Michigan vs. Alabama: College Football Playoff Semifinal Preview

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00:00 [MUSIC]

00:03 But of course, we start with the first of the two,

00:06 college football playoff semifinals on New Year's Day.

00:10 There is something beautiful about the Rose Bowl on New Year's Day, and

00:14 it even adds to its significance when it decides a spot in the national championship.

00:20 It's number one Michigan, it's number four Alabama, two of the strongest brands and

00:25 the most premier programs in the history of this sport.

00:28 Face off on January 1st in Pasadena under the rolling hills of

00:33 the San Gabriel Mountains.

00:35 Michigan remains a one and a half point favorite, minus 130 on that money line.

00:39 Incremental movement, a couple of cents really, Donnie,

00:42 from where the line opened up on that opening Sunday of December,

00:46 known as Selection Sunday, to where we are now.

00:49 The only real movement we saw, 45 and a half, was the opening over under.

00:53 Now that total stands at 44 and a hook.

00:56 It's gonna be great to watch this game play out because the philosophy is on

00:59 either side, right?

01:00 Alabama with an unbelievably talented athletic quarterback that gets out of

01:04 the pocket, guys that can make plays for him on the outside, versus Michigan that

01:08 goes, you know what, we got beef eaters on that front line.

01:11 We're gonna use double tight end sets, we're gonna use Blake Corman's been

01:13 absolutely on fire in scores every single week to slow this tempo down and

01:18 force you into mistakes.

01:19 I love this.

01:20 It's one of those where you take a look at the second game,

01:21 which we'll get to in a second, where it's like, okay,

01:23 this is gonna be more of the up-tempo, fun, and finesse game.

01:27 Nothing finesse about this game between Michigan and Alabama.

01:31 And I think Michigan, when they're gonna come out, Ben, hey,

01:33 we're gonna surprise Alabama.

01:34 Five wide shot on every play.

01:36 No, you're not.

01:37 Your goal is to have J.J.

01:38 McCarthy throw under 25 passes in this game, and

01:41 that's gonna signal you'll be in this game to win it, which I'm interested to watch.

01:45 But also, some of these games for Alabama where they get damaged on defense on

01:48 the running game has been a lot of a running quarterback.

01:51 You don't have that with Michigan.

01:53 But I think Michigan is battle-tested enough to get in the trenches and

01:57 make this game ugly.

01:58 And this is hard for me because when you're talking about the line of this

02:00 football game, when it opened up pretty much at one and

02:02 a half as a favorite towards Michigan, I said that day,

02:05 I believe this line is gonna close in Alabama favorite.

02:08 Now, we haven't seen that public money come in, and granted,

02:11 as you get over this holiday weekend and right into game day, where people are like,

02:14 that's right, the college football playoffs on today.

02:17 I still think there's a legitimate chance that Alabama overtakes Michigan here as

02:21 the favorite in that game, but I find myself,

02:24 I know I'm gonna have a good game at a Blake Corham.

02:26 Blake Corham's gonna get 20 plus touches in this game,

02:28 which I do think he goes over his rushing prop.

02:31 Does he score a touchdown?

02:32 He scores every game, but

02:33 you're not getting a discount here at the Fanville Sportsbook, Ben.

02:35 That's a minus 200 price, but I find myself just getting back into the early days

02:40 of when I loved football, rooting for the team that was the ground and

02:43 pound against Alabama.

02:44 I'm having a real dilemma right now of who I'm going to take on New Year's Day, Ben.

02:50 >> Donnie, you say you're not getting a discount on Michigan and

02:53 that Blake Corham price to find the end zone.

02:55 If the Wolverines score, and I expect them to score at least once in this football

02:59 game, if they do, Blake Corham is going to be the one to bring that football over

03:04 the pylon and into Paytert.

03:06 He has scored 24 rushing touchdowns this year.

03:08 He has scored multiple rushing scores in five consecutive games for

03:12 the Maize and Blue.

03:13 Throughout the regular season against competition that is not necessarily

03:17 Alabama, his price to find the end zone is at bare minimum minus 800,

03:22 minus 200 then is not a bad price.

03:25 The quarterback comparison in this game is going to be fascinating.

03:28 How much does Michigan lean on JJ McCarthy?

03:32 Because despite Alabama being a much better passing defense than that of

03:36 a rushing defense, I think they're going to say, all right, JJ,

03:40 beat us through the air.

03:42 And McCarthy, frankly, has not done that in the final four games of this season.

03:47 He has not thrown for more than 150 yards in the last four games,

03:50 including the Big Ten Championship against Iowa.

03:54 Now, Jalen Milrow has taken on that quarterback position for Alabama.

03:58 But Donnie, I think the reason the total works a little bit lower right now at 44

04:02 and a half is the idea that Michigan has been so

04:04 tremendous defensively throughout this season.

04:07 Best scoring defense in the country, the only defense in the country that has

04:11 allowed less than ten points per game on average, only nine and

04:14 a half given up by the Wolverines.

04:17 But have they seen the athleticism of Alabama,

04:20 mainly at the quarterback position for Jalen Milrow?

04:23 His rushing yards, prop 32 and a half.

04:25 If Michigan can keep, or if Alabama can keep him upright, and

04:29 that's been a struggle this year, I expect Milrow to have a big game.

04:32 I bet Alabama, as the Moneyline underdog, I like the over in this game.

04:37 And I would keep an eye on Roydale Williams, one of the running backs for

04:40 the Crimson Tide, to go over his rushing yards prop of 24 and a half.

04:44 I agree, Donnie, by the way, that Blake Quorum should go over 78 and

04:47 a half because Michigan is still going to rely on running the football,

04:51 despite Alabama maybe stacking the box.

04:54 It's just the way they orchestrate the offense led by JJ McCarthy.

04:59 And Alabama only allowed 184 passing yards per game this year.

05:03 That's a top 15 passing defense in the country.

05:06 They gave up a buck 24 on the ground.

05:09 There are some matchup advantages for the Wolverines to take advantage of.

05:13 [MUSIC]

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