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Samina Nalwala, Niraj Shah and Tamanna Inamdar bring you all this and more as we head towards the 'India Market Open'. #NDTVProfitLive

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Transcript
00:00:00 in yesterday's day of trade.
00:00:01 - Yeah, HDFC bank driving that thing
00:00:03 on the bank nifty, Samina.
00:00:04 But, you know, and as we discussed yesterday as well,
00:00:07 maybe it was par for the course, something like this,
00:00:09 and most people haven't made too much of it.
00:00:11 - And I think volumes are also fairly light, right?
00:00:13 So there's nothing really to be concerned about.
00:00:14 Healthy profit taking, we've been talking about it
00:00:16 for a few weeks now, so I think--
00:00:17 - Samina's happy that that's happened.
00:00:19 - No, only because I feel like if you consolidate
00:00:21 and then move up, it sort of gives it a little more,
00:00:24 you know, you're a little more confident,
00:00:25 if that makes sense.
00:00:27 You seem disappointed.
00:00:28 - No, no, no, no, I'm cool with it.
00:00:29 It's okay, par for the course.
00:00:31 Par for the course, right?
00:00:33 - Yeah, yeah, so very quickly,
00:00:34 I'll take you through the global cues as well this morning.
00:00:37 It's quiet across most parts of Asia.
00:00:40 Remember, very few markets have come back
00:00:42 to trade across Asian equity markets.
00:00:45 China is one market that's trading flat to slightly low,
00:00:48 so again, this market has been a huge underperformer
00:00:51 in 2023, not much relief expected
00:00:54 for Chinese equity markets this morning.
00:00:57 They had some economic data which showed contraction
00:01:00 in the manufacturing sector,
00:01:01 and I remember that's been the trend
00:01:03 over the last few quarters,
00:01:04 but no relief on manufacturing just yet for China.
00:01:07 Japan is one market I wanna quickly mention.
00:01:10 Those markets are closed and will only open for trade
00:01:13 on the 4th of January, but a very unfortunate last evening,
00:01:18 which is Japanese time, and of course, afternoon for India,
00:01:21 Japan was hit by a pretty lethal earthquake
00:01:25 followed by a tsunami, some disruption,
00:01:27 not too many lives lost, but nevertheless worth a mention.
00:01:31 Japan, remember, has also been one
00:01:32 of the best-performing Asian markets in 2023.
00:01:35 The Nikkei itself is up 28%,
00:01:38 making it the best market for Asia.
00:01:40 Apart from that, like I said, most markets remain closed.
00:01:44 Couple of important data points
00:01:46 that you will watch out for in Asia,
00:01:47 you've got factory output from the S&P Globe
00:01:50 for China, Australia, and South Korea,
00:01:53 and Singapore will be reporting its fourth quarter GDP data.
00:01:56 So those are a few cues we are tracking.
00:01:58 Wall Street doesn't come back to trade till later today,
00:02:01 which also means that Dow Futures, Nasdaq, and S&P
00:02:04 are all trading flat.
00:02:06 We aren't anticipating too much
00:02:09 in terms of volumes for global markets either,
00:02:11 because you're just coming back to work
00:02:13 for a lot of those global countries.
00:02:16 Apart from that, oil continues to inch closer
00:02:20 to $80 a barrel.
00:02:21 Around $78 is what we have the reading on crude,
00:02:24 largely on back of pressures
00:02:27 and pressure around the Red Sea.
00:02:29 So crude will be on the radar.
00:02:31 It's a fact to be watching out for.
00:02:33 And near-rich crude, not just globally,
00:02:36 but it's such an important trigger point
00:02:37 for what happens with Indian equities as well going forward.
00:02:40 Apart from earnings,
00:02:41 the other joker in the pack will be crude.
00:02:43 - Yeah, most certainly, and hopefully this doesn't worsen,
00:02:45 just from a global trade perspective.
00:02:47 But yeah, I mean, well-behaved thus far.
00:02:49 Let's wait and watch if that holds out too.
00:02:50 But Samin is damn right on that.
00:02:52 So remember, Asia's okay, GIFT Nifty or the SGX Nifty.
00:02:58 I would really be surprised if there is a dramatic movement
00:03:02 on either direction for any of these.
00:03:03 They have 26 points implied open.
00:03:05 Let's wait and watch how that shapes up.
00:03:07 But so what's the trade set up for the day?
00:03:10 Just looking at what's happened to trade
00:03:11 in the last three or four trading sessions,
00:03:13 that line of, or that zone of 21,600
00:03:18 to 21,650 or 700 has been holding forth.
00:03:23 And that's great news also
00:03:24 because from a put OI perspective,
00:03:27 21,700 has a large or the maximum put OI addition
00:03:31 that has happened.
00:03:32 And therefore it kind of becomes a line in the sand.
00:03:34 If we defend that, then that's maybe good news, right?
00:03:38 We don't have too much to worry about,
00:03:41 except for the fact that when I look at quant indicators,
00:03:44 and there are two or three that are available to look at,
00:03:47 they're pointing towards
00:03:49 we being in the extreme greed zone.
00:03:51 Now, therefore, would that mean that
00:03:53 you wanna be careful with the leverage positions?
00:03:56 And if you're making money into some of the trades,
00:03:59 since it's very difficult to time the top,
00:04:01 might as well take some money off the table
00:04:03 in select pockets.
00:04:04 Remember, yesterday, I think Avenda Spark,
00:04:07 if I'm not wrong, in their note,
00:04:09 Dr. Sreekanarayan in the studio,
00:04:11 and various other people have spoken about
00:04:13 Chandan Thaparayan in the Twitter spaces
00:04:15 or the X spaces yesterday,
00:04:16 spoke about how January from a time cycle study
00:04:20 points towards a possibility
00:04:21 of some bit of a dip coming in.
00:04:23 Samina yesterday highlighted how eight of the 11 times
00:04:26 in the last eight of 11 times,
00:04:30 January has been a month
00:04:31 which hasn't given the greatest of returns.
00:04:33 Don't try and catch the top.
00:04:35 Maybe take some chips off the table while you can,
00:04:37 while the markets are still giving you the chance.
00:04:39 Maybe it might not be a bad idea.
00:04:41 But within all of that, the sector to focus on,
00:04:44 almost everybody unequivocally talking about power
00:04:47 is being the sector.
00:04:48 And we're going to be talking about some bit of it
00:04:49 in the editor's cut today, Samina, you and me,
00:04:51 but just the kind of order flow that is coming in
00:04:54 for most companies and including Power Grid,
00:04:56 which we'll talk about today,
00:04:57 just spectacular as to what's happening with power.
00:04:59 So that pocket remains center stage.
00:05:02 - In fact, the stocks have been outstanding
00:05:04 to say the least in 2023.
00:05:06 But Neeraj, I just want to come back
00:05:07 to what we saw in trade yesterday.
00:05:09 And you talked about the Nifty.
00:05:10 Another question also is,
00:05:13 we've talked about how banking has been underperforming
00:05:15 for the last 11 and 12 months.
00:05:17 We saw very smart comeback on Bank Nifty in December,
00:05:21 8% rally on the Bank Nifty.
00:05:24 Yesterday as well, it did attempt a dash towards 48,500,
00:05:28 struggled around those levels,
00:05:29 and finally went home with a 200 point correction.
00:05:32 I do believe that if 48,000 is maintained,
00:05:36 it will provide a little bit of an uptake.
00:05:38 We're still about 400 odd points
00:05:40 away from its previous record of 48,636.
00:05:43 But your frontline names tried to do their bit,
00:05:47 but all of them sold off.
00:05:48 So this is where I'm a little confused, right?
00:05:50 So if Bank Nifty does not provide the steady leadership
00:05:53 that Nifty is looking for,
00:05:55 will the other sectors pull their weight?
00:05:57 - Good question.
00:05:58 - IT, of course, is what you think is seen buying as well.
00:06:00 - The last few years, I mean,
00:06:02 the gearings have been spectacular for IT.
00:06:05 But yeah, it's a million dollar question that you pose.
00:06:07 If banks don't do it, what does?
00:06:08 Because what if IT, once the commentary comes out,
00:06:12 starts to sulk as well,
00:06:13 which is what most analysts seem to believe.
00:06:15 - And I don't think the expectations are running very high.
00:06:17 So IT stocks is well running ahead
00:06:19 of their earnings expectation.
00:06:22 But there was sector rotation.
00:06:23 We saw that yesterday.
00:06:24 I think barring specialty chemicals,
00:06:26 every other sector has been seen buying across the board.
00:06:30 So yesterday, the day belonged
00:06:32 to a couple of those fertilizer names.
00:06:34 I mean, from GSFC, FACT, RCF,
00:06:36 those counters saw heavy buying
00:06:38 and they actually went home as well
00:06:40 with pretty decent gains.
00:06:42 Apart from that, Octo has seen some profit taking,
00:06:44 but Octo Ancillary saw some of those counters,
00:06:46 like JBM, Madison, Sumi, saw buying.
00:06:49 So I think it's the smaller sectors that are coming in,
00:06:52 which once again reintegrates,
00:06:53 there could be some froth.
00:06:54 You want to take some profits off your table,
00:06:56 like Neeraj said.
00:06:57 Very important at this point.
00:06:58 It's always tough calling it a top.
00:07:00 And I think for traders, it's doubly harder
00:07:02 because you've got to make two decisions, right?
00:07:04 Decision to enter and decision to exit,
00:07:06 which usually is a tougher call to take,
00:07:10 which is much further away
00:07:12 from what investors usually do, right?
00:07:13 When you're investing, you're really taking an entry call.
00:07:16 You're not really taking an exit call.
00:07:17 And that's what one needs to keep in mind.
00:07:20 But let's also highlight stocks
00:07:22 that you want to watch out for.
00:07:23 GIF Nifty is indicating to a flat, a slightly higher start.
00:07:27 We will take some heart from that.
00:07:29 A few stocks, in fact,
00:07:31 the bunches of smaller sectors as well, not smaller,
00:07:33 pardon me, Octo is going to be one you want to watch out for
00:07:35 on back of its monthly numbers that will come through.
00:07:39 But we'll highlight stocks for you
00:07:41 in what we are watching out for.
00:07:43 But before I go to that, Neeraj,
00:07:44 you want to comment on FI flows by any chance?
00:07:47 No, I mean, yesterday was a small number,
00:07:49 rather insignificant, really.
00:07:50 But I must tell you, I mean,
00:07:51 Agam mentioned this to me outside
00:07:53 and he said from what we saw in the last 45 minutes,
00:07:56 while volumes were what they were,
00:08:00 he does believe there was an institutional sell
00:08:02 that potentially took place.
00:08:03 It was not your H&Is and it was not retail investors.
00:08:06 It could have been one take profit order
00:08:08 that came in from an institutional desk,
00:08:10 but we'll find out as we go through the day.
00:08:13 In the meantime, like I said, stocks to watch out for.
00:08:15 We've got a bunch of those
00:08:16 that we are tracking this morning.
00:08:18 I'm going to quickly start running through them.
00:08:20 APL Apollo, so watch out for that one.
00:08:23 They reported earnings,
00:08:24 the third quarter sales volume have come in at 6 lakh tons,
00:08:28 which is down 11% quarter on quarter.
00:08:30 So this stock number is not as good as the street expected.
00:08:34 Apart from that, you've also got the Raipur plant ramp up,
00:08:39 the management has said is on expected lines.
00:08:41 The Dubai plant has also started production in December 23.
00:08:46 You've been tracking this one?
00:08:48 - Yeah, and Samina,
00:08:49 the December sales volume in particular
00:08:50 was down 10 and a half percent quarter on quarter, right?
00:08:53 So for the month of December also, not that great numbers.
00:08:57 And for a stock which trades at 55 times trailing
00:09:01 12 months PE, I think they better deliver every single month
00:09:05 and every single quarter, which they haven't.
00:09:07 The only-- - Disappointment.
00:09:08 - Disappointment for sure.
00:09:09 The only thing is in their press release,
00:09:11 and I read this, and I think we can put that out.
00:09:13 They have said that the overall sales volume,
00:09:16 their commentary is that the overall sales volume
00:09:19 shall improve in the subsequent quarters
00:09:21 as the signs for restocking are already visible
00:09:25 post the recent reduction in domestic steel prices.
