting closer to 3% is likely in this budget
11:14 or that's been very, very ambitious at this stage?
11:18 - I think more than that, Samina,
11:21 there should be some areas of focus,
11:23 especially given the fact
11:24 that we are supposed to be defensive.
11:26 For example, the anti-drone systems,
11:29 we have a PLI scheme for drones,
11:32 but anti-drones are not included
11:33 and drones also 120 core PLI budget.
11:37 Can they increase it to 1000 cores
11:38 and include anti-drone systems also?
11:41 Again, IDDM kind of anti-drones only.
11:44 So second is increasing the budget for IDDM category items.
11:48 So that will directly impact companies like Paras,
11:51 Ren and all that, which are doing IDDM work, L&T,
11:53 all of us are doing this work
11:55 in indigenously designing and developing.
11:58 The budget increase for them.
11:59 So overall, if these things are taken care of
12:02 and the impetus to the exports that is being given,
12:05 they should allocate some kind of a large amount of funds
12:08 so that Indian global champions
12:09 in certain product categories can be pushed by the government
12:13 and we can go along.
12:14 Even the difference attaches to be given some KPIs
12:17 to promote the products.
12:18 And for example, one of the things
12:20 that is being talked about is combat training centers,
12:24 which are becoming so important
12:25 for post this sudden increases in war.
12:29 They become so important.
12:30 Can government tie up with other people
12:31 and increase the export income for the Indian industry?
12:35 So I would say at a micro level,
12:37 even these small, small things are allocated well.
12:40 And even if the budget is increased not to 3%,
12:45 but maybe even less,
12:46 then still we may call it a great budget.
12:49 - Right, that was actually summing it up really well
12:52 from Mr. Thuri.
12:53 And I'll come to you, Mr. Mahajan, on that one.
12:55 One thing that the government,
12:57 and of course, Mr. Thuri has also highlighted very clearly,
13:00 is saying the IDDM category that needs to be focused on.
13:04 Now that category, that list has been coming out
13:07 for the last three to four, what, four to five years.
13:09 Can we expect more of the items being added to that list?
13:14 And what are those other items or products
13:16 that should be making their way to that list?
13:18 - So the good part is the,
13:21 if you see the positive indigenization list,
13:23 as we call it as PIL,
13:25 and there are five lists that we have seen so far,
13:28 what we can see across these five lists
13:30 is an extremely aggressive
13:33 and extremely hopeful government.
13:35 They are so being faithful with the Indian industry
13:39 that they have included strong components
13:41 to complete platforms.
13:42 So certain platforms which are not even currently
13:46 being indigenized or developed in India,
13:48 they are hopeful and they are giving those incentives
13:51 to the Indian industry saying that,
13:53 why don't you try and attempt these technologies as well?
13:57 So when we are looking at these five lists by themselves,
14:01 they have generated huge amount of domestic opportunity.
14:04 Said that, there are certain technologies
14:07 which are like say anti-drone technologies
14:10 or drone technologies,
14:12 though the manufacturing of components
14:15 for required for the drone,
14:17 manufacturing of components
14:18 which actually build the anti-drone technologies.
14:21 Now, these are the components
14:22 which are the heart of any particular bigger system.
14:26 And if these are being manufactured here in India,
14:29 I think then that is the real essence of self-reliance
14:33 in defense technologies.
14:35 Now, what I would want it to be coupled with
14:38 is maybe something like a PIL in defense.
14:41 So if you have a, sorry, a PLI scheme in defense,
14:45 production linked incentives in defense,
14:47 because these kind of PIL five lists that we have seen,
14:52 they have already generated huge amount
14:54 of long-term opportunities,
14:56 which will in turn give a lot of production scope
15:00 for the domestic industry.
15:01 And if you are production ready in defense technologies,
15:04 I think you're also world ready
15:06 when it comes to defense technologies.
15:07 So we should incentivize productionization
15:10 of defense technologies by giving some incentives.
