Why Australia is having a wet El Nino weather event

ABC NEWS (Australia)

Australia's east coast has endured severe wet weather in recent weeks. In Queensland a series of severe thunderstorms has left many wondering how it could be so wet in an El Nino year?

Transcript

00:00 It's no doubt Australian weather is one of extremes, but when the Bureau of Meteorology

00:08 officially declared an El Nino event in September, we were told to brace for a hot summer.

00:15 What we are probably projecting for the summer is that Australia will continue to see warm

00:19 and dry weather and it's really up to individuals and communities now to prepare for a summer

00:25 of heat and fire hazards.

00:28 And we've seen a cyclone in the north, extreme rainfall along the east coast and severe flooding

00:33 in Queensland, Victoria and South Australia.

00:37 So how did this all happen?

00:39 Well experts have described El Nino patterns like loading the dice or spinning a pinwheel.

00:45 Essentially it's a game of chance.

00:48 Typically without any forecast there is an equal chance there could be a wet, dry or

00:53 normal year.

00:54 But when an El Nino is on the cards, the probability of dry and hot conditions increases while

01:00 wet weather decreases.

01:02 So when it comes time to spinning that wheel, there's a good chance we'll land on hot and

01:07 dry.

01:08 The reality is every El Nino is different.

01:12 There's not a set pattern of how they're going to behave, so each year is a new experience.

01:17 While there are several factors that contribute, the main climate driver has been the relatively

01:22 warm sea surface temperatures near eastern Australia in recent months.

01:27 The warm SSTs, as they're called, can lead to increased water vapour in the air which

01:32 in turn can cause more rain.

01:34 And that increased moisture creates favourable conditions for thunderstorm activity.

01:40 But what has experts most concerned is the effects that climate change will have on El

01:45 Nino.

01:47 We know El Nino and La Nino will still happen, but it's not completely clear the effect that

01:51 climate change will have.

01:53 Will it make the events more extreme?

01:55 Will it dampen them?

01:56 Will it be more frequent?

01:57 It's sort of a wait and see as we understand this new climate pattern that we've never

02:01 seen before.

02:02 [BLANK_AUDIO]

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