00:09:27 Now that's a respite, but for a very expensive stock,
00:09:31 trading at 55 times, this is a disappointing month
00:09:33 and a disappointing quarter for sure.
00:09:35 - And the stock will be one that we will see a gap down on.
00:09:38 It wouldn't be ruled out.
00:09:39 You would see the stock.
00:09:40 But also, I mean, Neeraj, in defense of the counter,
00:09:44 the last three months have also not seen much
00:09:46 of contribution coming on AP Apollo.
00:09:49 So while it looks very expensive,
00:09:51 I think the markets are realizing that
00:09:54 and factoring that in, the counter is down 6%
00:09:56 over a three-month period,
00:09:57 at a time when the rest of the market has been very robust.
00:10:01 Apart from that, Gensol Engineering,
00:10:03 now this one's been in the news for the last couple of weeks.
00:10:06 The board has approved fundraising plans
00:10:08 of 300 odd crores via QIP.
00:10:10 So the season of QIPs and IPOs continues into 2024 as well.
00:10:14 They expect the authorized share capital
00:10:16 will also increase by about 40 to 50 odd crores.
00:10:19 So that's really what they're gonna be doing
00:10:21 with that QIP raising.
00:10:22 They're expecting 4,000 crores by FY26
00:10:25 versus 393 crores in FY23.
00:10:29 So again, those are very, very ambitious numbers going up.
00:10:33 Expecting a 10X there by FY26 in terms of outlook
00:10:38 in what they're seeing.
00:10:39 They said they need about 200 to 300 odd crores
00:10:42 given the existing order book size.
00:10:44 And they'll also improve their debt equity ratio
00:10:47 to one is to one.
00:10:48 So that is where the fundraising money
00:10:50 will be going towards markets.
00:10:51 So probably we'll be excited about this one too.
00:10:54 Auto stocks, like I mentioned,
00:10:56 you've got TVS Motors, Ayesha and Tata Motors.
00:10:59 Those numbers is something you wanna watch out for
00:11:01 in terms of street reaction.
00:11:02 We will talk to Bajaj Auto later on in the show
00:11:05 at about 9.30 to understand whether or not
00:11:08 the decline in auto sales,
00:11:10 I mean, it's lower than what the street was expecting,
00:11:12 is in line with the management's internal expectations
00:11:16 and most importantly, Neeraj.
00:11:18 - Yeah, and Ayesha in particular,
00:11:20 I mean, the stocks probably showed some signs
00:11:23 of this chink yesterday because Ayesha Motors
00:11:25 was down in trade as viewers would remember.
00:11:27 Let's wait and watch if there is a bit of a problem
00:11:30 for that stock today as well.
00:11:32 One of the key stocks today could well be Power Grid.
00:11:36 It's been declared the successful bidder
00:11:38 to build 20 gigawatts transmission lines.
00:11:40 Now this is big.
00:11:42 This is big one from a Power Grid perspective.
00:11:44 Two, it's also big from a perspective of ancillaries
00:11:47 which essentially go into something like this.
00:11:50 So I think cable companies and particularly ones
00:11:53 which make these long distance high voltage cables
00:11:56 could well be in focus today as well.
00:11:58 And it's, I mean, so that is one piece of news.
00:12:02 I think power financing could well be in use as well.
00:12:04 We'll talk about that on a later cut in a moment,
00:12:06 but watch out.
00:12:07 We've been talking about how power remains a sector
00:12:09 to focus on.
00:12:10 And the company, Power Grid, is also going to build
00:12:13 two 765 kVDC lines crossing Rajasthan and Delhi.
00:12:18 So watch out for Power Grid in the session today.
00:12:21 Ultratech could well be in focus as well.
00:12:23 Q3 total sales volume was at 26 MT,
00:12:27 which was up about 2% quarter on quarter and 6% YOY.
00:12:31 No great shakes.
00:12:32 Just that the export and overseas gray cement
00:12:35 witnessed some very strong growth,
00:12:36 but that is of course on a low base.
00:12:39 Now, while I'm not too impressed with these numbers
00:12:42 because the belief was that cement dispatches
00:12:44 would look very strong,
00:12:46 I think brokerages are sanguine.
00:12:47 Systematics, for example, mentions that they have modeled
00:12:51 a sales volume of 118 MTPA for FY24,
00:12:55 which reflects a growth of 10%, et cetera, et cetera, et cetera.
00:12:59 Mainly, they're saying that they believe a volume CAGR
00:13:03 of 129.5 and 141.5 million metric tons in FY25 and 26.
00:13:10 Estimates are unchanged,
00:13:11 but they roll over the valuation to FY26
00:13:14 and arrive at a new valuation of 119.37 for Ultratech.
00:13:19 Now, we're not yet done with FY24,
00:13:22 and brokerages are rolling over valuations to FY26 as well.
00:13:26 So yeah, in three months' time,
00:13:28 it'll become one year forward.
00:13:29 For now, it is nearly two year forward,
00:13:32 so be mindful of that.
00:13:33 So that's Ultratech.
00:13:35 And then JTL Industries.
00:13:37 Last two things, JTL Industries recorded
00:13:39 the highest ever quarterly sales volume, up 76% YOI.
00:13:43 So JTL could well be in focus as well,
00:13:45 so that's the other thing to keep in mind.
00:13:47 Maybe that stock reacts positively, who knows?
00:13:50 And some stocks which moved up on delivery-based buying.
00:13:53 Yesterday, Samina and me were talking about
00:13:55 each of these stocks on the closing show,
00:13:58 but look at the delivery-based buying
00:13:59 that we saw in a JBM Auto, in a Walkhard,
00:14:04 and a clutch of other names out there, PTC, DCB Bank.
00:14:07 Some very strong buying,
00:14:09 and very strong volumes marked for delivery.
00:14:12 And this could make these stocks interesting
00:14:15 to monitor in the session today.
00:14:16 So with the technical experts,
00:14:17 we will definitely talk about them.
00:14:19 - I want to quickly add, Neeraj, to two more stocks.
00:14:23 Of course, not significant,
00:14:24 with a lot of GST notices going on
00:14:25 to most companies right now.
00:14:28 I just want to mention with Shila Foam now,
00:14:31 their joint commissioner, in fact,
00:14:32 has dropped the majority of demands of GST,
00:14:36 and has only asked the parent company of Sleepwell Mattresses
00:14:38 to pay about 3,251.
00:14:40 That's the number coming in.
00:14:47 So I'll, of course, recheck that one,
00:14:49 but this stock will be one you want to watch out for,
00:14:52 is Shila Foam, because while, like I said,
00:14:54 you've got a number of companies who've got GST notices
00:14:56 on the likes of an LIC as well.
00:14:58 We'll have more details on that,
00:15:00 and whether or not the reactor stocks
00:15:02 will be pertaining to us.
00:15:04 But talking about that, Neeraj,
00:15:05 also the GST number that came in,
00:15:07 I think that's pretty much ahead
00:15:09 of what the street was expecting.
00:15:10 Could be some relief in that sense.
00:15:13 - Yeah, well, if people are worrying
00:15:15 why is the disinvestment not happening,
00:15:16 hopefully GST revenues kind of soak up some of that as well.
00:15:20 So that could be interesting.
00:15:21 And just before we go to Editor's Cut, Samina,
00:15:23 as one brokerage note that I want to mention,
00:15:24 I don't know if we have graphics for the same or not,
00:15:26 but Nomura's note on Lupin.
00:15:28 So there is a Jefferies note on IT.
00:15:30 They are saying that they're underweight IT.
00:15:31 They have put out this whole Outlook 2024,
00:15:33 which I'm sure we'll cover on the show.
00:15:35 But Nomura's note on Lupin is interesting.
00:15:38 They have a buy call.
00:15:39 They have upped the target price
00:15:40 quite significantly on Lupin as well.
00:15:42 And this follows a slew of brokerage notes
00:15:44 doing that on Lupin.
00:15:45 And this follows what has been a banner year for Lupin.
00:15:48 If you look at the last 12-month performance,
00:15:51 or one-year performance for Lupin,
00:15:52 I think it's northwards of 75%.
00:15:54 So it's been a very strong showing for the stock.
00:15:57 And there is more upgrades
00:15:58 that have come in on the target price.
00:16:00 So watch out for Lupin as well.
00:16:02 But that brings us to the end of Trade Setup.
00:16:05 I'm going to leave you with a short break.
00:16:06 We'll be back with more from the show.
00:16:08 I'm sure you'll be back with us
00:16:09 at least for the day.
00:16:10 But me and Samina are going nowhere
00:16:13 because we are joining Alex on the Editor's Cut today.
00:16:17 Alex, why don't you tell us,
00:16:19 or why don't you tell our viewers
00:16:20 what do we have in store today?
00:16:22 - In fact, both of you are going to be telling our viewers
00:16:24 most of it.
00:16:25 I'm just setting it up for you.
00:16:27 But essentially, we are talking about something
00:16:29 that Neeraj was talking about during the Trade Setup,
00:16:31 which is the power space.
00:16:32 And specifically, we're going to be focusing
00:16:34 on the stocks, the likes of REC, PFC,
00:16:38 as well as the newly listed IREDA run up very substantially.
00:16:42 The question is, is the good news in the price?
00:16:45 And perhaps Neeraj will have a bit of an answer
00:16:47 for you there.
00:16:48 And there's also a conversation
00:16:50 around the latest update from CMIE.
00:16:53 They're talking about the CAPEX cycle,
00:16:56 and they're talking about a significant update there.
00:16:59 Of course, leading from the third quarter,
00:17:01 the numbers look good,
00:17:03 but the question still remains on the execution
00:17:06 of the projects that have been announced.
00:17:09 We've got Samina, who's got some very critical numbers
00:17:12 to talk about there.
00:17:13 - Should we start with her?
00:17:14 Because that's the big macro thing.
00:17:15 - That is the big macro.
00:17:16 - Thanks for throwing it in the deep end.
00:17:18 Okay, so very quickly, yes.
00:17:19 Like you said, the CMIE data is a little bit of a mixed bag.
00:17:22 So it's in rival mode, and that's what they're calling it.
00:17:25 So some green shoots as we go into a brand new year.
00:17:27 Investment mode, and I'm going to quote unquote,
00:17:29 has improved in the December quarter,
00:17:31 2.1 lakh crores of new projects have been announced.
00:17:35 Now this is 15% higher than what we saw in the last quarter.
00:17:39 So we're all getting excited about that number.
00:17:41 Capital expenditure, though, on the other hand,
00:17:43 is actually much lower.
00:17:44 So it's coming in nine and a half lakh crores,
00:17:46 which is why, why?
00:17:47 More importantly, that number does not look as good
00:17:51 as of course the uptick in investment cycle.
00:17:54 But I think what the street would want to take heart from
00:17:56 is the private companies have led the way this time.
00:17:59 So you had JSW Neo Energy has pumped about 15,000 odd crores
00:18:04 in their project in Elmora.
00:18:06 You've also had Welspa New Energy
00:18:08 that has pumped about 13.8 odd crores in Odisha.
00:18:12 So both of those majors have led the way
00:18:15 in terms of private investments.
00:18:18 New investments are clearly coming from the private sector
00:18:21 on expectation of consistency on terms of,
00:18:24 continuity rather, in terms of policies.
00:18:27 So after what we saw in state election outcome,
00:18:30 I think India Inc. is a little more confident
00:18:32 in terms of making those announcements,
00:18:34 making those investments.
00:18:35 But the flip of that is public sector investments
00:18:38 is still not gonna pick up, right?
00:18:39 Because there is fiscal consolidation, that's the focus.
00:18:42 I think the center will want to focus on that.
00:18:44 On back of that, public sector appetite
00:18:46 is expected to shrink, and that's the general reading
00:18:49 in terms of what those numbers really mean.
00:18:51 Manufacturing continues to lead the way.
00:18:53 So 65% of the new projects have come in
00:18:56 from the manufacturing sector,
00:18:58 which is up nearly 95% quarter on quarter.
00:19:01 Construction, real estate, and we've been talking about that.
00:19:03 Neeraj has been talking about how construction,
00:19:05 real estate is suddenly seeing a pickup.
00:19:07 That space has seen a 59% jump, Q on Q,
00:19:11 but it's a 5X year on year.
