- 2 days ago
After Field Marshal Asim Munir, Bilawal Bhutto Zardari and now Pakistan's Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif has threatened India over the Indus waters treaty, which has been held in abeyance since May following the Pahalgam terror attack.
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00:00Good evening. Pakistan's Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif called boot polish in his own country
00:08is now threatening India over the Indus Waters Treaty being held in a bench.
00:13Now, remember first it was failed Marshal Asim Munir, then Bilawal Bhutto Zardari and now Shahbaz Sharif.
00:19There's a clear pattern to these threats that are emerging from Pakistan.
00:23But after the Pehlgaam terror attack, can India take Pakistan's threats lightly
00:28because is Pakistan now emboldened from all the attention it's getting from the United States of America?
00:35So the US president who calls himself the President of Peace,
00:39is he actually supporting a peace-loving nation or a state sponsor of radical Islamist terror?
00:50Pakistan pushes war over water.
00:58Munir, Bilawal, now Shahbaz.
01:02If you give us a cold water, then you have to keep this thing in mind that you can't kill Pakistan from Pakistan.
01:17The US ignores Pakistan's terror role.
01:21The United States and Pakistan discussed ways to enhance cooperation, to counter terrorist threats.
01:28Apache Pakistan threatens water wars.
01:31That's the big focus on India first.
01:34You know, that old adage that barking dogs seldom bite, clearly doesn't hold true for Pakistan.
01:44And India knows this, especially after the Pehlgaam terror attacks, post-General Asim Munir's rants against India.
01:50So can India afford to ignore these repeated Pakistani threats?
01:54And has US President Donald Trump sacrificed the India-US strategic partnership at the altar of whether it's a cryptocurrency deal with Pakistan
02:03or to regain a toehold in the region to keep an eye on Iran?
02:07Or is there another game at play here?
02:09We debate that.
02:11Coming up at 8.30 on India first, India is in this global chakra view of changing equations.
02:19So Ambassador Kaval Sibal, former Foreign Secretary and former Ambassador to Russia, Turkey, France and Egypt,
02:25one of India's best-known diplomatic minds,
02:27as he decodes these fast-changing global equations and India in midst of.
02:33I'm Gaurav Savant.
02:35As always, let's get started with the headlines on India first.
02:42BJP counters Rahul Gandhi's vote-chori claim,
02:45says Sonia Gandhi's name appeared first on the voters list in 1980,
02:51three years before she officially even became an Indian citizen.
02:57Rahul Gandhi claims threat to life over his remarks on Veer Savarkar,
03:07says a complainant is a direct descendant of Nathuram Godse,
03:12alleges his opponents are triggered by the vote-chori claim.
03:16Mega India today, Independence Day scooped Prime Minister Narendra Modi's red vote speech
03:28to be a tribute to India's braves.
03:31Operation Sindhuur bravery to be the major theme.
03:35Modi may back restoring statehood in Jammu and Kashmir.
03:40Council in the Supreme Court raises top court's order on stray dogs before the Chief Justice of India.
03:52Court says the matter will be looked into.
03:55Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi to visit India on the 18th of August to hold crucial bilaterals
04:07with National Security Advisor Ajit Doval on crucial border issues.
04:20Pakistan's Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif has claimed that the enemy,
04:25these are the words he's used,
04:26the enemy will not be allowed to snatch even a drop of water
04:30and if this were to happen,
04:32there would be a lesson that the enemy will never forget.
04:37General Asim Munir, a failed Marshal Asim Munir,
04:40was earlier quoted saying,
04:41Pakistan would launch multiple missiles
04:43in case India were to build a dam on the Indus.
04:47Pakistan's former Foreign Minister,
04:49Bilawal Bhutto Zardari II,
04:51had echoed words to this effect.
04:54Remember, but even a terrorist in Pakistan,
04:56a UN-designated global terrorist,
04:58Hafiz Mohammed Saeed had threatened to nuke India
05:02in case Indus waters were dammed or stopped from Pakistan
05:07or words to the effect,
05:08usually, India would have dismissed these statements
05:14like the rants of a failing, if not a failed state.
05:19But after the Pahalgaam terror attacks,
05:20India clearly has to adopt a more cautious approach.
05:24We get you more in this report.
05:26Three days, three threats.
05:39After former Foreign Minister and Army Chief,
05:42now Pakistan's Prime Minister threatens India on Indus water.
05:46Pakistan is clearly,
06:03Pakistan is clearly frustrated after India kept the Interswater Treaty in abeyance following the Pahal Gaham terror attack.
06:22The Pahal Gaham terror attack.
06:34The Pahal Gaham terror attack.
06:42The Pahal Gaham terror attack.
06:48The Pahal Gaham terror attack.
06:57Desperate for water and desperate for global backing, Pakistan is leaning on Washington.
07:04So far, President Donald Trump seems ready to oblige.
07:09From Asim Munir's nuclear threat against India on American soil to joint counter-terror talks that skipped any mention of Pakistan's terror export.
07:18Of late, the U.S. has turned a blind eye to transgressions by Islamabad.
07:25The U.S. has also designated the Balochistan Liberation Army as a terrorist organization.
07:30The United States and Pakistan reaffirmed their shared commitment to combating terrorism in all its forms and manifestations during this latest round of the talks in Islamabad.
07:43The United States and Pakistan discussed ways to enhance cooperation, to counter-terrorist threats.
07:49And I think that for the region and for the world, the United States working with both those nations is good news and will promote a future that's beneficial.
08:00The real game is strategic.
