ECOWAS standby force does not mean war is imminent. The Nigerien government needs to read the situation more carefully. – Prof. Bolaji Akinyemi. - video Dailymotion

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Watch ECOWAS standby force does not mean war is imminent. The Nigerien government needs to read the situation more carefully. – Prof. Bolaji Akinyemi. - Syncterface Media on Dailymotion

Transcript

00:00 Let's start with the communique.

00:01 Does the setting up of a standby force mean

00:07 we are ready to go to war?

00:10 And my answer, as the answer I gave last week

00:16 when we were talking about the use of force,

00:22 the possibility of the use of force, is no.

00:29 It doesn't mean that next week we are going to war

00:32 or next month we are going to war.

00:34 I will ask, I mean, I will put it in the form of a question.

00:42 Does having an army means you are ready to go to war?

00:48 Does it?

00:52 There are countries that have had armies for 50 years,

00:56 100 years, who have never gone to war.

00:59 But you set up an army just in case.

01:04 So having a standby force does not mean

01:08 you are going to war next week.

01:10 It simply means, like the Boy Scout logo

01:15 or Boy Scout motto, be prepared.

01:20 You are going to be foolish if in the middle of a crisis

01:25 you still have a laid back position.

01:28 And you are letting the other side know

01:32 that you are serious about the objective, not the means.

01:37 You are serious about the objective.

01:41 The means still remain fluid.

01:45 So that's really my own interpretation.

01:48 So I'm not going to ask for Nigerians with passports

01:52 to dust off their passports and start booking flights

01:57 and heading for the airport in order to avoid war.

02:02 So that's my own interpretation of the communique

02:10 that had come out of Abuja.

02:14 The reaction from the Nigerian side

02:20 shows a determination that they also regard it

02:25 as a serious crisis.

02:29 You don't, usually in a situation like this,

02:37 you don't make too many enemies for yourself.

02:42 Whether it is ECOWAS or the EU or the European Union.

02:50 Or the United Nations or the United States or France.

02:55 Usually in a situation like this,

03:02 you even look for what do you lose, I would ask,

03:07 by talking.

03:10 What would you lose?

03:15 But when you turn down all avenues for dialogue,

03:20 except those that you handpick for religious reasons

03:29 to dialogue with, I think there's a misreading

03:37 of the situation.

03:42 If I were advising the Nigerian government from day one,

03:47 I would have advised them,

03:49 talk to anybody who comes to talk to you.

03:53 You don't lose anything.

03:56 And if you think that they are wasting your time,

04:00 they are also wasting their own time.

04:02 But don't antagonize people,

04:07 especially when you are playing the weaker hand.

04:12 Don't antagonize people.

04:14 Not asking you to give up your position

04:17 or give up your objectives.

04:19 But there are ways and means in which you can let people know

04:24 how serious you are about your own position

04:30 without necessarily antagonizing them.

04:37 They will perceive this communique from Abuja

04:42 as part of the,

04:45 who is going to blink first syndrome.

04:50 So it's like a chess game.

04:56 Eko has now moved his bishop,

05:03 whilst we're protecting its coin.

05:06 On your side, if that is it,

05:11 how do you counter the move by the bishop

05:14 without exposing your own coin?

05:17 There are still several steps in that chess game

05:23 before they capture your kingdom.

05:27 Several steps.

05:30 The fact that they've moved to their bishop

05:32 does not mean that the game is over.

05:35 So there's no need for panic,

05:37 whether from the Eko side or from the side of Ejo.

05:42 But I think that the statement purportedly

05:50 made by the Senegalese president,

05:55 I think is very important,

05:58 which is that the coup in Niger

06:03 is one coup too far.

06:07 Or was it the Ivorian president who made, I don't know.

06:11 One of the presidents from the Francophonies

06:15 said the coup in Niger was a coup too far.

06:20 The linkage between this

06:24 and the position of neocolonialism in Africa

06:28 simply illustrates what scholars

06:34 in international affairs have always known,

06:40 which is that a crisis does not present you

06:45 with a one goal issue.

06:54 Because it's a not one factor issue, a crisis,

06:58 especially one that has several components.

07:04 And in this particular case of Niger,

07:10 it presents the complexity.

07:15 Number one, all of us,

07:19 and that includes our leaders,

07:21 have to be against neocolonialism.

07:26 All of us have to be against neocolonialism.

07:31 All of us have to recognize and deprecate

07:37 the post-colonial policies of the French in Africa.

07:47 We have to deprecate it from the one goal.

07:51 When, and thirdly, we now have to deprecate

08:00 existence of coups,

08:04 even when the coup is directed

08:14 at one of those responsible for the chaos

08:19 that you have in the sub-region.

08:24 Now, how do you now reconcile this?

08:27 How do you?

08:28 If you are against France,

08:33 France neocolonialism,

08:36 does it mean you have to be in favor of the coup?

08:40 And if you are against the coup,

08:45 does it mean you are in favor of French neocolonialism?

08:52 It's oxymoronic.

08:53 And so for policy planners,

08:59 how do you now balance what looks now like

09:07 contradictions in the objectives

09:12 of immediate policies of short-term goals?

ECOWAS standby force does not mean war is imminent. The Nigerien government needs to read the situation more carefully. – Prof. Bolaji Akinyemi.

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