00:19:13 So it's seen a massive jump from exactly a year ago.
00:19:17 Electricity services continue to fall.
00:19:20 Inorganic chemicals, so specialty chemicals
00:19:23 are seeing a pretty smart pickup in inorganic spending, right?
00:19:25 So one third of manufacturing has actually come from a space
00:19:29 that again, we've been talking about,
00:19:31 and how we do anticipate the next two quarters
00:19:33 to be the end of the rough run
00:19:35 for the specialty chemical space.
00:19:37 Remember, these were the darlings of the street, right?
00:19:39 So no surprises that the money--
00:19:40 - The question is who's gonna stick their neck out
00:19:42 and say that the bottom has been hit.
00:19:44 - I think, you know, guys like you,
00:19:45 (overlapping chatter)
00:19:46 have actually said that.
00:19:47 They're pretty, I mean, they've had a rough,
00:19:49 they were, you know, the darlings of the street,
00:19:51 and they've gone from pride to glory to, yeah.
00:19:55 - Well, apart from that, domestic consumption
00:19:57 will remain soft.
00:19:58 Global demand could be a concern,
00:20:00 so that's what you wanna keep in mind.
00:20:02 But I think what, again, we've talked about
00:20:04 in various ways is execution, right?
00:20:07 That continues to still remain a challenge.
00:20:09 So while projects have seen an uptick,
00:20:11 only 1.2 lakh roll orders have been completed
00:20:14 versus a 1.7 lakh roll, which is a rather average
00:20:17 in that space.
00:20:18 So completion has declined 15%, quarter on quarter.
00:20:21 This comes in after a 7% decline
00:20:23 that we'd already seen in the previous quarter.
00:20:25 So while investment outlaw, capital expenditure,
00:20:28 all of those look great,
00:20:30 execution continues to remain a challenge.
00:20:32 - And in fact, I think that is a theme
00:20:34 for quite a few of the projects that have been announced
00:20:37 in the infrastructure space as well, Neeraj,
00:20:40 where the big ticket items have come in,
00:20:43 but then a lot of people are saying,
00:20:44 hey, you know what, order books look great.
00:20:47 When are you gonna convert that?
00:20:48 And I think to a certain extent,
00:20:50 it's interesting, the dichotomy, right?
00:20:52 So private players are now stepping up
00:20:55 and saying we're gonna spend money.
00:20:56 And the government spending just before the elections,
00:20:59 of course, is going to ease off a little bit.
00:21:01 And that is the point, right?
00:21:03 - Yeah, and Samina was making that point as well.
00:21:05 You know, at least off air, that too,
00:21:08 that the expectation was that government CAPEX
00:21:10 at some point of time,
00:21:11 quarter three, quarter four might come off.
00:21:13 Does private come and stand up?
00:21:16 And you know, HITR too, we had seen private CAPEX,
00:21:19 green hydrogen, data storage, et cetera,
00:21:22 and data centers, et cetera.
00:21:23 Now, as Samina is saying,
00:21:25 it's interesting to see that chemicals
00:21:28 is making that large CAPEX presence felt.
00:21:30 And that's great news, right?
00:21:32 Because we need this to come for India manufacturing
00:21:35 and the CAPEX story to stay alive and kicking.
00:21:37 - And for the manufacturing space to really kick on
00:21:41 into the next leg of growth, you need infrastructure, right?
00:21:43 And from that perspective,
00:21:45 it's an interesting segue to say that the roadmap
00:21:49 for growth for a lot of these infrastructure companies,
00:21:51 and indeed the financiers of those infrastructure companies
00:21:55 is quite strong.
00:21:57 But the question is,
00:21:58 and you were talking about this in your trade setup, Neeraj,
00:22:01 is that brokerages have gone forward into FY26.
00:22:04 Are we also discounting earnings
00:22:05 that far for some of these companies?
00:22:07 - If you can't justify it in the near term,
00:22:08 we just need to spend the time.
00:22:10 - Push the goalpost a little bit.
00:22:11 - Roll over, yeah.
00:22:12 - I mean, so yeah, you know, maybe too early for FY26,
00:22:15 but you know, Manish Chondhalia on the opening day
00:22:17 or the opening week mentioned that, you know,
00:22:19 that's part for the cause and he's by side,
00:22:21 not the sell side.
00:22:21 So, you know, maybe you take it.
00:22:23 But yeah, the point is,
00:22:24 so we, a bunch of infrastructure finance companies,
00:22:27 but we are focusing mainly on power for this piece,
00:22:29 at least, and the power finance,
00:22:31 power financiers, which is BFC, REC, EREDA, right?
00:22:34 Now, the big picture,
00:22:36 the power sector is expected to add nearly 212 gigawatts
00:22:40 of total capacity during FY22 to 27.
00:22:44 This is as per a care edge note that I've borrowed it from.
00:22:47 So the existing capacity just for reference is 426
00:22:50 as of November 2023.
00:22:52 So therefore they nearly add 50% over the next five years
00:22:55 of the existing capacity or all these years.
00:22:58 - Right.
00:22:59 - You know, that's the substance of the kind of addition
00:23:01 that we're talking about.
00:23:03 And obviously this happens,
00:23:04 I mean, as any infrastructure project,
00:23:07 debt financing is a large part, 70%, 80%, what have you.
00:23:10 So debt financing is pegged at around 11 lakh crores
00:23:15 for this period.
00:23:16 Now, you can divvy up as to when does execution happen
00:23:19 and how does the financing happen in which year.
00:23:21 Now that is, you know, searching for decimals,
00:23:23 but the larger picture is this.
00:23:24 Now, is there advantage BFC, REC, EREDA?
00:23:28 And there are numbers out here to take account of.
00:23:32 So the disbursements by the IFCs,
00:23:33 by IFCs I mean infrastructure finance companies,
00:23:36 the disbursements by IFCs will be higher in FY24.
00:23:39 Obviously goes without saying.
00:23:41 The various estimates range between 35 to 45% growth
00:23:45 in disbursements in FY24 YOY.
00:23:47 Now keep this in mind that the loan portfolio for IFCs,
00:23:50 Alex and Samina, has grown at a CAGR of 9%,
00:23:54 just 9% in the preceding three years,
00:23:56 and banks have stayed flat.
00:23:58 So one that these companies have grown their loan portfolio,
00:24:00 but it's only grown at 9%
00:24:02 and that has shown this traction in earnings.
00:24:04 What happens when this loan portfolios expand even more
00:24:07 and earnings expand even more, ROAs expand even more.
00:24:10 I think that's the key thing.
00:24:11 So that is part one.
00:24:13 The positive triggers,
00:24:14 we know that the sectoral tailwinds
00:24:15 would prop up the overall loans.
00:24:17 For example, LRAS Security says for REC,
00:24:20 the overall loans will grow by one and a half times
00:24:23 by FY26, not five, 10, 15%, one and a half times FY26.
00:24:28 So that is part one.
00:24:29 16% CAGR growth, loan growth forecast from FY23 to 26
00:24:33 by various analysts and gross NPAs have declined.
00:24:36 2019, the peak gross NPAs were about 11% or thereabouts.
00:24:41 They've come down, or 7% in FY19.
00:24:47 They have come down from 7% by nearly 400 basis points.
00:24:50 So naturally profitability also goes up as a result of that.
00:24:53 And that's happening on account of various reforms
00:24:55 that have been taken, right?
00:24:56 We know about them.
00:24:57 So that is one.
00:24:58 The only question is,
00:24:59 as is the question being asked for almost all sectors,
00:25:02 is all of this is, whether it's in the price or not, right?
00:25:05 So REC is up 155% in the last six months.
00:25:09 PFC up 124% in the last six months.
00:25:12 So there's a substantial gain that has already happened.
00:25:14 The price to adjusted book, I think this is for REC,
00:25:19 is over 1.5X FY25, not even FY24.
00:25:24 And this is at the higher end of the valuation range.
00:25:26 By any stretch of imagination,
00:25:28 these stocks haven't traded at these valuations
00:25:30 in the last decade.
00:25:31 Now you could argue that the decade is different
00:25:33 from the last decade, but still at some point of time,
00:25:35 you will think that, are we paying too much for this?
00:25:38 And there are risks, right?
00:25:39 Because there is a sectoral concentration,
00:25:42 nevermind how strong the sector is.
00:25:43 There is a client and a sector concentration out there
00:25:46 for these companies because they're lending
00:25:48 predominantly to one sector, not various forms of infra.
00:25:51 Now they're adding other forms of infra,
00:25:52 but it's not a very large portion.
00:25:54 So the only question, and there are no questions
00:25:56 about growth for these businesses,
00:25:58 the only question is the valuation.
00:25:59 - So, okay, the other question is,
00:26:02 we're assuming there are large chunk,
00:26:04 and you're talking about two lakh crore per annum
00:26:07 of incremental debt that is going to be,
00:26:12 required to be financed.
00:26:13 The question is, do these entities take the bulk of it,
00:26:16 which has been the case in the recent past,
00:26:19 because banks have been wary of getting
00:26:21 into the infrastructure space, and particularly power,
00:26:23 because they burned their fingers in the past.
00:26:25 And from that perspective, can the loan book grow that fast?
00:26:29 Can it, do they have the capacity
00:26:31 and the appetite to grow that much?
00:26:33 - Yeah, so banks, the share of power sector loans
00:26:36 and infra loans has stayed stagnant,
00:26:39 but the overall loan book has grown for banks as well.
00:26:42 So in some sense, banks' loan portfolio has also gone up,
00:26:45 just that, because the sector is doing so well,
00:26:47 on hindsight, people will say that banks
00:26:49 did not take advantage of the reformed power sector
00:26:52 and the kind of loan book that they could have,
00:26:56 which is what PFC, REC, and IRRA have done.
00:26:58 So now that's a question that banks will say,
00:27:01 let's talk about it two years down the line
00:27:02 when the NPAs start cropping up, if they do, who knows?
00:27:05 - Okay, all right, so maybe to a certain extent,
00:27:07 unanswered question on the one,
00:27:09 whether or not we're paying too much,
00:27:11 maybe we can ask a few of our experts
00:27:12 over the course of the day to give their view.
00:27:15 People have said that PSUs are just a tad bit hot
00:27:19 at this juncture, let's get their view on PFC, REC as well.
00:27:23 But that's all we have on this edition of the Editor's Cut.
00:27:26 There's lots more lined up before the start of trade,
00:27:29 and do stay tuned for that.
00:27:30 This is NDTV Profit.
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00:30:31 - All right, back with India market open
00:30:34 right here on NDTV Profit.
00:30:35 Let's take a look at the GIFNifty very quickly
00:30:38 and look at the implied open
00:30:39 and see how are we likely to start off trade
00:30:42 before I hand it over to Agam, my colleague
00:30:44 for the derivative space.
00:30:45 But the implied open will come up
00:30:47 on your screen in a moment.
00:30:48 Can we, or are we having Tuesday morning blues?
00:30:52 No, we aren't.
00:30:53 Or are we?
00:30:54 Okay, let's wait.
00:30:55 But I know that the implied open is indicating a start
00:30:57 which could be marginally higher, 20, 25 odd points.
00:31:01 Okay, 20 odd points.
00:31:02 Cool.
00:31:03 Slightly late, but not too much.
00:31:04 But you know what, Agam is never late
00:31:06 because he spots some of these derivative trends
00:31:09 before they are due to happen.
00:31:10 And we give you some very good option strategies
00:31:13 for you to trade.
00:31:14 Too much of patting on the back, Agam,
00:31:15 but take it away.
00:31:16 Good morning.
00:31:17 What is the stance looking like today?
00:31:18 - Right, so spotting a trend based on yesterday's
00:31:20 half an hour of trade is going to be very hard,
00:31:22 very challenging, Neeraj.
00:31:24 But I'm still going to attempt
00:31:25 as to what's really happened
00:31:27 in the last half an hour of trade.
00:31:28 That said, let's start by taking a look
00:31:30 at the indices.
00:31:31 Now, we did see new life highs for the major indices,
00:31:35 including the Nifty, which at the end of the day
00:31:37 closed well with marginal gains.
00:31:39 It was flat, actually.
00:31:41 And we didn't see too much change in open interest.
00:31:43 And coming down to the Bank Nifty as well,
00:31:45 well, again, we saw a little bit of unwinding
00:31:47 coming through as far as open interest is concerned,
00:31:49 declining around 1.2%.
