S. Korean economy to grow 3.1% next year, after shrinking 1.1% this year: KDI
- 3 years ago
KDI, 내년 韓 경제성장률 3.1%로 하향조정…올해는 -1.1%
A state-run think tank has downgraded South Korea's GDP growth forecast for 2021,... citing the growing risks posed by the global resurgence of COVID-19.
Kim Jae-hee has the details.
The Korea Development Institute has revised down South Korea's GDP growth forecast for 2021.
In its latest economic assessment report Wednesday, the think tank forecast the economy to grow 3-point-1 percent next year, after shrinking 1-point-1 percent this year.
Three-point-1 percent is point-4 percentage points lower than the previous forecast made in September.
The KDI explained the economy has continued to contract, mainly in the service industry, due to growing downside risks stemming from the global resurgence of COVID-19.
"Uncertainty is rising with the recent resurgence of COVID-19 in the U.S. and Europe, along with partial lockdowns. Taking into account internal and external factors, South Korea's economic recovery is forecast to be slow and limited."
According to the KDI report, total consumption will likely rise just 3-point-3 percent next year.
Exports are expected to increase 3-point-1 percent in 2021 amid the gradual recovery of the global economy, and imports are forecast to rise 3-point-8 percent.
South Korea's current account is forecast to post a surplus of 57-point-9 billion U.S. dollars next year, less than this year's, due to increased imports amid worsening trade conditions.
Consumer prices are expected to edge up point-7 percent next year, only slightly higher than this year, due to low inflation for the foreseeable future.
The number of jobs is expected to increase by only about 100-thousand next year, as the service sector continues to suffer, and the unemployment rate will likely be higher than this year.
An expert also notes that new jobs may be limited to certain sectors only.
"The retail and the service sector are suffering due to the pandemic. Only jobs in the online shopping and delivery service industry are being created."
Regarding the U.S. election, the KDI said presumptive president-elect Joe Biden's economic plans could face challenges with a solidly Republican Senate, and his policies would take time to implement so their impact would not be significant for 2021.
It also noted that, if COVID-19 vaccines are fully distributed before the end of 2021, the institute could revise up its growth forecast.
Kim Jae-hee, Arirang News.
A state-run think tank has downgraded South Korea's GDP growth forecast for 2021,... citing the growing risks posed by the global resurgence of COVID-19.
Kim Jae-hee has the details.
The Korea Development Institute has revised down South Korea's GDP growth forecast for 2021.
In its latest economic assessment report Wednesday, the think tank forecast the economy to grow 3-point-1 percent next year, after shrinking 1-point-1 percent this year.
Three-point-1 percent is point-4 percentage points lower than the previous forecast made in September.
The KDI explained the economy has continued to contract, mainly in the service industry, due to growing downside risks stemming from the global resurgence of COVID-19.
"Uncertainty is rising with the recent resurgence of COVID-19 in the U.S. and Europe, along with partial lockdowns. Taking into account internal and external factors, South Korea's economic recovery is forecast to be slow and limited."
According to the KDI report, total consumption will likely rise just 3-point-3 percent next year.
Exports are expected to increase 3-point-1 percent in 2021 amid the gradual recovery of the global economy, and imports are forecast to rise 3-point-8 percent.
South Korea's current account is forecast to post a surplus of 57-point-9 billion U.S. dollars next year, less than this year's, due to increased imports amid worsening trade conditions.
Consumer prices are expected to edge up point-7 percent next year, only slightly higher than this year, due to low inflation for the foreseeable future.
The number of jobs is expected to increase by only about 100-thousand next year, as the service sector continues to suffer, and the unemployment rate will likely be higher than this year.
An expert also notes that new jobs may be limited to certain sectors only.
"The retail and the service sector are suffering due to the pandemic. Only jobs in the online shopping and delivery service industry are being created."
Regarding the U.S. election, the KDI said presumptive president-elect Joe Biden's economic plans could face challenges with a solidly Republican Senate, and his policies would take time to implement so their impact would not be significant for 2021.
It also noted that, if COVID-19 vaccines are fully distributed before the end of 2021, the institute could revise up its growth forecast.
Kim Jae-hee, Arirang News.