Former IAEA inspector warns of difficulties in North Korea denuclearization process
- 6 years ago
Efforts toward denuclearization was one of the key agreements reached at the inter-Korean summit... and it's also going be the number one priority in the upcoming North Korea-U.S. summit.
But our reporter, Kwon Jang-ho, met with a former North Korea nuclear inspector,.... who warns that the verification process won't be easy.
In the Panmunjom Declaration, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un promised to work with South Korea and the international community to denuclearize the regime.
However the practicalities of carrying out the process of denuclearization are daunting.
"First of all we have to acknowledge that this is the largest, biggest undertaking the international community has ever taken with regards to dismantlement of nuclear weapons capabilities."
Olli Heinonen is the former deputy director of the International Atomic Energy Agency, and the chief inspector when the international body was last tasked with verifying North Korea's denuclearization pledges. He says it was difficult in the past, but the North's progress since then is going to make it even more challenging.
"We need entirely new methodologies for the verification. Some of these things need to be developed and manufactured. IAEA itself doesn't have resources for that kind of activity. It has to come from the member states. So there will be a period of serious development of methods, approaches and equipment for the verification."
Some estimates say that the North Korea denuclearization process could take decades.
The former inspector was unwilling to give a timeline himself, but he did offer up clues.
"For example, on the IAEA experiences in South Africa, which program was much smaller. It took first one year just to confirm that no one nuclear material, not enough for one weapon was missing. It took one full year. But this was not a large program. They had half a dozen nuclear weapons. Here we have much more. So I would expect that the time is longer."
And even if North Korea does cooperate with authorities, the nature of nuclear weapons means it could still be impossible to completely verify, according to Former Ambassador Robert Gallucci, who was the chief U.S. negotiator during the 1992 North Korea nuclear crisis.
"It'd be much more difficult to say we're going to have the North Koreans give up nuclear weapons. They could say it, but that's a very difficult thing to verify. The nuclear weapons that the North Koreans have or any countries have would fit rather comfortably under this desk. So to look under every desk in North Korea, it would be a pretty challenging assignment."
The international community has been down this road before with North Korea, only for it to break down. But Heinonen says that doesn't mean denuclearization should be any less of an aim.
"This should be the target, this should be the final objective. If you start with something less with negotiations normally you end up even less from that. So therefore denuclearization needs to be on
But our reporter, Kwon Jang-ho, met with a former North Korea nuclear inspector,.... who warns that the verification process won't be easy.
In the Panmunjom Declaration, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un promised to work with South Korea and the international community to denuclearize the regime.
However the practicalities of carrying out the process of denuclearization are daunting.
"First of all we have to acknowledge that this is the largest, biggest undertaking the international community has ever taken with regards to dismantlement of nuclear weapons capabilities."
Olli Heinonen is the former deputy director of the International Atomic Energy Agency, and the chief inspector when the international body was last tasked with verifying North Korea's denuclearization pledges. He says it was difficult in the past, but the North's progress since then is going to make it even more challenging.
"We need entirely new methodologies for the verification. Some of these things need to be developed and manufactured. IAEA itself doesn't have resources for that kind of activity. It has to come from the member states. So there will be a period of serious development of methods, approaches and equipment for the verification."
Some estimates say that the North Korea denuclearization process could take decades.
The former inspector was unwilling to give a timeline himself, but he did offer up clues.
"For example, on the IAEA experiences in South Africa, which program was much smaller. It took first one year just to confirm that no one nuclear material, not enough for one weapon was missing. It took one full year. But this was not a large program. They had half a dozen nuclear weapons. Here we have much more. So I would expect that the time is longer."
And even if North Korea does cooperate with authorities, the nature of nuclear weapons means it could still be impossible to completely verify, according to Former Ambassador Robert Gallucci, who was the chief U.S. negotiator during the 1992 North Korea nuclear crisis.
"It'd be much more difficult to say we're going to have the North Koreans give up nuclear weapons. They could say it, but that's a very difficult thing to verify. The nuclear weapons that the North Koreans have or any countries have would fit rather comfortably under this desk. So to look under every desk in North Korea, it would be a pretty challenging assignment."
The international community has been down this road before with North Korea, only for it to break down. But Heinonen says that doesn't mean denuclearization should be any less of an aim.
"This should be the target, this should be the final objective. If you start with something less with negotiations normally you end up even less from that. So therefore denuclearization needs to be on