00:31:51 And, well, marginal loss is there as well.
00:31:54 What's really happened in the last half an hour of trade
00:31:57 is that after we saw these benchmarks
00:31:59 hit a life high, we saw a sudden drop.
00:32:02 Now, we must remember that this is coming on the back
00:32:05 of, well, very low liquidity,
00:32:07 because we don't have too much activity
00:32:09 when it comes to not only options,
00:32:11 but also your cash stocks.
00:32:14 Now, what could have happened,
00:32:15 and we are posing some questions at the moment.
00:32:18 Yesterday was the BankEx expiry.
00:32:20 That is the BSE BankEx expiry.
00:32:23 And that's the weekly options expiry.
00:32:26 We know that that is not very liquid.
00:32:28 And we also know that there wasn't too much liquidity
00:32:30 with respect to banking stocks.
00:32:32 So if you consider something like a State Bank of India,
00:32:35 an HDFC Bank, an ICICI Bank,
00:32:37 all of these counters did see very little volumes.
00:32:42 The question really is that did someone, in fact,
00:32:45 try to take advantage of that low liquidity?
00:32:49 If you, in fact, do see the volumes
00:32:52 in the last 20 odd minutes,
00:32:54 especially when it comes to some of these larger names,
00:32:57 you realize that the volumes have certainly picked up
00:32:59 on a relative basis with respect to what's happened
00:33:02 earlier on in the session,
00:33:04 specifically something like an SPI
00:33:06 or something like an HDFC Bank.
00:33:09 Remember that HDFC Bank, State Bank of India,
00:33:12 along with ICICI Bank,
00:33:14 have a weightage of as much as 70,
00:33:17 70% on the BankEx,
00:33:20 which means that if you are just able to move the needle
00:33:23 just a tad bit,
00:33:25 it could impact considerably the option premiums
00:33:28 on the BankEx as well.
00:33:30 So this is the question that we are putting out,
00:33:32 whether or not someone did, in fact,
00:33:34 take advantage of this low liquidity.
00:33:37 We're not suggesting any illegal operations at the moment,
00:33:40 absolutely not a legal trade,
00:33:42 but the question at the end of the day,
00:33:45 legal trade, but the question at the end of the day
00:33:47 remains as to what really went down in the last half an hour.
00:33:50 Because of that traction,
00:33:52 did we see a little bit of an impact coming through
00:33:54 for the rest of the markets as well?
00:33:56 That said, that's as far as the BankEx is concerned.
00:33:58 And of course, today we will start seeing
00:34:00 a little more activity coming through
00:34:02 because we have the Finn Nifty expiry.
00:34:03 And once again, the same banking constituents
00:34:07 also come into focus because they also have
00:34:09 a considerable weightage on the Finn Nifty too.
00:34:12 Now, we'll talk about stocks as well
00:34:15 and take a look at where we have,
00:34:17 in fact, seen a lot more traction.
00:34:19 So when it comes to the broader markets,
00:34:21 the advanced decline ratio was very strong,
00:34:23 despite that half an hour volatility coming through.
00:34:26 And we did see advances for Delta Corp,
00:34:28 Gujarat Caps, Zyrus Life, along with Rampur Chini.
00:34:32 And Aishwarya Motors saw a little bit of weakness
00:34:34 with fresh shorts building in.
00:34:36 And as far as those stocks which saw unwinding
00:34:39 in, well, open interest,
00:34:41 and remember that this is early days,
00:34:42 so we won't see too much unwinding coming through.
00:34:44 Well, we had Tech Mahindra, MRF,
00:34:46 Bank of Baroda, and Balkrishna in focus
00:34:48 in terms of short covering.
00:34:50 Now, that's as far as your, well, stocks are concerned.
00:34:54 What are our analysts making of these trends?
00:34:57 And what do we do when it comes to our own markets?
00:35:00 Let's get in Sherpa Rao.
00:35:01 She is from Prabodha Steel out there
00:35:03 and she looks at derivatives and technicals out there.
00:35:06 Sherpa, good morning and thanks so much for joining in.
00:35:09 I'm going to take your assessment
00:35:10 on what possibly could have happened yesterday
00:35:13 in the final hour of trade,
00:35:15 as well as how you are looking at trade
00:35:18 in the benchmarks in general going forward.
00:35:21 Good morning, everyone,
00:35:22 and wish you all a very happy new year.
00:35:25 Talking about indices, what happened yesterday,
00:35:27 it was also on expected lines
00:35:29 that we generally see the first day of the trading year,
00:35:32 you know, the first session.
00:35:34 We were expecting some sort of low volume in the market
00:35:37 and that played out quite well.
00:35:39 But of course, the intraday highs of lifetime highs
00:35:42 and if they're making, and then again, you know,
00:35:44 the sowing, and we saw the dip happening also instantly.
00:35:47 Indicates that, you know, people were actually waiting
00:35:50 for that highs to happen and then book some profits,
00:35:53 which played, I would give it a benefit of doubt
00:35:56 for one day session and not, you know, inferring that,
00:36:00 you know, we have some sort of texture change in the market.
00:36:03 If you look at the option chains as well,
00:36:05 you will understand that 21,700 on Nifty
00:36:08 is posing as a very strong support zone,
00:36:12 as well as we've seen the level of very aggressive put vectors,
00:36:15 you know, standing tall out there.
00:36:16 The individual strike PCR at 21,700 is also well above 2,
00:36:20 which indicates that we have a sort of cushion out there
00:36:24 where, you know, market can see that bounce happening.
00:36:27 So in order to play for the day,
00:36:29 I believe that 21,800 straddle, you know,
00:36:32 where you buy the call and the put both,
00:36:36 and that sums up to an amount of around 200 rupees.
00:36:39 You keep a stop loss of 150,
00:36:41 and any one side of sharp movement that can happen today,
00:36:45 or, you know, a couple of days which we're expecting,
00:36:48 you will make money.
00:36:49 So that is one strategy to play out for Nifty.
00:36:52 Talking about Bank Nifty, in Bank Nifty also,
00:36:54 we see very aggressive, you know, call writers
00:36:56 and put writers, you know, all over,
00:36:58 scattered throughout the option chain,
00:37:00 with 51,500 on weekly expiry showing a lot of traction,
00:37:05 with 47,000 on the downside.
00:37:07 If you look at the --
00:37:08 If you look at a very narrow range also,
00:37:10 we see that 48,000 put writers are very active,
00:37:13 so which means that this decline towards 48,000 will hold up,
00:37:17 and you might see a bounce back towards 48,700 as well.
00:37:21 Okay, Shilpa. So let's talk about stocks then.
00:37:23 And right at the top, you have Zyrus Life.
00:37:25 We've seen some strength yesterday as well.
00:37:26 Can you take us through your call here?
00:37:28 Yeah, I have a buy on Zyrus Life.
00:37:30 We saw very aggressive OI additions to the markup,
00:37:33 to the tune of 14% yesterday.
00:37:36 And this stock now just, you know,
00:37:39 trade above 700 and sustenance above that,
00:37:42 we'll see a very sharp up move towards 725 to 730.
00:37:45 So buying 720 call option here at around 21 to 24 rupees
00:37:50 in between this range, with a stop-loss of 17,
00:37:53 you can see targets of 33 to 39 coming in.
00:37:56 The other one would be a sell call,
00:37:59 but, you know, playing through options is safe.
00:38:01 So Ayesha Motors is something I'm looking at
00:38:03 where we see a lot of weakness happening.
00:38:06 So 4,000 put for Ayesha Motors, you know,
00:38:09 is a very good buy right now.
00:38:11 It is trading at around 100 and 105 odd points right now.
00:38:16 So with a stop-loss of 80 from here,
00:38:18 look at for targets of 147 to 160.
00:38:21 I have two questions.
00:38:23 Firstly, is that the likes of something like a Zyrus,
00:38:26 the options, you know, universe is not very liquid,
00:38:30 which means that there is a potential chance for you
00:38:34 to maybe get stuck in a certain position
00:38:37 or you may not necessarily have the required premium
00:38:41 that you want to make an exit on.
00:38:44 Maybe Ayesha Motors is a little more liquid,
00:38:46 but not very liquid.
00:38:47 My question really is that why are you buying options
00:38:51 on a naked basis and not perhaps initiating debit spreads
00:38:55 or credit spreads for that matter in this case?
00:38:58 In this case, what happens, you know,
00:39:00 we, when you generally cater to a large mass
00:39:03 of the investors here, participants,
00:39:06 we don't have people, you know,
00:39:07 where they understand how to adjust a strike price
00:39:10 when you go for debit spreads or, you know,
00:39:13 any sort of option strategies, any ups and downs.
00:39:15 If they don't understand how to adjust,
00:39:18 it becomes difficult for them to manage.
00:39:20 So I believe, you know, catering also to those retail investors
00:39:24 who are, you know, small pocket size and they understand
00:39:27 and they can adhere and listen to the stop-loss levels
00:39:30 and, you know, follow that.
00:39:32 There are chances more that, you know,
00:39:34 they would survive this market and be ready,
00:39:37 you know, to take on their trades as and when it happens.
00:39:41 Sure. And of course, the other question here is,
00:39:44 Shilpa, that for all the sophisticated,
00:39:48 you know, viewers out there, if you were to go ahead
00:39:50 and suggest a spread, what would it be on both of them?
00:39:54 For me, you know, buying 720 call option
00:39:57 and, you know, selling 750 call option,
00:40:00 you know, spreading out on a bull call spread from here,
00:40:03 that will also suffice.
00:40:04 You will get a inflow, you know, very restricted inflow
00:40:08 and, you know, the loss is also limited to a particular amount.
00:40:12 So that would be one strategy, you know,
00:40:14 if you want to practice for Zyder's Life.
00:40:16 Buy 720 call option and sell 750 call option.
00:40:20 We must remember that if you do, in fact,
00:40:23 deploy a debit spread in this case,
00:40:25 because you're going ahead and buying an out-of-the-money call
00:40:28 and then selling of even a further out-of-the-money call,
00:40:31 well, your risk to reward ratio becomes very, very agreeable.
00:40:36 Well, we will need to have the details on that one,
00:40:38 but I reckon at this point in time,
00:40:40 it could be anywhere between one rupee of risk
00:40:43 to about three to four rupees of reward,
00:40:45 which is always, well, preferable.
00:40:47 And, of course, it gives you a little bit of an advantage
00:40:49 when it comes to convexity as well.
00:40:51 And that perhaps is a difference
00:40:52 as far as this specific strategy is concerned
00:40:55 as compared to perhaps going ahead and buying a future.
00:40:58 Remember that future, while it does have unlimited gains,
00:41:01 it also has unlimited profits.
00:41:03 Shilpa, is my assessment correct in this case?
00:41:06 Absolutely. I was just looking at the option prices,
00:41:08 720 trading at around 21, 22 rupees
00:41:11 and 750 trading at around eight rupees.
00:41:14 So the risk is around 14 rupees from here
00:41:16 and you have an upside of more than 17 to 18 rupees.
00:41:20 So the risk report is very well played out.
00:41:22 And the point of practicing further strategies
00:41:24 for only people who understand how to manage the strikes
00:41:28 if in case the situation goes haywire.
00:41:30 You are very restricted to the amount of maximum loss
00:41:35 you would make.
00:41:36 It also happens when you buy naked call options,
00:41:39 but if you maintain the stop loss,
00:41:41 that is well good enough for you.
00:41:42 But in this case, what happens,
00:41:44 you also buy a little more time for yourself.
00:41:46 Because option trading, your enemy is your time.
00:41:50 So if you're practicing bull call spreads, what happens,
00:41:52 you are giving yourself a little more edge on the theta
00:41:56 that even if your view is not going correct
00:41:58 in on a couple of days,
00:42:00 you have that window open to even make profits
00:42:04 wherein the selling of options
00:42:06 which you make at the other strike
00:42:09 and when the time theta decays,
00:42:11 the premium erosion is the gains that you make.
00:42:14 So there are various ways to see option trades
00:42:17 and it is like we recommend everyone,
00:42:21 it is completely up to an individual
00:42:23 to understand how they want to practice.
00:42:25 Right, right, right.
