#StocksToWatch | SBICAP Securities' Sudeep Shah shares insight on key market levels and highlights stocks to keep on radar. #BQStocks #BQLive
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00:00 Hello and welcome to BQ prime. A very good afternoon to all the viewers. I'm Hiral Dharia.
00:06 Clearly, if you see in terms of markets, the wishing of a 20,000 mark in terms of Nifty
00:12 50 has been shattered. We're way below it and now hovering around those 19,750 levels.
00:19 The major culprit, actually played spoilsport is Infosys, which has pulled the other Nifty
00:25 majors lower as well as you have Reliance, which is also trading under pressure. And
00:29 these are major stocks which are impacting Nifty 50. Bank Nifty also, the cuts are not
00:34 as steep. It's clearly outperforming the benchmark indices in trade. But where from here on,
00:40 the key questions. Sudeep Shah, Deputy VP, Technical and Derivative Research at SBI Gap
00:44 Securities joins in. Sudeep, good afternoon and welcome to the show.
00:49 Hi, Hiral. Good afternoon to you.
00:53 The first question coming to us, two sessions, 20,000 was something which was key after we
01:00 did not see that mark in the last hour of trade. The anticipation was that at least
01:06 we will open with a 20,000. But clearly, Infosys has played spoilsport in today's session.
01:12 What's your view to that now?
01:15 Along with discussing about Nifty at 20,000, it is very important now, the second point
01:22 which you mentioned is Nifty IT. Now, that sector has kind of played a spoilsport. And
01:28 if we closely see Nifty IT, if we see last year, Jan 2022, Nifty IT index had hit a high
01:37 of 39,440 and then hit a low of around 26,500 on September 2022. Now, if we just take a
01:46 look at the 38% retracement of this entire fall, the resistance comes around somewhere
01:50 around 35, 500, 31, 500, 31, 600 kind of levels. This is exactly where this time we have retraced
01:59 from on 14th and 17th July in the last three, four trading sessions bearing today's day.
02:06 In all these three attempts, the index, IT index was not able to cross that. Even in
02:13 February 2023, a few months back, when there was an IT rally, even at that point, this
02:20 zone acted as a resistance. So I feel that we are still not out of the woods in terms
02:24 of the IT stocks. We can clearly say that the IT stocks are now back and they will lead
02:31 the rally from here on. So my sense is that we might see another few down days in IT or
02:36 some selling pressure going forward also in the next week. And it will be up to the metals,
02:41 auto and the banking pack to lead the rally or at least see to it that the Nifty still
02:48 stabilizes around between about 19, 500, 19, 600 levels. And going forward in the weekend
02:55 now, if today we have Reliance, then ICICI Bank and Kodak Bank, these three stocks, the
03:00 results of these three stocks will act as an important trigger on Monday morning. So
03:04 I feel that from the current levels, the range for Nifty could be somewhere around 19, 500
03:12 to say 20,000. And only about 20,000, we could now look at any bigger and fresh upside, a
03:20 major upside about 20,000 levels.
03:22 So, Poojali, is it right to say that your 19, 600, 19, 650 zone is going to be the key
03:30 support level that we should be tracking from here on?
03:33 Yeah, 19, 600 will be very important. 19, 500 to 19, 600, because if you see the monthly
03:40 expiry now, 19, 500 and 19, 600 levels are where the put writers have stabilized and
03:47 we have seen some serious put writing there. So I feel 19, 500, 19, 600 zone will act as
03:52 a key support from here on.
03:55 Right. Talking about Bank Nifty as well, clearly, if you see the build up, that's still, I mean,
04:04 where are you seeing the support? Do you think 45, 500 is what should be watching out for?
04:08 Yes, I feel 45, 500 now, which was the previous high on 4th of July, 45, 600 kind of levels
04:21 were the high on 4th of July. After that, Bank Nifty had witnessed some kind of consolidation.
04:26 So that day's high will now act as an important support. So that comes to somewhere around
04:30 45, 600. And even if you see the derivative data also, 46,000 and 45, 800 is where the
04:38 open interest concentration in terms of puts is witnessed. So I feel 45, 500 for the next
04:44 week will be a very important level to watch out for.
04:48 Right. You mentioned about ICICI Bank as well. In fact, the stock has now crossed the four
04:53 digit mark, Rs. 1000 in trade today. You said Monday will be crucial to watch out for this
04:58 one. What are charts indicating and what should the strategy be with ICICI Bank?
05:02 The charts are indicating that it's going in a very, very bullish momentum going into
05:08 the results. You're still now whatever results have come within the banking space, may it
05:12 be IndusInd Bank or NTFC Bank, see the numbers were good. And with ICICI Bank, we can at
05:19 least bet on one thing that this bank is much more aggressive than all the other banks around.
05:24 So what I feel is that the results may be good. I'm not betting on the results, but
05:29 on the charts, I feel that the setup is really good on the daily, weekly and monthly setup.
05:34 Also, if you see the options data, 990, 980, all the puts, we are seeing some serious put
05:40 writing happening there. And even the call writers are now seeing some kind of unwinding
05:45 in the call positions also. So what I feel is with the kind of data and the setup, we
05:49 might be eyeing a gap up in ICICI Bank on Monday morning, post the results on Saturday.
