Year End Market Call And Has The Market Reached A Bottom? Tommy Lackey, Managing Partner at Relativity Capital Advisors

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#1 Morning Stock Show To Get You Ready For The Stock Market Open, PreMarket Gainers, Earnings This Week, Economic Data & More!  Benzinga PreMarket Prep 8:00AM ET- 9:00AM ET BenzingaTV on YouTube  Tommy Lackey, managing partner and portfolio manager at Relativity Capital Advisors, Power-investing.com

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00:00 I want to know that Tommy Lackey crystal ball here because we give a lot of guest props,

00:04 but I mean, you got this right.

00:05 You came on and like, I think it was December or January and said, you saw that we could

00:09 see, you know, a strong first half and you thought maybe a weaker second half, which

00:13 nobody was saying.

00:14 Everybody's like, oh, where are you going in a recession?

00:16 You know, or they were saying, you know, it's just going to go, you know, we're going to

00:19 come back.

00:20 But nobody had this like week first or a strong first half, week, second half, like you had.

00:25 It's a great call there, Tommy.

00:27 Hop into, you know, this overall Merck and what you're seeing here now, like give us,

00:30 you know, your next call as we enter the final couple months of the year.

00:34 Well, I think what you said is exactly right.

00:37 I mean, it's the toughest spot we've seen ourselves in in a while.

00:40 There is a lot of heavy selling.

00:42 There's a lot of ugly charts.

00:43 There's a lot of things like that.

00:45 And as a technician, the last thing I really want to see is ugly charts.

00:47 But at the same time, as y'all know, that's one of the main reasons I followed Brett in

00:52 situations like that, that I follow it more from a standpoint of not really what to follow.

00:57 But when you start getting to the washout levels that are basically the baby with the

01:03 bathwater type analogies that are out there.

01:06 And I do believe that we have a good opportunity that we're getting there based on some good

01:11 technical levels that we've either just breached.

01:13 And again, that's one of the things, the best technicians I've ever learned from and followed

01:18 all that.

01:19 They don't look as much at a hard line as they look at where is it three days later

01:24 and maybe two to 3% from that level.

01:28 Because breaking a line or breaking a particular point on a chart is easy to do.

01:33 Zones are more important and looking more at kind of what the overall backdrop is.

01:38 And I think you're right.

01:39 I think people have gotten really bearish.

01:42 And I think they've had good reason to for the last few weeks.

01:45 I think this has been a good bit more precipitous than I thought it would be, but has been driven

01:49 a lot by TLT and its drop as well, which again, no matter what the Fed does today, which I

01:56 severely doubt they'll raise, it doesn't seem to me that would be a very smart thing to

02:00 do at all right now.

02:02 But at the same time, if they do either way, I think you've been setting up over the last

02:07 week with some improved breath, some improved things under the surface.

02:11 It's really, as they say, it's really been the generals that have been really taken to

02:14 the woodshed this week.

02:17 And those are the ones that are really starting to, yeah, sure, we have the pay calm and that

02:21 kind of stuff.

02:22 But when you start seeing things like Tesla and NVIDIA and some of these guys breaking

02:26 heavy support levels, again, everybody's looking for that to be the start of something huge.

02:31 And a lot of times that's kind of the end of it.

02:35 So what do you think for the last, like we're going into the seasonally strong period for

02:40 the markets, Ryan Dietrich, you know, we've had him on the show, you know, Ryan well,

02:44 and he was saying typically the markets bottom October 27th, October 28th.

02:48 I mean, holy cow, I'm looking at my calendar.

02:51 I'm looking what the market has done since literally three days ago.

02:54 And I'm like, could Ryan Dietrich be right?

02:56 Could he have called it on the day October 27th?

02:59 Could that be the bottom here in this market?

03:01 Well, this is one of the things I love about listening to you all.

03:04 And you were saying it just a minute ago on the Ackman bottom and this bottom and that

03:08 bottom.

03:09 And I know you all are being playful in a lot of ways.

03:10 A little bit.

03:11 But at the same time, again, it's the what's happening for the next week or so around those

03:17 things.

03:18 It's not a day thing.

03:19 And it's the same things like everybody expects when you come off the bottom.

03:22 If I've been saying this bottom is not necessarily good or strong or whatever, because we don't

03:26 have heavy volume.

03:28 You don't have heavy volume off the bottom because people are scared.

03:32 So the idea of saying that and that myth living for my entire career, and I still heard it

03:40 this week.

03:41 Oh, the bottom volume is still terrible.

03:44 And I don't disagree.

03:46 But you don't get volume until people start to buy in, not just physically with money,

03:51 but mentally.

03:52 And we're not there two days in.

03:54 And I think that's something you have to respect.

03:56 I agree with you completely.

03:57 If we do find a seasonal bottom here, I don't know whether it's the bottom or not.

04:02 But I've been talking with you guys for over a decade now about the fact is more information

04:07 out of the balance after a drop than we do out of the drop itself.

04:12 Who engages?

04:14 How much money comes back in?

04:16 Where does that money go from a rotation standpoint?

04:19 Is it defensive or is it more cyclical?

04:22 Those types of things are going to give us a much better answer than what we saw the

04:26 last week and a half as we get to, you know, people talk about the rubber band stretching.

04:31 We may not be there.

04:33 I may be wrong.

04:34 But usually when we get there, our band stretches, you get to a point of reflexivity to where

04:40 even if you do have a precipitous drop for a week or so, that is almost always zeroed

04:46 back out within the next couple of weeks.

04:49 And then the decision is made.

04:51 Are we going to go back up?

04:52 Are we going to keep going down?

04:53 It's usually not that spike that lasts very long.

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