00:42:26 Well, Shilpa, thank you so much for joining us
00:42:28 and taking us through the many ideas that you have
00:42:31 based on this couple of threads.
00:42:33 Thanks so much for joining in.
00:42:35 And with that, it's back to you, Samina.
00:42:37 Thanks for that, Agam.
00:42:38 Those are two F&O strategies coming in on Zydus
00:42:41 and Ayesha Motors.
00:42:42 And we'll keep it with the auto pack
00:42:43 because that is going to be the talking point
00:42:46 for most of today in terms of December auto sales.
00:42:49 Maruti as well, remember, reported auto sales for December
00:42:53 which were about 1.3% lower in the month.
00:42:57 We caught up with Shashank Shrivastava
00:42:59 on his outlook for the auto sector
00:43:02 and factors that might have impacted the industry
00:43:05 or will impact the industry rather going into 2024.
00:43:08 Let's listen in.
00:43:10 Generally speaking, the auto industry growth
00:43:12 is very closely related to the GDP growth,
00:43:16 the per capita GDP growth.
00:43:18 And there the projection so far is about 6.5%
00:43:22 or thereabouts.
00:43:23 And that's very positive because there
00:43:24 is a very high correlation between the auto industry
00:43:28 growth.
00:43:28 In fact, correlation, statistically speaking,
00:43:31 the R-square factor is about 0.983,
00:43:34 which is a pretty high correlation.
00:43:36 So anything which negatively affects the overall economy
00:43:38 growth would affect the auto industry growth as well.
00:43:43 Of course, auto loan rates, if they were to go up,
00:43:46 will also adversely affect because 80% of the retails
00:43:50 in the industry happens through the auto loans.
00:43:54 And therefore, any interest rate hikes there
00:43:57 would be negative for the industry.
00:44:00 Also, the fuel prices can go either way.
00:44:03 Because of the geopolitical situation,
00:44:05 it's possible that you could see spikes upward
00:44:08 for the fuel prices.
00:44:09 Or if everything happens OK, you could even
00:44:12 see a lower demand if overall demand for energy
00:44:15 comes down, depending on the economic growth
00:44:18 in other countries.
00:44:19 There are many factors which can affect.
00:44:21 The commodity prices is the other big thing.
00:44:23 It's a big cost.
00:44:24 Material cost is about 75%, 77% of the overall cost
00:44:28 of any auto EM.
00:44:29 And any changes in the commodity prices,
00:44:32 which will reflect in material cost changes,
00:44:35 would obviously also affect the industry.
00:44:37 So there are many factors.
00:44:39 And I think we continue to make estimates of which way
00:44:44 and take positions on which way things will move.
00:44:47 And right now, it does appear that things are positive.
00:44:50 And we can expect positive growth.
00:44:51 Only thing is that this high level of volumes, which
00:44:54 we have already achieved, you would
00:44:57 expect the growth to be muted, and in my opinion,
00:45:01 a single digit.
00:45:03 Well, Autoz, it is.
00:45:04 And let's start off the conversation this morning
00:45:07 with that, with Saurabh Jain.
00:45:08 He's equity head of research at SMC Global Securities,
00:45:12 joins us on the show.
00:45:13 Saurabh, good having you.
00:45:14 Thanks so much for taking the time out.
00:45:15 Neeraj here, good morning.
00:45:16 Can I start off with that, Saurabh?
00:45:18 By the way, actually just very quickly,
00:45:20 did the last 30, 45 minutes of a small down tick yesterday
00:45:25 become a big talking point in your equity house as well?
00:45:28 Was it part for the course?
00:45:30 Good morning, Neeraj.
00:45:31 Happy New Year.
00:45:32 I don't think someone has to look at it that way,
00:45:34 because everybody does know that there is a low volume
00:45:38 happening in the markets.
00:45:39 A lot of markets were closed yesterday.
00:45:41 There was lower participation.
00:45:42 And a bit of selling results into a good fall.
00:45:47 So I don't think it really matters.
00:45:51 OK, fair point.
00:45:52 So hence, let's move to autos, because that's
00:45:54 what we were talking about.
00:45:55 I'd love to understand from you, what
00:45:57 did you make of the news flow around auto sales
00:45:59 numbers or cement dispatch numbers
00:46:01 as they have come out over the last 24 odd hours, Saurabh?
00:46:07 If you look at the auto numbers, what we are seeing
00:46:09 is that there is a demand for the premium vehicles,
00:46:12 be it four wheelers, be it bikes, or anything.
00:46:14 Anything above 125cc is getting good traction.
00:46:17 SUVs are getting good traction.
00:46:19 In the last five, 10 years, you must
00:46:21 have seen that the share of the SUV has risen a lot.
00:46:24 So that is what we are witnessing.
00:46:26 I'll bet the volumes are lower than the expectation.
00:46:29 But companies like Maruti, Mahindra
00:46:31 are making good roads in the premium segment,
00:46:34 and even are expected to come out with the newer variants,
00:46:38 which will actually help them to gain further market share
00:46:42 and enhance volume in 2024.
00:46:45 So, Havitha, Srikant, Johan, who will be joining us
00:46:49 in a few more minutes.
00:46:51 But I want to continue talking to you about what
00:46:54 happened in the markets yesterday.
00:46:56 We saw very small sectors--
00:46:58 actually, I should stop calling it small sectors--
00:47:00 but sectors where we've seen sector rotation take place.
00:47:03 So one such space that saw an aggressive sort of buying
00:47:07 through the day was the fertilizer pack,
00:47:09 from a FACT and RCF to GCFC.
00:47:12 All those counters have gone home with gains of 4% to 10%
00:47:15 each.
00:47:16 In the fertilizer pack, is there something
00:47:18 you've heard or you know that could sort of indicate
00:47:21 that these are stocks you might want to pick up,
00:47:23 or investors or traders could sort of buy?
00:47:27 See, the fertilizer sector has been
00:47:30 running because of the expectation
00:47:31 that the government would continue
00:47:33 to boost the agrarian economy, and the key beneficiary
00:47:36 will be fertilizer.
00:47:37 Among the fertilizer, we like a company like GSFC,
00:47:41 which gained yesterday in the trade--
00:47:43 last day, approximately 13%.
00:47:49 If you look at the numbers, the numbers are good.
00:47:51 Even the management is quite confident.
00:47:52 They have some different side of--
00:47:55 apart from the fertilizer, they have some chemical business,
00:47:58 which is growing at a good pace.
00:47:59 Apart from this, the company is also making inroads
00:48:01 in the hydrogen space also.
00:48:03 So this is the company we continue to like.
00:48:07 OK.
00:48:10 Let's welcome in Mahantesh Sabbarad as well.
00:48:12 InnoVent expert joins us right now with his thoughts too.
00:48:15 Mahantesh, thanks for joining in, and a happy new year.
00:48:18 We are just talking to Saurabh about autos.
00:48:21 Arun, you look at that space very, very closely.
00:48:23 I'd love to start off by understanding
00:48:26 what you thought of the numbers as they came out.
00:48:30 More importantly, it's a sector that
00:48:33 has given some fairly strong returns the last two
00:48:36 or three years.
00:48:38 Is there more in store here?
00:48:40 Good morning, and happy new year to all your viewers,
00:48:43 including you.
00:48:44 Thank you.
00:48:45 As far as automobiles is a concern,
00:48:47 I think this is a sector which still grows steadily.
00:48:49 And you did mention about the sector giving returns
00:48:53 for the past few years has been quite good,
00:48:56 simply because it has outgrown the low of the COVID period.
00:49:02 Now we have a situation for automobiles
00:49:04 which has got favorable tailwinds.
00:49:06 You have got interest rates now set to either fall or stay
00:49:10 steady.
00:49:10 That's one important tailwind for the auto sector.
00:49:14 Overall, transition to EV side has been slow.
00:49:19 So that's a bit of a headwind, I would say,
00:49:21 for the automobile company.
00:49:23 But the favorable tailwind within the EV sector
00:49:26 is that most of the companies, after the initial reluctance,
00:49:31 are upping their plans in terms of introducing
00:49:34 more and more electric vehicles.
00:49:36 We have seen one trend, which is that most of the passenger
00:49:39 vehicle manufacturers have done away with the diesel model
00:49:42 per se.
00:49:43 And that's a big pointer to the fact
00:49:45 that they will soon move or refresh their portfolio ahead.
00:49:48 From a buyer's perspective, the important tailwind
00:49:52 that you want to get is now the choices are a little better.
00:49:56 You have a new player like Citro coming in, just
00:49:58 as an example.
00:50:00 And you have a substantially good portfolio
00:50:03 coming from the likes of the traditional manufacturers
00:50:06 of Mahindra or Tata Motors, who either used to typically have
00:50:11 just two, three models within their basket of passenger
00:50:15 vehicles.
00:50:15 Now they have more choices available for customers.
00:50:18 So that's a favorable tailwind that is coming in.
00:50:21 And finally, SUVs are growing.
00:50:24 I think that's an important trend that has been holding on
00:50:29 for several years now.
00:50:32 Mandesh, you, of course, like Neeraj said,
00:50:34 have been very passionate about the auto sector
00:50:36 and have tracked it for so many years.
00:50:38 Let's break this down, right?
00:50:39 We did catch up a year about what a few managements have
00:50:43 indicated.
00:50:43 And they've all said that this month is soft,
00:50:47 but it's met internal expectations.
00:50:49 Of course, we're also coming out of a season, which
00:50:51 was a festival season, which saw robust growth
00:50:54 across the board.
00:50:55 So there's a little bit of high base that's playing out.
00:50:57 If I had to ask you in terms of making your picks for the auto
00:51:01 pack, because we've also seen some profit-taking yesterday,
00:51:03 which auto stocks would you initiate in your portfolio
00:51:07 at this stage on back of the numbers that we're seeing
00:51:09 and will see in the next couple of quarters?
00:51:12 If that's the hypothetical question
00:51:16 that we look forward to in terms of which automobile
00:51:18 companies are likely to do better,
00:51:20 and with the backdrop of the stock performance
00:51:23 that they have delivered for the past year or two,
00:51:26 then I would definitely pick Maruti
00:51:29 among all the automobile packs, simply
00:51:32 because there is a lot more to grow ahead for Maruti
00:51:35 relative to the others.
00:51:37 Either a Tata Motor has caught up
00:51:39 in terms of valuation, the valuation expectations
00:51:42 have become too high, or you have a situation
00:51:45 where the growth will not be so strong as before
00:51:49 because of the base effect.
00:51:50 That's the case of Mahindra.
00:51:52 So Maruti is something that therefore
00:51:55 has a combination of both, a good growth factor
00:51:59 to look forward to, and valuation catch-up
00:52:02 is required as far as Maruti is concerned.
00:52:05 Now, when it comes to two-wheelers,
00:52:07 they have been steady performance.
00:52:08 In fact, a lot of underperformance
00:52:09 of the two-wheeler companies, both in terms of sales
00:52:12 delivery as well as in terms of actually stock market
00:52:16 performance, is now a thing of the past,
00:52:21 and they have better outlook ahead.
00:52:23 So like I said, so if this being the hypothetical question
00:52:29 on what's likely to be a good year ahead,
00:52:31 it would be relatively better for a Maruti.
00:52:35 Srikanth Chauhan as well joins in with a technical view
00:52:38 on the markets.
00:52:39 Srikanth, I will talk to you about the Nifty and Bank Nifty
00:52:42 in a minute, but because we are part of this auto conversation,
00:52:44 you want to jump in with your trades on the auto pack,
00:52:47 Bajaj Auto, Maruti, Aisha, TVS.
00:52:50 All these stocks saw some profit-taking in trade yesterday.
00:52:54 How would you trade the auto pack this morning?
00:52:58 Yeah, good morning, everyone.
00:53:00 See, I think the way there is activity in almost all
00:53:05 the auto companies, Bajaj Auto is really doing well.
00:53:07 It is forming higher tops, higher bottoms,
00:53:10 and whenever there is any distribution sort of formation,
00:53:13 it crosses to that.
00:53:14 So I feel if there is any correction,
00:53:16 then certainly we should look for adding Bajaj Auto
00:53:19 to the positional portfolio because there we are expecting
00:53:23 stock to move towards 7,000, 7,500.
00:53:26 No doubt that there is like a valuation gap
00:53:29 because the fair value and the current price is far, far away.