15:13 This is what I would want to do.
15:16 - You need incentivize to of course make
15:19 Indian defense companies,
15:21 players in the global defense sector.
15:23 So Amchandani, what are your thoughts?
15:24 What would you like to see in that sense?
15:27 I mean, like of course, Mr. Atluri and Sintrajan
15:31 both indicated, we have to give an impetus.
15:34 You have to incentivize.
15:36 What category, what products in your opinion
15:38 should the government push and incentivize at this stage?
15:42 And what can we actually realistically expect?
15:44 I mean, one thing is a list,
15:45 but the other thing is having that list fulfilled.
15:47 - So I would say there are a couple of things
15:51 that the government needs to push.
15:53 One from a financial or fiscal perspective
15:59 would be the incentivization
16:03 of the funding of domestic R&D.
16:06 I think that is a critical part of the ecosystem.
16:10 It's one thing to talk about incentivizing
16:13 A product or B product.
16:16 My sense would be that the thrust is on building
16:20 indigenous capability and indigenous capability
16:24 is a complete ecosystem.
16:27 It starts from large platforms.
16:30 It goes down to subsystems.
16:33 It goes down to components.
16:35 And therefore there are different tiers of industry
16:40 which are involved.
16:41 There could be the small scale industry,
16:44 the MSMEs, the larger platform players.
16:48 And broadly what is required is access to R&D money
16:53 because defense R&D obviously doesn't have
16:58 that kind of high speed payback.
17:00 It takes time.
17:02 A lot of it is very niche research
17:05 and the incentivizing of domestic R&D
17:10 I would say is one thing.
17:11 For the MSMEs, the access to capital
17:15 would be the second thing that I would say.
17:18 And thirdly, what is really required
17:22 is the speed of the procurement process.
17:28 While a number of large platforms have been ordered,
17:33 many of these have been given to the public sector, et cetera.
17:38 And the speed of inducting the private industry
17:43 into faster release of orders,
17:47 the cycle time between taking an acceptance of necessity
17:52 to signing a contract.
17:55 We really need to see shrinking of all of this
17:58 to enable the industry to gather momentum.
18:02 - Right, we'll talk about specific action
18:07 or changes that we're expecting to see in this budget.
18:10 We will take a break.
18:10 We'll come back in a few minutes.
18:11 Stay tuned.
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20:31 - Welcome back.
20:40 You're watching a pre-budget special
20:42 where we're in conversation
20:43 with the defense industry stalwarts on the show.
20:46 Thanks gentlemen.
20:47 Thanks for standing by.
20:48 Satyuri, I'll come to you with this one.
20:50 It's all been about export and the trust on export.
20:54 And of course, we've made headline exports this year,
20:57 of course, net importer to net exporter
21:00 for the defense sector.
21:01 How and what actions do you expect the government to announce
21:05 or the ministry to announce in this budget
21:07 to accelerate defense exports?
21:10 How do you think, or what would you like them to do
21:13 to identify products, companies
21:15 for that encouragement or incentives?
21:18 - I think first we should, you know,
21:21 see companies that have really products
21:24 that can easily sell in the export market.
21:26 And that would be, you know, for example,
21:29 companies that have, they have already exporting,
21:32 they have patents, global patents for them.
21:34 They are global champions in a way.
21:36 Government should actually try to identify
21:38 these few pockets in the defense industry
21:41 and then aggressively promote it
21:43 because now they know that they have world-class products
21:46 and whichever friendly countries get them,
21:48 they will be very, very happy with the products.
21:51 So, and if we can focus on this,
21:53 again, 18, 20 kind of a potato kind of situation,
21:55 that you don't try to focus across all the domains
21:58 that you have, but only in few,
22:00 20% of the products are, you know,
22:01 15% of the products that will give you,
22:04 that are absolutely world-class
22:05 and will give a lot of export edge in the global market.
