Former Foreign Affairs Minister, Prof. A Bolaji Akinyemi, wades into ECOWAS vs Niger conflict.

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Nigeria's former Minister of Foreign Affairs wades into the ECOWAS - NIGER crisis following the military coup in Niger.

Transcript

00:00 If you don't want to become involved

00:04 in international affairs,

00:06 then don't join international organizations.

00:11 Resign from all your international organizations.

00:16 I thought this was what we were criticizing Jonathan for.

00:22 I thought this was what we were criticizing Buhari for,

00:27 that in the past 16 years,

00:29 Nigeria has been absent on the global scene.

00:34 Come on, we've got to be consistent on this matter.

00:38 And it will have nothing to do with our body language

00:42 towards whoever is holding that post.

00:46 Is the president of, sorry, is the chairman of ECOWAS,

00:52 is the president of Nigeria.

00:56 Now, you may be wanting to make a distinction

00:59 where there is no distinction,

01:01 but the fact you must bear in mind

01:03 is that Nigeria is just one country in ECOWAS

01:08 with one vote.

01:13 If he manages to persuade his colleagues

01:18 that this is the position that ECOWAS should take,

01:24 because this is the position he believes in,

01:28 that is the way politics is played.

01:32 If you are chairman of a party,

01:34 and you go to your party's national working committee

01:41 or national executive council,

01:45 they will be expecting leadership from you.

01:48 And if you don't show that leadership,

01:51 you are going to get a waffling of your political party.

01:55 The same thing goes for an international institution.

02:00 In fact, that is what the concept of sovereignty

02:06 is all about.

02:07 They are not committed to following you like sheep.

02:12 They all have their national interests

02:20 and they will take their decisions

02:23 on whether to support a resolution

02:27 or oppose that resolution

02:29 based on an assessment of their national interest.

02:33 If we were paying the budgets of ECOWAS countries,

02:38 then you could say they had no choice,

02:40 but we are not doing that.

02:43 So to that extent,

02:45 President Tinogo has one vote in ECOWAS,

02:48 even as chairman,

02:50 and I'm not sure he has a casting vote.

02:52 If ECOWAS end up being 50-50,

02:56 I don't think he has a casting vote.

02:58 That doesn't happen in international institutions.

03:00 The others will turn their back.

03:02 They will not support you.

03:06 So ECOWAS has taken a stand on Niger.

03:16 That stand was not taken in vacuum.

03:20 ECOWAS has a charter.

03:24 A charter is an aggregation of principles

03:30 that you all signed onto.

03:36 If somebody is going to ask ECOWAS to do something

03:39 that is not in the charter,

03:41 this will be pointed out on a point of order,

03:44 Mr. Chairman.

03:45 This is not part of our charter,

03:48 but if it is part of their charter,

03:50 then they debate it.

03:52 And if the majority would then, I already did.

03:56 But if the majority says,

03:58 well, it may be part of our charter,

04:00 but we don't want to interpret it that way,

04:03 then they will vote it down.

04:06 I haven't spent all my life

04:11 being a foreign policy analyst or scholar or practitioner.

04:16 So now, we wish for a Nigerian foreign policy of Owa and Beg.

04:24 Our policy has to stand for something.

04:30 We must be noted for something.

04:35 If you disagree with what we are noted for,

04:38 or you don't want us to be noted for anything,

04:41 say so.

04:42 Given my status in this country,

04:46 don't expect me to get onto a platform

04:52 and demarcate my precedent.

04:57 When I demarcate my precedent,

05:00 especially on a foreign policy issue,

05:03 I demarcate my country.

05:05 And when I demarcate my country,

05:08 I'm demarcating all of us.

05:11 And that is why there was a time in the United States

05:16 when the principle of foreign policy by the political class

05:22 was that partisanship stops at the water level.

05:27 Once you cross the waters,

05:35 then partisanship stops,

05:37 and we all rally around the president, commander in chief.

05:42 And that is why American foreign policy

05:47 had that unanimity of support.

05:51 Yes, now the United States has abandoned that.

05:56 Kudos to them.

05:57 Good luck to them.

05:58 Even though I find out that even in this day and age

06:03 when public opinion in America is divided 50/50

06:08 on a lot of issues,

06:10 they all still line up behind Biden

06:13 on support for Ukraine and on support for NATO.

06:18 So let's get that clear.

06:23 I will explain what I believe

06:28 the policies of the president of Nigeria is,

06:33 on Niger.

06:36 Whether I am in favor or not, I will say so,

06:42 but I'm not going to demarcate my president

06:47 or demarcate my country.

06:50 I think we've misinterpreted the concept of seven days.

07:01 At the expiry of the seven days,

07:04 it does not mean that boots are going to be on the ground.

07:07 You yourself have pointed out,

07:09 and quite legitimately and quite accurately,

07:14 that there is no rapid response force for ECOWAS

07:18 or for the EU for that matter.