00:53:32 But based on the trend following method,
00:53:36 I think we should look for adding position
00:53:38 if there is any correction in the stock close to 6,000 levels.
00:53:40 But yes, we like Tata Motors as well as Mahindra and Mahindra.
00:53:44 The reason is because the stock, Tata Motors,
00:53:47 has crossed its all-time highest level after a very long time.
00:53:51 It has spent a lot of time below the levels of 500.
00:53:55 And after crossing these levels,
00:53:56 the next level to watch out for will be close to 1,000.
00:53:59 So based on technicals,
00:54:01 I think the stock is heading towards that 1,000 levels.
00:54:04 And currently it is around 800, 820,
00:54:06 but 750 is going to act as major support for it.
00:54:09 So if there is any correction,
00:54:11 because after most of the time, monthly numbers,
00:54:14 we see some correction in auto companies.
00:54:16 So in case if there is any correction,
00:54:18 then close to 750,
00:54:19 we should look for adding Tata Motors as well as we like Mahindra and Mahindra,
00:54:23 which is around some 1,700 levels.
00:54:26 There also we feel that it is finally heading for the levels of 2,000.
00:54:30 But in the correction, close to 1,650,
00:54:33 the stock is having excellent support.
00:54:34 So buy on dips should be the strategy for buying stocks like Bajaj Auto,
00:54:38 Tata Motors, as well as Mahindra and Mahindra.
00:54:40 M&M, Bajaj Auto and Tata Motors, buy on dips.
00:54:44 That's the strategy coming in on a technical angle.
00:54:46 And of course, fundamentally, stocks like Maruti is what you want to keep on your radar.
00:54:51 We'll slip into a break.
00:54:52 We're expected to open on a flat to slightly positive note.
00:54:55 We'll take a break, but there's a lot more on the other side.
00:54:57 So stay with us as we gear up for pre-open trade.
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00:56:20 Back with India market open, three minutes left for the session to start.
00:56:36 And our guests are with us.
00:56:38 Niranjan, can I request you to give us your stock recommendations for the day?
00:56:42 You've spoken about autos, but beyond autos, what are the stocks that you're recommending this morning?
00:56:48 Yeah, good morning, Neeraj.
00:56:50 See, I think technology stocks have again regained from their immediate lows.
00:56:59 Most of the auto companies, most of the IT companies recovered and they close above their important pivot levels.
00:57:06 The important levels which they have crossed are clearly indicating us that we are going to see further more activity in the near term.
00:57:14 Specifically, we pro which is around some 475, 480.
00:57:18 There we are seeing further more activity in the near term, at least 500, 495 should be the level where the stock should come in the near term.
00:57:27 We can keep stop loss at 470 for the same.
00:57:30 And we also like few metals and mining companies in that specifically GMDC is really doing well.
00:57:36 NMDC is already into breakout.
00:57:38 It is very close to its important resistance level of 220.
00:57:41 But GMDC has now again started its up move after consolidating within the range of 400, 420.
00:57:48 So the next level to watch out for will be 450, 465.
00:57:52 So at current levels, GMDC is also a buy with a stop loss at 425.
00:57:56 So GMDC as well as Wipro should be on the watch list in today's day.
00:58:00 Right, GMDC and Wipro should be on the buy list.
00:58:03 Mantesh, I'll come to you very quickly on auto ancillary.
00:58:07 We've still got a minute to go as we gear up a pre-open.
00:58:10 What is happening in the auto ancillary pack?
00:58:13 That space did see some buying in yesterday's trade.
00:58:15 Is that the EV excitement?
00:58:17 What is really the theme that's playing out for auto ancillary?
00:58:21 It's not just the EV excitement.
00:58:23 I think the auto ancillaries have traditionally geared up to what the OEs wanted.
00:58:29 Plus, now you have a situation where the exports from auto ancillary companies are likely to go ahead
00:58:36 because Indian auto ancillary companies are becoming the preferred choices of many of the global brands
00:58:43 with China's influence slightly waning.
00:58:48 That being the case, you would typically look for auto ancillaries that have not just an export presence
00:58:55 but also a global presence in terms of overall plants and manufacturing capabilities.
00:59:01 Plus, there is this EV transition that you talked of.
00:59:04 Now, while the EV transition happens, there are certain auto cluster of auto ancillaries
00:59:10 who are at a disadvantage relative to the other set of auto ancillaries who stand to gain
00:59:17 because of the introduction of the EV.
00:59:20 Obviously, you have the engine, the prime mover side of the auto ancillaries, slightly suffering.
00:59:27 But overall, on the body side, trim side, interiors, or even from a transmission perspective,
00:59:34 many of the auto ancillaries should typically be protected.
00:59:38 Particularly, there is a change in terms of development activities or I'll not call it research per se
00:59:47 but development activities in terms of newer products that auto ancillaries are bringing in.
00:59:52 And those kinds of transformations for auto ancillaries are notably worthy.
00:59:59 For example, batteries. Batteries is a side which will, for many of the auto ancillary battery suppliers,
01:00:06 will be a transformative kind of development ahead.
01:00:10 Similarly, you have such companies as on the axle side or transmission side
01:00:17 who will have to readapt their components for the EV space.
01:00:22 And of course, the trims, which means that overall connectivity within the car is going to go up substantially.
01:00:29 And there are newer and newer companies that are coming up with connectivity kind of solutions
01:00:34 which were not there earlier, a decade back or so.
01:00:39 So, there's an exciting development that's likely to happen there.
01:00:42 And many of the traditional auto ancillaries are also wanting to get into that connectivity kind of space.
01:00:47 So, yes, the development seems to be a positive development ahead.
01:00:52 Irrespective of that, we should not forget that the EV development is limited only to the passenger vehicle side as of now.
01:00:59 The two-wheelers did pick up, but then the penetration is not growing substantially.
01:01:04 I think the customer adoption of the electric bikes within India is a little tepid to what one would have expected it to be.
01:01:14 That said, coming back to the EV presence only in passenger vehicles,
01:01:19 the point that I'm trying to make is that commercial vehicles is a separate game altogether for auto ancillaries.
01:01:27 And there is quite a bit of growth likely to happen, given that the infrastructure push that is coming up from the government side
01:01:35 would see that most of the commercial vehicles will become better than auto ancillaries.
01:01:39 Therefore, we'll have a more value-add possibility ahead.
01:01:44 Okay. So, Mahinta, sorry, quick 30 seconds. What are the ancillaries to watch out for then?
01:01:50 Quick 30-second answer in the commercial ancillary space.
01:01:53 I think the commercial ancillary space, you have to look for those which are into the transmission side,
01:02:00 because transmissions are becoming bigger in terms of size, in terms of deliverability, I think.
01:02:07 There are traditional auto ancillary companies in the metalworking on the transmission side who typically do better.
01:02:14 Sorry, I'm not asking you to give recommendations, but what are these companies?
01:02:18 Bharat Forge is a big player in the transmission side, right?
01:02:23 They make the traditional forged kind of components.
01:02:27 So, you will have these kinds of companies who will do well.
01:02:31 They will require larger forgings, and not only that, you will require forgings that will go into a connected space.
01:02:38 Transmissions will have to be in the connected space even for a commercial vehicle.
01:02:43 So, you will have even a mother's-in-suit, for example, likely to be present there.
01:02:49 So, these traditional big auto ancillaries will have better days ahead for the commercial vehicles,
01:02:55 where there will be a possibility of more value additions on the transmission side.
01:03:02 Got it. Okay. Now, before I come to Saurabh, I would want to get in my colleague Anushi Hoojhonson
01:03:08 with the key stocks to watch, at least some of them in the session today. Anushi, good morning.
01:03:13 Morning, Meeraj. So, I have four key stocks where some business updates came out.
01:03:18 So, I'll start off with Coal India first. So, Coal India's production data came out for December,
01:03:22 wherein they have reported about 8.2 percent year-round year growth to 71.9 million tons,
01:03:28 while its coal offtake was up about 6 percent to 66.6 million tons.
01:03:33 Now, if you look at the nine-month FY23 figures, it showed about 11 percent year-round year upside,
01:03:39 the production, and the offtake was about 9 percent up.
01:03:43 Now, coming to JTL, JTL has recorded its highest ever quarterly sales volume at 1 lakh million tons,
01:03:50 which is up 76 percent year-round year, while looking at its nine-month FY24 figures, that is about 62 percent up.
01:03:57 So, this demand is mainly coming from the structural steel tubes and pipes,
01:04:01 and they are seeing a healthy demand across both the global and domestic sectors.
01:04:05 Apart from that, the company is also now focused on its capacity expansion with an investment of up to Rs. 1,300 crore,
01:04:13 with the promoter group investing 540 crore out of it.
01:04:17 Then we have APL Apollo, which Q3 sales volume stood at about 6.03 lakh tons,
01:04:23 which is down about 11 percent on a quarter basis, but was flat on a year-on-year basis.
01:04:29 So, in this, the contribution from the value-added segment stood up about 59 percent year-on-year.
01:04:35 Now, lastly, there is Ultratech Cement, which came out with its Q2-3 domestic sales volume at about 26.06 million tons,
01:04:44 showcasing about 5 percent year-on-year growth and about 2 percent quarterly growth.
01:04:49 If you look at the overall consolidated sales volume, considering the overseas grey cement volume as well,
01:04:56 that is about 27.3 million tons, which showed again a 6 percent year-on-year upside and about 2 percent QOQ upside.
01:05:05 So, with this, now the company's consolidated capacity stands at 138 million tons per annum.
01:05:11 So, these are the four key stocks to watch out for today.
01:05:14 Right, Anushi. It's going to be a busy morning, lots of counters that will be in focus.
01:05:18 And I'll take a cue from Anushi on numbers that we've highlighted.
01:05:22 APL-Apollo numbers were a disappointment. They've declined again in the December month by about 11.0 percent.
01:05:28 JTL, on the other hand, has had fantastic reporting for December.
01:05:32 Saurabh, you track the space. How do you explain this very opposing sort of number reporting between APL and JTL?
01:05:42 Same sector, but one looks so promising and the other one comes in as a huge disappointment, which is APL.
01:05:47 And also, with, I mean, Neeraj mentioned this way, so the valuations look so stretched for APL,
01:05:52 they have to keep month on month delivering. That's a huge task.
01:05:56 So, rather absurd in that regard. How would you approach the sector and would you buy either of the counters I just mentioned?
01:06:03 See, first of all, we don't have recommendation on any of the two.
01:06:06 If you look at the valuations, the valuations have skyrocketed like anything in the last one year.
01:06:11 If you look at the last few months, the stock hasn't performed. I'm talking about the APL-Apollo.
01:06:15 If you look at the numbers, the numbers are not coming in line with the valuation that company is spreading.
01:06:20 You know, it is spreading close to 14 times to book value and the numbers they have just announced.
01:06:25 I mean, degrowth, this isn't the market is looking for.
01:06:29 So, I expect some kind of, you know, deceleration and, you know, cooling off in the valuations of the stock.
01:06:36 Shrikant, you want to come in on fertilizer stocks, any of them that you'd buy this morning after a sharp rally we saw yesterday?
01:06:48 Yeah, I think most of these stocks are like really doing well and they are also coming out of their important resistance level.
01:06:56 But in that specifically, RCAF looks really good, which was underperforming, which was below the levels of 160 for a longer time.
01:07:04 Now it is getting higher. So, the next level to watch out for could be around 180, 190 for the same.
01:07:10 And maybe in the best case scenario, we may even see the levels of 200.
01:07:14 But national fertilizer is also something which is like really showing a lot of strength.
01:07:22 It is forming some double bottom sort of formation. And after crossing the level of 90, now the next level to watch out for would be 140, 145.
01:07:30 Because the stock has spent a lot of time below the levels of 90 to 20, 22 on the downside, almost 10, 12 years.
01:07:39 So, crossing this level is like something significant for the stock.
01:07:43 And based on the overall formation and the way there is broader base activity in the entire sector, I think this stock should do well in the medium to long term.
01:07:53 So, in case if there is any correction, we should look for adding national fertilizer to the position in portfolio.
01:07:59 But with the trading perspective, I think we should look for focusing more and more on RCF as well as Shambhal fertilizer.