05:54 So the view is bullish on ICICI Bank. And if someone wants to even play the rally on the upside,
06:00 one can do it via options also can buy a 1010 call option, which is very cheap, cheaper right
06:09 now if one does not want to take a risk of buying a future and holding it for Monday.
06:13 Right. Similarly, if you see in terms of Reliance Industries as well,
06:18 what is the derivative data indicating? Where are you seeing a buildup?
06:21 See, if you see the Reliance Industries data, the maximum open interest is right now around 2540
06:32 and 2520. That is where the stock is currently trading at 2544. So 2540 is the 2540 and 25 is
06:41 the 100. 5,000 puts are witnessing maximum buildup. But on the other hand, 2600 call option
06:49 is having the maximum open interest buildup. So I feel that this top will now be in a range of
06:55 2500 and 2580, 2600 on the upside. And it will just oscillate between these levels and this
07:03 trading band. And if you're looking at names like Infosys, Tecmo, Indra, Persistent, all these
07:10 counters are seeing a short buildup in trade today. What should the strategy be according to you?
07:15 See, for Infosys, I feel one should wait before doing any bottom pressure. This is the second
07:23 time that has happened in two consecutive results. Last time also, we have seen a bigger gap down and
07:28 was that the stock on the next day had also fallen another 7-8%. And then it had started
07:35 bottoming out. So today is the first day of the fall. I feel we should be waiting for Monday and
07:40 a major support in Infosys is somewhere around 1250-1260 levels. So when we approach that level,
07:48 at that point, it is a good zone to accumulate from an investor standpoint. But from a trading
07:53 standpoint, I would not advocate too much buying this stock. The reason is, in such a bullish
08:00 market, one should look to buy out the powers and not just try to do any bottom fishing or
08:05 try to play for a small reverse. Right. Moving from there on, if you see another
08:11 counter from the IT part, which you have seen a long build-up is Emphasis. What is your view?
08:17 See, if you see Emphasis, it is a completely a contrast chart to all the other IT stocks as well
08:25 as the IT index also. So Emphasis, if you see the charts are indicating a very bullish setup and
08:31 even it has crossed its prior resistance of around 20 to 50-odd zone, which it registered in February.
08:39 So I feel this stock can be bought at current levels also and
08:43 20 to 50 will act as a stop-loss and 24-50, 25-100 will act as a target.
08:49 Right. Another one is India Mark Nivesh that is also seeing some good activity in today's
08:56 session. What is your view? India Mark Nivesh. See, this stock has announced
09:07 very good numbers and post that we have seen a bigger breakout in terms of daily charts also.
09:12 If we see in the last three months, it has broken its resistance, which was at around 3020. And
09:18 above that, we have seen a good move till 3300 today. However, from the higher levels, we have
09:23 seen some kind of a selling pressure. But if we see the daily, weekly and monthly charts, this
09:27 chart shows a very good reversal pattern. From here on also, I feel on dips, this stock can be
09:34 added with a 3050 stop-loss and a 3400 target on the upside. Right. So apart from the names that
09:42 we discussed, anything that is on your radar that will be good buying opportunities?
09:47 I think from the large cap space, Larson looks good from current levels,
09:54 post its numbers yesterday and the announcement. So I feel Larson looks good. But one space which
10:02 is really buzzing and which I like is the railway stock as well as the sugar stocks. Now, if you see
10:09 the railway stocks since yesterday and today, we have seen some seriously good buildup in stocks
10:14 like RVNL, IRKON, IRFC, Tata Car Wagons. So within that, I feel that IRKON from the current
10:22 levels also could be bought with a stop-loss of say 89.90 on the downside, 89 on the downside and
10:29 a target of 98 to 100 on the upside. I feel that this stock has a long way to go on the upside and
10:35 we will see some seriously good action in this stock in the next few weeks.
10:39 Right. So these are a few of the names one should be watching out for as well. Thank you, Sudip,
10:45 so much for joining us on the show and sharing those views. But clearly in terms of today's
10:49 session as well, the pressure has continued and we're pretty much hovering around those 19,750
10:55 levels in terms of Nifty 50. Bank Nifty is clearly outperforming in trade and it's the PSU Bank Index
11:01 which is the top gaining sector, whereas it's the ITPAC which is the top losing sector in trade.
11:08 If you see the advanced to client ratio as well, pretty much in favour of the bears is what we
11:13 have seen so far. Overall, if you see, yes, it is a new soft moving action, but a lot of movement
11:18 and profit booking that's coming in in terms of the large cap space as well. If you see in terms
11:25 of broader markets, Tanla Solutions, 13.5% are both coming in on the back of earnings. India
11:31 Mark on the announcement of the buyback and earnings have seen some smart moves.
11:34 Rites is also up in trade. In fact, there is some bit of action in terms of real-day players.
11:39 Coffee Day trade ending under pressure, Persistent Systems trading under pressure. CIE India on the
11:45 back of earnings has continued trade under pressure as well. So clearly, a deep stock specific action
11:51 and profit booking and interesting is going to be to see how soon do we see that 20,000 mark in trade
11:58 today. That's all that we have in this session. Thanks for watching. And lots more lined up on
12:03 BQ Prime. Please stay tuned.
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