Finding Opportunities In The Market - Raghee Horner, Managing Director of Futures at Simpler Trading - video Dailymotion

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00:00 Hey, excited about new opportunities.

00:03 That's the way I'm gonna address this

00:05 because of course we've got to now a pullback.

00:08 We've been talking about it more being a correction here.

00:11 Is that how you see the market?

00:13 - I look back five to 10 years.

00:16 So when every new month starts,

00:18 these are old habits from my commodity futures trading days.

00:22 You know, you gotta know what corn would do,

00:24 planting, harvesting, you know, all that stuff.

00:27 And while I don't necessarily think S&P and dollar

00:31 and so forth are super sensitive to these seasonals,

00:35 if you look at August, I mean,

00:37 we should take a Dramamine at the end or 10

00:39 at the end of July, because August nature is just one

00:44 that up and down, up and down, it defines a range

00:47 and it chops up like a Ginsu knife.

00:49 So overall, I'm a little bit bullish still

00:53 because we saw that CPI data,

00:55 keep expectations for the Fed not to hike

00:58 at least in September.

01:00 So I'm a little bit bullish, but it's gonna be a rough ride.

01:02 - Yeah, it's just not gonna be as easy

01:04 as maybe the first half was,

01:05 but I still stay in the camp, like I'm not full bearish here.

01:09 I think we just need a correction

01:10 and I've still got a shopping list going.

01:12 And I think as you get down and some of these stocks

01:15 come down to more reasonable valuations here,

01:17 I think you strike, I think you have your shopping list,

01:20 but I don't think it's gonna be like the first half

01:22 where we're up, you know, 30% on the NASDAQ

01:24 and we're just talking another 30% in the second half.

01:26 I mean, stocks just don't go straight up normally.

01:30 - They don't unless, you know, Powell's S&P targets public,

01:33 you know, until he's telling us what that is.

01:36 But I have a hard time, you know,

01:38 so I think correction's a great word, right?

01:40 So mean reversion, correction.

01:42 To me, where is the previous floor?

01:45 Where are volume levels sitting?

01:47 Where folks have already put their bets in?

01:51 You know, I don't know that we see,

01:54 I'm anything cataclysmic.

01:55 I'm not that bearish.

01:56 Am I looking for something down at the 200 exponential

01:59 like we did say September, October of last year,

02:02 even March of this,

02:04 am I looking for anything that quite panic-filled?

02:07 But to your point, shopping, I would love to go shopping.

02:11 - What is on your shopping list here?

02:13 Do you have some stocks on your shopping list

02:15 that you're looking at? - Boring things, yeah.

02:16 Boring things.

02:17 So my shopping list- - What do you got?

02:18 What do you got?

02:19 - I got, I mean, it's super boring.

02:20 It's definitely usually a weekly timeframe

02:23 or a daily, and it's, when can I buy the SPY?

02:27 When can I buy the DIA?

02:28 Where can I jump into healthcare, Staples, Coke, Walmart?

02:33 It's really, really boring.

02:34 I'm not looking for the next up and comer.

02:37 I'm looking for things.

02:39 I remember, you know, guys, we're talking about 2000.

02:41 I remember telling my mom,

02:43 "Mom, I'm gonna put this in your portfolio."

02:46 She let me start managing money very early

02:48 because she saw I had a knack for it.

02:49 So mind you, you know, your kid's telling you,

02:52 "There's this book company."

02:53 And we're talking about 2000.

02:54 Let's start scooping that up.

02:56 Let's start buying things like that.

02:58 And so I look at her portfolio,

03:00 and I think if you take that willingness to wait six months,

03:03 sometimes a year for those moves,

03:06 shopping as you're saying,

03:07 and when everyone else is panicking,

03:09 you're picking up things in Q1 of 2019, Q1 of 2020,

03:13 because your time horizon is not measured in hours

03:16 or days or weeks, but rather years.

03:18 My mom's cost basis in some of these things are ridiculous

03:21 because that's the process that we did.

03:24 So I'm just trying to enact that now.

03:26 It's harder now.

03:27 It's harder now.

03:28 But that 200 on a weekly, that 200 on daily, it's gold.

03:32 It's easy. - Where does that come in?

03:35 So let's just take it.

03:36 And obviously, you know, we've been extended here

03:38 on the 200 Money Mitch Talks,

03:40 but they're moving out just for a while.

03:41 Me and Joel aren't huge fans, but I can respect, you know,

03:43 that you're coming into an area

03:44 where a lot of other traders are looking at it.

03:46 Where does that come in?

03:49 You know, maybe you can show it.

03:50 Can you show your charts?

03:51 - Yeah, oh yeah, I'll show you the, sure.

03:54 I'm looking at the S&P right now, but yeah, let's do it.

03:57 They're kind of loud and crazy.

03:58 So I always hesitate for people to look directly at them.

04:02 You might want to look with your eyes.

04:04 - I know how it is, Raggy.

04:05 I have a little show button where I take off

04:09 all the levels and stuff,

04:11 'cause people just, sometimes they get confused.

04:13 But hey, here's the gold for you guys.

04:15 Let's take a look.

04:16 - This is the S&P futures, right?

04:18 So if I'm looking at S&P futures, and by the way,

04:21 all I have on this chart,

04:22 I know it's everything's color-coded,

04:24 'cause I cannot see, and I have cataracts.

04:26 And everything's gotta be like Skittles, okay?

04:29 So if you wanna look at that. - I like it, I like it.

04:32 - I've got an anchored VWAP on here.

04:34 That's the teal line.

04:35 The dots are the 200.

04:37 Notice how the 200 exponential and the anchored VWAP

04:40 are just hanging out with each other.

04:42 And then all I'm looking for is

04:44 when we get down to a 200 exponential.

04:46 So here's your S&P, here's March.

04:48 You know, I think if you look at SPY,

04:50 it's gonna look very similar.

04:52 I like looking at the S&P futures for the SPY,

04:54 but there it is.

04:55 When I see those white lines or an anchored VWAP

04:58 to the first trading day of the year, I get to work.

05:00 And it might only happen a handful of times a year,

05:03 but I'm thinking about a year, two, three, holding,

05:07 I don't care, right?

05:08 I mean, XLK, I mentioned last October.

05:11 So anyways, I don't wanna get y'all,

05:13 that was weekly, by the way.

05:14 So I don't wanna get all obnoxious with these screens,

05:16 but yeah, that's what I'll look for.

05:19 And it doesn't have to be all the noise

05:20 that I've got there, but at 200 is magical.

Finding Opportunities In The Market - Raghee Horner, Managing Director of Futures at Simpler Trading

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