01:08:05 Right. Mantesh, I want to pick up this stock with you and I don't know if you track it.
01:08:10 JDM Auto, very sharp rally in trade yesterday. There were a few news triggers that came through as well.
01:08:17 But the stock was up 14% to hit a one-year high.
01:08:20 I believe the exchanges are seeking clarification on the E-Business Delivery Report.
01:08:26 But do you track this one at all?
01:08:29 Not really. JVM is a very old auto ancillary company grown on the back of Maruti kind of ancillary.
01:08:40 And I believe every auto component company or auto ancillary will be announcing some or other diversification into the electric vehicle kind of side.
01:08:52 Like I did mention about the batteries, I did mention about when bearing companies are looking at transforming into the EV space going ahead.
01:09:01 Because in the transmission side, your gearbox will get soon replaced by what is called as a transfer case.
01:09:08 And you'll have additional bearings coming with the hub side as well.
01:09:12 So, all these developments related to EV side diversification are likely to happen.
01:09:18 And therefore, wouldn't really track it as of now until the development is really concrete.
01:09:26 Okay. Now, some more individual stocks to focus on.
01:09:31 Samina, we were talking about this arbitrage between Inox Wind Energy and Inox Wind.
01:09:35 Now, just pull up the pre-open prices there.
01:09:37 Yesterday, both Inox Wind and Inox Wind Energy were up 5%.
01:09:40 Today, Inox Wind Energy is up 5%.
01:09:42 Inox Wind is flat.
01:09:44 But largely, just the kind of gains that some of these stocks have seen have been stupendous.
01:09:49 Saurabh, do you have coverage on the wind turbine companies, Inox and Suzlon?
01:09:55 Not really, Pran.
01:09:57 Okay. Shrikant, would you look at the charts maybe and tell us if you like a Suzlon or an Inox Wind or Inox Wind Energy?
01:10:04 Yeah, I think, Srikant, in that, Inox Wind is definitely having a lot of strength in terms of its technical pattern.
01:10:15 No doubt that we have seen a spectacular rally from the lows of $180 to almost $525-$530 without any correction.
01:10:23 So, in case if there is any correction, then I think close to $500 or maybe $490, the stock will again regain some strength.
01:10:30 But it is now very close to, I would say it has already broken its listing price.
01:10:35 So, whenever the stock crosses its listing price, which was around some 500 levels in the year 2015,
01:10:43 so, Neeraj, crossing this level is a significant event for the stock.
01:10:48 And the strategy should be to buy or maybe I can say that something is really happening positive for the stock.
01:10:54 And that's the reason the stock has crossed this level.
01:10:57 So, in case if there is any correction, then certainly we should look for adding this stock.
01:11:01 But eventually, we are expecting stock to move towards at least $620 or $650.
01:11:06 Saurabh, IT has been seeing some buying again in the last few days.
01:11:11 Earnings season around the corner with TCS reporting on the 11th.
01:11:15 You think this euphoria is going to be justified?
01:11:18 If you had to, would you first, firstly, would you consider buying IT stocks ahead of their earnings season?
01:11:23 And if yes, which ones would those be? And if not, what is the view on the sector then at large?
01:11:29 See, my belief is gradually IT will see traction going in 2024.
01:11:35 So, our advice is gradually build a position in the IT sector.
01:11:39 The first recommendation from our side is HCL Technologies.
01:11:44 If you look at the numbers, the company has gained good traction in the last quarter.
01:11:47 I mean, the deal with Verizon, highest amount of deals signed by the company.
01:11:51 Quarter on quarter, there was a jump in the 100 million, 50 million, 1 million, 10 million basket.
01:11:56 The company is quite confident of the deal pipelines and working towards AI also with their clients.
01:12:02 So, IT and TCS remains our top picks.
01:12:05 Right. That's the view coming in.
01:12:08 Shrikant, what about you technically on the charts?
01:12:11 Would you buy any of these IT stocks, any long trades there?
01:12:14 We've seen buying in the last couple of days in the space.
01:12:17 Yes, in this space, based on technicals, we like Wipro as well as we like Tech Mahindra.
01:12:25 Wipro has crossed its important level around 450, 455.
01:12:31 And below that, it was like consolidating for several months.
01:12:36 So, crossing this level clearly indicates that the stock is heading for the next important level, which is at 500 and 520.
01:12:43 But if the technical pattern goes as per the expectation, then we may even see the levels of 550 in the medium term.
01:12:51 We also like Tech Mahindra because there also we saw a huge amount of underperformance as compared to its peers.
01:12:57 And now the stock is consolidating and it is following some triangle sort of formation.
01:13:02 So, here also we are expecting somewhere close to 1450, 1490 in next maybe few weeks or few months.
01:13:10 So, it will take some time, but it's a time to buy, to accumulate, to add more to the positional portfolio with the final stock loss close to 1200.
01:13:20 Okay, sorry, Shrikant, which was that stock?
01:13:24 Tech Mahindra.
01:13:26 Tech Mahindra and Wipro, watch out for those.
01:13:29 Watch out for Zomato as well.
01:13:30 We haven't discussed that stock today, but they've increased the platform fees from Rs. 3 to Rs. 4 in select markets.
01:13:37 Remember, this is a net addition to the bottom line.
01:13:39 I think CLSA, if I'm not wrong, has increased the price target to Rs. 168 or thereabouts.
01:13:45 So, Zomato is one more stock you need to focus on.
01:13:47 And a stock that again we've not spoken about in detail, but maybe we'll talk about post-market open is Wokhar because of the kind of frantic buying that we saw in the stock in the last few days, particularly yesterday.
01:13:59 So, both of these names is something that we'll discuss with our experts on the other side of market open.
01:14:03 But here's how the markets are starting off.
01:14:05 On a decent footing, I would presume, no, it's flat.
01:14:12 Hardly any move there for the nifty 50.
01:14:15 Bring up the banks, which had a bigger of a pullback yesterday, about a quarter of a percent lower right now.
01:14:21 Let's wait and watch if there is more in store.
01:14:23 Holding that Rs. 48,000 mark.
01:14:25 Mid-cap index, flattish.
01:14:26 Small-cap index would be interesting.
01:14:28 The last few days, it started off with a bang, about a third of a percent.
01:14:31 So, actually not that bad for the small caps, you have to admit.
01:14:34 Nifty IT is the last one that I want to see because yesterday it had a good move.
01:14:38 Let's see if it is more and then let's get the heat map up.
01:14:41 Nope, for now, starting off weak.
01:14:43 Let's get the heat map and show you what's moving on the large caps before I hand it over to Samina for the broader end of the spectrum.
01:14:48 More red than green.
01:14:50 What's moving down?
01:14:51 Ayesha is reacting yet again.
01:14:53 It was down about 2.5% yesterday, down another percent in a quarter.
01:14:57 There is weakness in Ultratech.
01:14:59 The numbers weren't the best.
01:15:00 We spoke about it on the trade setup.
01:15:02 Not necessarily the best.
01:15:04 Brokerages moved their target to FY26, but the monthly numbers left a bit to be desired.
01:15:10 Aside of that, maybe a bit of a weakness in Infi, HCL Tech, etc.
01:15:16 So, tech is not having a good start as the Nifty IT mark showed as well.
01:15:19 But now the greens are slowly starting to widen.
01:15:23 Coal India, monthly dispatch numbers looked okay, 1% higher.
01:15:27 There is strength in Nestle, there is strength in metals, by the way.
01:15:33 I don't know if the dollar index impact continues, but metals are certainly having a good run.
01:15:37 And now the quantum of stocks in the green are moving higher.
01:15:41 It's almost even Stevens.
01:15:43 So, on a good note, let me hand it over to Samina to figure out what's happening at the broader end of the spectrum.
01:15:47 Couple of movers.
01:15:49 So, while the broader markets are largely performing in line with what was expected,
01:15:53 let's quickly take you through a few stocks that we are tracking this morning.
01:15:58 So, pull up APL Apollo.
01:16:00 They've had a little bit of a rough reporting in terms of sale numbers that they've projected for.
01:16:05 So, they reported those slightly below.
01:16:08 They've attributed it to higher steel prices.
01:16:11 And those are the sales numbers for the quarter.
01:16:14 So, the stock is feeling the pressure.
01:16:16 It's down about a percent and a half for APL Apollo.
01:16:19 Contrary to what you're seeing, APL Apollo, the other player from the industry, JTL Infra,
01:16:25 they've reported a stellar sort of numbers, right?
01:16:28 That's the stock.
01:16:29 So, 3.5% higher on back of numbers that have been the best ever historically for the company.
01:16:36 JTL stock does 3.5% gains in trade.
01:16:39 Gensol is a stock you want to pull up on your screen.
01:16:43 The account has been in the news for the last couple of weeks.
01:16:45 This morning, of course, we've got reports that they are looking at fundraising plans.
01:16:49 So, remember, this is still the season of QIPs and IPOs.
01:16:53 Gensol counters up a percent and a half.
01:16:55 300 crores will be coming in.
01:16:57 They will look to improve their balance sheet, improve the debt equity ratio,
01:17:00 and also, of course, use that money to execute the order book that they're currently sitting on.
01:17:05 So, that's Gensol Engineering for you.
01:17:07 Apart from that, auto numbers, that sector will be in focus today.
01:17:11 So, you've got Maruti, M&M, and Bajaj Auto.
01:17:15 You can add to the lesser M&Ms of the world.
01:17:18 Largely in focus, auto counters on back of their numbers.
01:17:23 Numbers of most of the auto players have come in slightly lower than what analysts were expecting.
01:17:27 But, of course, for some of them, it would be nice to understand if it's in line with what the management was expecting.
01:17:32 But auto generally is seeing a weak sort of reporting coming in on the foot of the festive season that has actually come to an end.
01:17:40 So, M&M, TVS, Maruti, Bajaj Auto are all trading fairly soft in trade.
01:17:45 That's largely what it is.
01:17:47 Neeraj, I'm going to toss it back to you.
01:17:49 Auto is soft, but I think most of the other players are trading flat to slightly higher.
01:17:53 Nothing to write home about just yet.
01:17:55 I just wonder if Zomato, and there's this brokerage notes that we spoke about as well.
01:18:01 So, what's happened from Ellara as well as CLSA.
01:18:06 Bring up Zomato, up about 2.45%, really strong show and a good start by this one as well.
01:18:13 Quick opening thoughts, Mahantesh.
01:18:15 I'll start off with Zomato.
01:18:17 These players have seen a fairly choppy time since listing.
01:18:22 The last couple of years, Zomato has really spiked on gains.
01:18:26 From the lows of 40, it's now not seeing any kind of ebbing.
01:18:29 This platform fee increase, deeper penetration, etc.
01:18:33 All of this, does it auger well?
01:18:36 Is it a business that you would want to invest in?
01:18:38 Yeah, definitely.
01:18:39 This is a business where the confidence of all these companies is growing.
01:18:45 And they are able to charge the fees that they want.
01:18:48 You talk to platform fees, there's also in-app advertising.
01:18:52 So, there is a lot that is happening on the company side.
01:18:56 The penetration is now near complete.
01:18:59 It will keep growing organically as we go ahead.
01:19:03 But more importantly, their ability, the confidence that comes from their ability to charge what they want,
01:19:09 is driving the stock prices up.
01:19:11 I think that momentum is not going to remain unarrested at least for 3-4 years,
01:19:17 before you have any strong competition.
01:19:19 As it is, the market now doesn't seem to have any competitive activity coming up as yet.
01:19:26 So, the pricing therefore has become unbridled.
01:19:30 In such a situation, the stock prices should keep seeing higher and higher levels.
01:19:36 Just a quick mention, all cargo logistics, they go X bonus today.
01:19:41 And the stock is looking pretty good, 9.5% high on a day when the Nifty 500 is actually trading flat.
01:19:49 Olympic Pharma, that's the other one, 5% gains.
01:19:52 Lementree, this one has been on the radar too on a few upgrades.
01:19:55 The counter trading well in the green, 4% on Lementree is what we have.
01:19:59 Neeraj just talked about Lupin and we saw very aggressive buying that came in yesterday towards the last hour of trade.
01:20:06 The gains, Neeraj, you want to come on this one?
01:20:08 This is fantastic.
01:20:09 After a pretty good move yesterday, 5-4%…
01:20:12 Strong upgrade.