07:21 Number two, there is no standing by force yet,

07:25 although the ECOWAS was supposed to have set up one

07:28 long time ago,

07:29 but for financial reasons,

07:32 nobody wanted to put money down

07:35 and Nigeria was not prepared at that time

07:38 to put the money down,

07:41 to establish a stand by force.

07:44 So at the expiry of the seven days,

07:48 it does not mean that boots are going to be marching

07:51 into Niger.

07:52 At the end of the seven days,

07:59 even conversation with the military regime in Niger

08:04 could be ongoing.

08:12 I said this on the Arise TV,

08:15 that diplomacy doesn't stop.

08:19 With the, diplomacy doesn't stop.

08:27 Simply because you put on the ground,

08:32 and what did you call the seven day,

08:38 the ultimatum.

08:39 Before that ultimatum even expires,

08:42 I will expect that there would be conversations

08:47 behind the line,

08:51 behind the chair,

08:54 that contacts,

08:56 whether by state actors or non-state actors,

08:59 would be taking place.

09:03 So that none of the parties would lose face.

09:08 And if there is going to be any concession made,

09:16 it does not have to be announced on the international media

09:21 or on the local media.

09:24 I expect that to be taking place,

09:27 and I do expect them to tell us.

09:30 But in fact, as of this morning,

09:33 it has been announced that a delegation of ECOWAS,

09:39 although there will continue to be this misapplication

09:49 of which is ECOWAS, which is Nigeria.

09:53 But I know as of this morning,

09:55 it's been announced that the regime in Niami

10:00 has agreed to receive a delegation

10:03 made up of the former head of state,

10:07 General Abdullah Salam Abubakar,

10:10 and the Sultan of Sokoto,

10:14 who even though we call him the Sultan of Sokoto,

10:18 but in fact, is the head of the Muslims in West Africa,

10:22 and commands a lot of respect.

10:25 He has gravitas all across West Africa.

10:29 We'll be going, and the new regime in Niami

10:35 has agreed to receive them.

10:41 That is the kind of thing which would have started

10:45 before even the expiry of the seven days.

10:48 And at the expiry of the seven days,

10:51 nothing prevents ECOWAS to say,

10:54 "We are in consultation,

10:57 we are having a discussion with the regime there.

11:02 Talks are taking place,

11:04 and that is part of what we expect will be happening

11:09 even at the expiration of the seven days."

11:12 But the seven days, expiration of the seven days,

11:15 does not mean votes on the ground.

11:17 That's not the way diplomacy works.

11:20 As long as there is movement,

11:23 I won't say that you suspend the seven days,

11:28 but it is understood there's not going to be

11:32 any military action at the end of the seven days.

11:35 And in any case, it's going to take you more than seven days

11:40 to put, to amass troops on the border

11:45 between ECOWAS countries and Niami.

11:51 But the fact that talks are taking place

11:54 will also not stop your military experts

11:59 from continuing also to map out what will be their reaction

12:05 if the talks fails, what they have said.

12:09 - The military approach is not what has created

12:13 a division in ECOWAS.

12:16 The coups that have taken place

12:18 in those three or four countries

12:21 are what have created the division within ECOWAS.

12:26 And you don't expect that the military regimes in ECOWAS

12:31 are going to support ECOWAS.

12:35 I expect them to back up the military regime in Niami,

12:40 especially in their own national interest.

12:48 Because if military action takes place

12:53 and there is a resolution of democracy in Niger,

12:59 I'm sure they will then expect

13:02 that they will be the next targets.

13:05 Therefore, it is in their best interest

13:09 to make sure that there is no military incursion

13:14 into Niami and that that will be the way they will be safe.

13:18 So there is a congruity of interest

13:22 between them and Niami.

13:27 So whether they can take on ECOWAS or not,

13:32 where I will suppose you can put 10 of me

13:36 in the ring against Mohammed Ghandi,

13:39 I don't need to tell you what the result will be.

13:42 So I don't start denigrating the military prowess

13:48 of any country, but you know what that will be.

13:52 The same people who probably were very critical

13:58 of calling ECOWAS paper tiger

14:01 because it was never able to go beyond

14:03 the ordinary condemnation are now the same people,

14:07 at least in Nigeria, who are now saying,

14:10 "No, ECOWAS has no business with what is going on in Niger

14:14 and we shouldn't go beyond our usual condemnation.

14:19 You do, you are damned.

14:21 You don't do, you are damned."

14:24 I think what is different in the case of Niger

14:28 is that you have a chairman of ECOWAS

14:31 who has decided to draw the line

14:35 that there will be no more coups in West Africa,

14:40 that there will be no more coups,

14:43 that ECOWAS will not tolerate coups

14:46 or terrorism or anti-democratic acts in West Africa.

14:56 And that if this happens,

14:58 we should be prepared to march our words with action.

15:02 I think that is the difference.

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