22:10 So I think, and government should, of course, you know,
22:11 the DAs should be tasked in that, you know,
22:14 thing, the KPI, that how much have you sold,
22:17 how much of the products have been sold,
22:19 how much of the products have been included in their budgets,
22:21 what are the specifications,
22:23 RFPs convenient to the industry.
22:25 If all this is laid out along with, you know,
22:27 government-to-government visits,
22:29 where industry goes along with them
22:31 and they are specifically tasked,
22:32 these global champions are tasked
22:34 to present the products and get the orders,
22:36 I think that will go in a big way.
22:38 Again, you know, not very deep and mild way,
22:41 but, you know, few products or segments,
22:43 just focus on them and say,
22:45 go to the global friendly countries
22:48 and say these are the best products in the world,
22:50 buy it from us, almost stand as a guarantee
22:53 for those companies,
22:54 because those products are already being used by India
22:57 and Indian armed forces can certify
22:59 that these products are absolutely world-class.
23:01 And, you know, typically the Indian trial process
23:05 is the toughest in the world.
23:06 I mean, you go to Thar Desert,
23:08 you go to Srinagar, then you go to Northeast,
23:10 with humidity, then you go to South.
23:12 It's very, very difficult.
23:13 Any product that works in all these places
23:15 are actually very, very easy to sell
23:17 anywhere in the ends of the world.
23:18 So I think export should be a focus
23:20 and, you know, thanks to the kind of,
23:22 by the way, there is a sea change in the support
23:25 that we're getting already.
23:26 From 10 years back to now,
23:27 we can see a lot of changes happening
23:30 and then the government standing also
23:31 is very Indian to Indian government
23:33 is looked at respectfully by others.
23:36 So you should leverage this standing that we have
23:38 by offering a great different product
23:40 to our partners, partner countries.
23:44 - Right. So, Majin, you want to come in another space
23:46 with emerging defense technology.
23:49 They've talked about new technology in air defense,
23:52 drones, so much in terms of new developments, right?
23:57 And I've also heard the defense ministry talk about
23:59 how they would like the private sector
24:01 to take lead in the space.
24:03 Now, what would you as an industry representative,
24:05 somebody who does this day in and day out for a living,
24:09 would like the government to do for you
24:11 or announce to encourage your investments in the space?
24:15 - I think taking a cue from what Arun sir said
24:18 some time back, that if we incentivize
24:21 the development portion in the defense,
24:24 I think last budget also slotted some 25%
24:27 of the DRD budget for the industry to develop.
24:30 I think this is where the wind is going to go,
24:33 where more and more developments would come to the industry
24:38 with the hope that it gets developed,
24:40 one, in a much faster pace.
24:43 And secondly, with a clear intent of it being commercialized.
24:46 So what these two will create the necessary torque
24:49 that is required for a development to happen.
24:51 With this, what happens is the industry has two,
24:56 its force, one, the handholding of DRD
25:00 and second, access to the academia,
25:02 which these, along with the industry,
25:04 form the three dimensions of the development.
25:06 And when this comes into action,
25:09 I think more and more technologies,
25:11 more and more critical technologies
25:13 will start getting developed here.
25:15 Now, once you start developing these technologies,
25:17 I think your exports or your even,
25:22 what do you say, cutting edge technology readiness
25:26 will all be taken care of.
25:28 - So Ramchandani, you alluded to this.
25:29 You said we need to build a whole ecosystem around this
25:32 and it's not going to be one budget
25:34 or one government or one year.
25:35 This is more of a long-term plan for India
25:38 and we got to be able to defend ourselves
25:40 at the bottom of it.
25:42 But let's take baby steps and talk about small steps
25:44 that you're expecting in order to build this ecosystem.
25:48 And I think the steps are in the right direction
25:49 from this budget particularly.
25:51 I mean, it's all about looking inward,
25:54 supporting ourselves,
25:54 and we've done a pretty good job so far.
25:56 But if you can quantify or list out specific areas
26:00 that you think that needs to be done to get that going
26:03 or to encourage that as we go into a new year.