01:20:13 I don't know how far further away is the target price on this one.
01:20:17 For all you know, with that 10% move in yesterday and today,
01:20:20 you have taken out the target price on Lupin as well.
01:20:23 I'll tell you, since you've raised it up, Nomura's target price is 1593 on Lupin.
01:20:31 We still have a good runway to go.
01:20:33 If Nomura's target is to be believed, yes.
01:20:35 So, about 1500 on Lupin is what Nomura has put out.
01:20:37 JBM Auto, we talked about this as well.
01:20:40 14% high yesterday, new one year high, the stock continues to gain 4.5% today.
01:20:47 JBM Auto, you've talked about, but Pharma is a pack, Neeraj, is looking good.
01:20:50 So, you've got your Lupins, but even Glenmark continues to gain in today's trade.
01:20:54 Fertilizers are also not doing too badly actually, interesting enough.
01:20:58 Saurabh, anything in the Pharma pack, I mean, that upgrade on Lupin has sort of ignited the sector.
01:21:05 Across the board, we are seeing buying this morning, follow on buying after yesterday, last hour of trade.
01:21:11 Anything in the Pharma pack that you're constructive on that one could still add at these levels in their portfolio
01:21:15 if you want exposure to the Pharma pack?
01:21:17 I think the latest one we recommended is Xinjin from the Pharma pack.
01:21:22 Xinjin from…
01:21:23 Yeah, it's looking good and the potential upside is close to 15%.
01:21:28 What's the rationale for that, Saurabh?
01:21:31 See, the company is doing well in the research domain and the pipeline is looking very good.
01:21:37 Okay, great. Saurabh and Mahesh, take a moment to thank both of you for joining in today and giving us your thoughts.
01:21:46 Really appreciate your time today.
01:21:48 Thank you.
01:21:49 Thank you. Shrikant, come to you, opening thoughts, seven minutes into trade, Bank Nifty, Nifty IT, anything that stands out for you?
01:21:58 Yeah, Neeraj, I think the way there was, we saw some activity in Pharma companies, but today, a couple of stocks are really doing well.
01:22:10 They are very close to their important levels.
01:22:12 No doubt that this particular sector is a defensive sector, but most of the stocks, if you see, like Zipla is now very close to its all-time highest levels.
01:22:21 If it crosses 1280 levels, then we can even see the levels of 1400 or 1450, which is the fair value for most of the broking companies.
01:22:29 Also, if we go through with Sun Pharma, they need to be trading above its all-time highs.
01:22:33 Zydus Life is also trading in the lifetime high levels.
01:22:37 So I think this particular sector is definitely going to do well and we should focus more and more on stocks like Lupin, Zydus, Sun Pharma, as well as Zipla.
01:22:46 But from the Bank Nifty, I think it is clearly underperforming. It is going to find some furthermore selling pressure if there is any rally from current levels,
01:22:54 because 48,500 is going to act as major resistance for it.
01:22:58 In case if it falls to 47,000 levels, then I think there the Bank Nifty is having excellent support.
01:23:03 Or at least we need the correction in the market up to 20 days simple moving average, which is around 21,500 for Nifty and 47,500 for the Bank Nifty.
01:23:14 So if we see these levels, then I think the market will start stabilizing.
01:23:18 Otherwise, at higher levels, the risk is there. We are going to see some selling pressure because the way yesterday it has fallen in just 20-25 minutes,
01:23:25 one thing is very clear that someone has taken a lot of, I would say someone has taken good profit in the market.
01:23:34 And maybe that is the reason 21,850 is now going to act as a barrier.
01:23:38 And 21,500 or 400 is the area where we should look for taking some contrabids in the market.
01:23:45 So for the time being, it is more try to focus more on the defensives like IT and pharma companies,
01:23:51 and it is better to stay away from these large cap companies.
01:23:55 Shrikant, you mentioned pharma, a bunch of stocks. I'm inclined to ask you about Wacot Pharma.
01:24:02 It's had a massive run in the recent past. What do the charts say here?
01:24:09 Yeah, it is turning positive after a very long, long time because the stock was consolidating.
01:24:16 It has formed some double bottom sort of formation on a weekly, monthly basis.
01:24:20 The stock is now very close to this 477-480 levels where it was in the year 2021.
01:24:27 But if we see the entire pattern of the stock, then it was around some 2000 levels from there,
01:24:32 all the way the stock has fallen to nearly 150 levels.
01:24:36 But most of the time, all these large cap companies or big size companies,
01:24:41 whenever they fall to their extreme levels, they form some formation like double bottom
01:24:46 or maybe triangle sort of formation. And this particular stock has formed double bottom formation.
01:24:50 Based on line charts, I think the stock has crossed its important level of 450.
01:24:55 So now the next level to watch out for will be 500, 520.
01:24:59 But based on candlesticks or bar charts, still it has to move up to 750, where it will validate to the formation.
01:25:08 So based on the entire formation, volume, price pattern, I think the stock is heading higher.
01:25:14 And any dip from current levels will be an opportunity for traders as well as positional traders to create some long positions.
01:25:21 So 450-440 should act as very good support for it. And 750 is the ultimate target that we are seeing based on technicals.
01:25:29 One stock that's been on the radar on back of business restructuring has been all cargo logistics.
01:25:35 We saw a big run in the last 10 days. I think the counter is up some 40-50%.
01:25:40 Today is well 17% higher, on 15% now. Do you track all cargo logistics, all cargo gati at all?
01:25:47 Yeah, I think all these logistic companies are showing some strength.
01:25:54 They were consolidating and consolidating since last almost one year.
01:26:00 But now after hitting the lows or maybe crucial supports, now again they are rebounding back.
01:26:06 So maybe in the year 2024, we are going to see further more activity in all these logistic companies.
01:26:12 Yes, we also like all cargo logistics, which is currently around after the bonus 94-95.
01:26:19 But I think it is heading higher. It is going to cross its previous high.
01:26:23 We also like Aegis Logistics, which is trading somewhere close to 350-340.
01:26:31 And there also the stock is forming some confident pattern.
01:26:37 So at current levels, certainly it is a buy around 350 because it was around some 400 levels.
01:26:42 All the way now it is corrected back to 350. The stock is having great reservoir ratio.
01:26:48 So it is a buy at current levels with a target of again 400-425 on the higher side.
01:26:53 So we like the logistics. Mahindra Logistics also looks good.
01:26:58 There also we are seeing some rounding bottoms of the form.
01:27:01 Interesting, Shrikant. If not all cargo, we have got Mahindra Logistics and Aegis Logistics that Shrikant is constructive on.
01:27:06 Thank you, Shrikant. Great having you today on the show.
01:27:09 The market like we said is started off on a sort of flat to slightly negative open.
01:27:16 Broader markets though not doing too badly.
01:27:18 Lots of stocks that are moving on the street, which we have highlighted a few of them already.
01:27:23 But pharma is your top gainer. Fertilizers are still seeing some buying.
01:27:26 Stocks like all cargo are turning out to be your top gainers in trade.
01:27:30 APL, Apollo, if I can just quickly pull that up and see if there is a reaction to those quarterly numbers that came in.
01:27:35 The stock remains down 2.5%. Zomato is gaining on a brokerage upgrade.
01:27:40 You have also got JTL that's gaining on back of a pretty solid sales number for the quarter.
01:27:45 But moving focus from micro to little more macro in terms of targets.
01:27:50 The Kiaris kicked off and brokerages are rolling in with their targets on the Nifty.
01:27:55 Citi has come out with a note where it believes that they see the Nifty at levels of 22,500 being taken out by December 2024.
01:28:04 Agam, what does Citi have to say?
01:28:06 What are their thoughts on valuations because the larger topic that we have been discussing is how the broader markets are now looking very frothy.
01:28:13 Yeah. So, this is a Citi strategy note and they are actually talking about what they expect from the markets
01:28:19 and all the areas that they are cautious about and all the areas they would in fact go ahead and place bets.
01:28:25 I am going to start off with their assessment of 2023, which of course was a staggering year
01:28:30 and they have said that a lot of those gains were on account largely because of domestic flows which came through.
01:28:37 Of course, FII's were also a part of that and we had decent earnings as well which continued the momentum on the upside.
01:28:45 At the moment, Citi has set a level as far as the Nifty is concerned by December end of around 22,500.
01:28:52 The thing is it's not very far from current levels. It's just about a 4% upside from current market levels.
01:28:58 And the question is where do we go from here?
01:29:00 So, as far as Citi is concerned, looking ahead, they are keeping a price to earnings ratio of somewhere around 20.5.
01:29:07 They are also expecting its EPS to grow by as much as 14% on a year-on-year basis in FY25 and their estimate for FY24 is 17%.
01:29:18 So, sure, double digit growth for EPS, but based on the 20.5 times the price to earnings,
01:29:25 that is well above the one standard deviation mark if you consider the Nifty price to earnings five-year average.
01:29:32 And that means that only 15% of the times in the past has the Nifty traded at such a premium in the past, at least in the last five years.
01:29:41 The question really is if you are going to be circumspect with respect to the Nifty, what areas are you going to place your bets on?
01:29:49 So, Citi does maintain that continued flows will continue to keep your mid-cap and small-cap indices higher and they will continue to be buoyant.
01:30:00 However, as far as their point of view is concerned, they like the large-cap space more because it offers a better risk-to-reward ratio.
01:30:08 Based on that, what are the sectors they are betting on?
01:30:12 They are overweight when it comes to your PSU banks, something like defense sector, along with industrials as well, and of course, not to forget BFSI.
01:30:21 They are, however, underweight on something like discretionary, IT and metals.
01:30:26 So, circumspect when it comes to IT as well, which is a significant part of the indices.
01:30:32 That said, in terms of some contrarian bets that they are playing for, they do like HDFC Bank, Cipla from the large-cap universe and of course,
01:30:43 some from the relatively smaller names, Devyani International, Indus Towers and Endurance are some of the other bets that they are bullish on.
01:30:50 On the whole, as far as the markets are concerned, they are just posing a question of whether or not in fact, valuations are full at this time.
01:30:59 Agam, thanks for that. That is of course, the strategy note being put out there.
01:31:03 22,500 is what they are looking at as a target for December 2024, still constructive on counters like HDFC Bank and Devyani International.
01:31:13 We will take a break. We will come back. The focus remains on the auto sector.
01:31:17 Bajaj Auto, remember, reported numbers.
01:31:20 Rakesh Sharma joins us to talk about the December sales and the outlook for the company going ahead.
01:31:25 Thanks for watching.

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10:42
Coking Coal Costs To Go Down In Ongoing Quarter, Says JSW Steel | NDTV Profit
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7:20
Adani Acquisition Is 'Win-Win Situation', Says ITD Cementation CFO | NDTV Profit
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7:25
What Are The Key Trends In FMCG Earnings Indicating?
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2:45
Justice Sanjiv Khanna To Be India's Next CJI After Justice Chandrachud
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10:10
Russian Discounts On Crude Oil Imports Declining: Chennai Petroleum MD | NDTV Profit
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13:36
Birlasoft Expects Margins Hit In Q3 Due To Seasonal Impact | NDTV Profit
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11:50
Metro Brands CEO Explains How Tie Up With Nykaa 'Is A Unique One' | NDTV Profit
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6:57
Gurugram's Golf Course Road Is Set For 'Massive Price Action': Godrej Properties CEO | NDTV Profit
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13:13
Amber Enterprises Aims To Double Revenue From Railway Business In Three Years | NDTV Profit
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9:02
KPIT Tech MD Expects Growth To Come From US-Based OEMs | NDTV Profit
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24:55
What's Leading The Cash Buildup In PPFAS Flexi Cap? | All You Need To Know On The Mutual Fund Show
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7:43
Union Bank's Q2 Success: Nitesh Ranjan On Profit Growth & Rising Corporate Demand | Talking Point
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11:08
How Did Key BFSI Players Perform In Q2? Find Out Here | NDTV Profit
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9:02
What's Next For Persistent Systems? CEO Sandeep Kalra Discusses AI Growth & Strategic Plans For FY25
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3:48
Suraj Estate Developers Raise ₹343 Crore For Land Acquisitions | NDTV Profit
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28:00
Modi-Xi Meeting: A New Era For India-China Relations & Global Conflict Resolution? | The Big Story
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