26:07 - Okay, so again, looking at from a budget perspective,
26:12 Majan talked about the announcement of 25% of R&D budget
26:23 going down to industry, academia, and startups.
26:27 Now, we need to have a mechanism in place for this to happen.
26:31 I understand that the government is working
26:34 on a suitable mechanism.
26:36 But implementing a mechanism that would allow,
26:40 you know, today, DRDO budgets are in the tune
26:44 of 20,000 odd crores.
26:46 And how much of this money could flow down into the industry?
26:52 What is the mechanism that money getting channeled
26:56 to the right R&D to the, you know,
27:00 people who have the infrastructure
27:02 and capability to do that research?
27:05 All of this is things which have to be worked out
27:08 and implemented so that action starts on the ground.
27:13 You know, more funds are spent on development,
27:16 newer products are inducted, tried out, tested.
27:20 So I would say this is one of the things.
27:23 Coming to exports, the government has done a lot
27:29 and, you know, the results are there to see.
27:32 But let's look at the target which the government set for itself.
27:37 You know, we kind of hit $2 billion of export last year.
27:44 And, you know, we've targeted $5 billion by 2025.
27:51 And all of this really means a huge acceleration
27:57 of the quantum of exports.
27:59 So we need to be able to export now larger platforms, etc.
28:04 And unless that happens, you know,
28:07 $2 billion is not going to become $5 billion.
28:10 If you're not exporting goods, you know,
28:13 programs where you've got a $1 billion order
28:16 or $750 million order,
28:18 you need scale of the programs as well.
28:21 And how we are going to trust those kind of bigger exports?
28:27 We did see some success with the promos.
28:32 And, you know, there are other platforms
28:34 that the government is trying to push,
28:36 whether they are naval platforms or the LCA and so on.
28:41 And we really need to see how this can happen
28:44 to give that level of quantum jump.
28:47 The other thing in terms of, you know,
28:51 incentivization and making us more competitive,
28:54 of course, I do believe that our industry
28:57 with its, you know, in-house developed products
29:01 is certainly very, very competitive.
29:04 But, you know, typical like duty drawback benefits
29:09 for exporters, the road-tap scheme,
29:11 which is being talked about now,
29:13 defense gets, you know, 0% on road-tap.
29:17 There could be a couple of percentage points
29:19 which are justifiably, you know,
29:22 should be available for the defense industry.
29:26 So these are some of the smaller things
29:28 which can be done, which can enable the exports to happen.
29:32 And, of course, you know, the biggest challenge
29:36 on our competitiveness is our cost of capital
29:39 and whatever can be done to ease that.
29:42 The other aspect is that a lot of the buyers
29:47 are smaller countries that look for credit line funding.
29:52 And I would say that an export credit fund
29:55 if can be created, you know, we rely on the Ex-Im Bank
30:00 to deliver on lines of credit to some of the countries.
30:05 And Ex-Im Bank processes are probably a little complex,
30:10 meant for more generic exports.
30:13 And for defense exports, a dedicated export credit fund,
30:18 which would speedily, you know, end of the day,
30:21 we are competing in an international market.
30:24 And when the buyer is looking for credit,
30:27 if we can speedily work out the credit,
30:30 give attractive credit terms,
30:32 it would definitely boost our exports
30:35 because that's what the other countries are doing.
30:37 So we need to put all these mechanisms in place.
30:42 And this will, I mean, we are in the right direction.
30:47 We need to build more momentum.
30:49 It's all that I'm saying.
30:50 Thank you very, very much, gentlemen.
30:52 It's such a pleasure to have all three of you on this panel
30:54 and have this chat.
30:55 Thank you so much.
30:55 And we'll hopefully see all of you soon.
30:57 My pleasure.
30:59 With that, it's a wrap on this pre-budget edition
31:02 as we chat with the industry stalwarts
31:04 for the defense sector and their demands and their wish list.
31:07 Thank you.
31:08 (Music)
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