08:02Hosting Munir, signing oil deals, hinting at Kashmir talks, all to pull Pakistan away from China and push American arms in, according to some analysts.
08:14This is all political game. It has to be taken with a pinch of salt, what American president says about it.
08:21Because American president requires Pakistan. Pakistan is strategically important.
08:27And at the moment, Pakistan has got Chinese influence in it, which America does not want.
08:32Using this strategy to, I think, influence India to, you know, agree more on the Russian oil issue, to agree more on the trade issue.
08:41My assessment is that America is playing a big game in this region now.
08:46And they've decided that Pakistan will be their pawn, of course, or their hired, you know, facility.
08:56India isn't fooled. New Delhi has time and again reminded Washington, you can't fight terror while backing its fountainhead.
09:06And as Pakistan threatens water wars, India's silent response speaks louder.
09:12No water till terror ends.
09:15Bureau Report, India Today.
09:17Karl Marx had famously said, history repeats itself, first as a tragedy and then a farce.
09:29And Pakistan cozying up to the United States, clearly both a tragedy and a farce.
09:35But Pakistan cozying up to the United States has actually emboldened Pakistan to repeatedly threaten India.
09:42Thrice in as many days. How should India view these threats? How should India respond?
09:48Joining me on India first is left-wing general Raj Shukla, former army commander and one of India's foremost voices on strategy.
09:56Ambassador Yash Sinha, former High Commissioner to the UK, knows the Indus Waters Treaty very well.
10:02And when Pakistan sued India, Ambassador Sinha will tell us how Pakistan was caught on the wrong foot.
10:09Abhijit Aiyar Mitra is a senior fellow at the Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies.
10:13Alexander Slater is a geopolitical expert on national security, joins us in a moment.
10:18General Shukla, how would you view these repeated threats from Pakistan?
10:24Now, is this meant, you know, when it comes to people like Shahbaz Sharif or Bilawal Bhutto Zardari for domestic consumption,
10:30where it comes from Aasem Munir either for the Pakistani diaspora in the US
10:35or is he desperately seeking US intervention on Indus Waters and on Kashmir?
10:41So, good evening to you, to my fellow panelists and to your viewers.
10:48You know, these threats from Munir and Bilawal and Nawaz, Shahbaz Sharif are really not material, though I'll come to them.
10:59Before that, you know, I want to make a couple of comments on the broader Indo-US relationship and in that context, Pakistan.
11:07So, this morning, Marco Rubio gave an interview where he said that, you know, Donald Trump is the president of peace.
11:16All credit must go to Trump and he rattled out the conflicts that he seems to have solved.
11:22Cambodia, Thailand, Israel, Iran, Ravenda, Congo, so on and so forth.
11:27Now, I was wondering, what is the aim of US foreign policy?
11:31Is it to give Mr. Trump the Nobel Prize or are there larger objectives to secure American interests in the world?
11:39If there were larger objectives, they would see India's great value in taking care of whatever threats or challenges China poses to US.
11:50Or is, you know, Trumpian ego becoming synonymous with US foreign policy?
11:56Because Mr. Marco Rubio is a man of some wisdom, so I thought.
12:01But the entire advisors around Trump, the whole MAGA camp, all they're going to do is get Trump a Nobel Prize.
12:08Are these the larger objectives of American foreign policy?
12:11So, the worry is that the same voices are going silent.
12:14You know, that is my real worry.
12:16Now, what is India saying?
12:18India is saying, please be a man of peace.
12:20But we are also a 5,000-year-old civilization, dammit.
12:24We've dealt with larger questions of war and peace.
12:28And, you know, we cannot line up for photo shoots at your bidding.
12:33We simply cannot do that.
12:34Please understand India.
12:36We are autonomous in mind and deed.
12:38We make our own strategic choices, where to get oil from, when to engage with Iran.
12:43That is India.
12:44Now, this is what is rattling the West, Trump and his advisors.
12:48And I think that is the central issue.
12:50Now, what must we do?
12:51Well, despite all this, I say we must still stay invested in all the constituencies in America,
12:59along the Beltway, the think tanks, Congress, lobbyists.
13:03We must also grit our teeth and bear it.
13:06Anything that works.
13:08I am saying a combination of pragmatism and principle.
13:11But principle is also important.
13:13India simply cannot be what the other countries do.
13:17That is something wiser American people must understand.
13:21You know, very sane words.
13:22You know, very sane words.
13:24Absolutely.
13:25Trumps will come and Trumps will go.
13:28Five seconds.
13:29Go on, sir.
13:30Is it simply not bad mathematics?
13:31Bad?
13:32Bad?
13:33Yeah.
13:34Is it not simply bad mathematics to prioritize whatever 23, 24 crore lumpen Pakistanis,
13:40and not because of the Pakistani people, but because of what the Pakistani military has done to them.
13:45Over 144 crore vibrant Indians.
13:50Yes.
13:51That is what America must see.
13:52Absolutely.
13:53So, these are my failed remarks.
13:54And the other aspects of what Shahbaz said, the others said, we will come to later.
13:58Okay.
13:59Okay.
14:00No, you make very sane points, sir.
14:02And you know, to any sane person, this is logical.
14:07Ambassador Sina, what do you make, you know, of all these words that come from the Pakistani leadership?
14:14Are they emboldened because they're getting all this attention from Trump and is Trump miffed?
14:19Because all he wants is a Nobel Prize.
14:22Let me get a Nobel Prize.
14:24I've got peace everywhere.
14:25You know, I'm the President of Peace.
14:27And perhaps he's very angry because when Prime Minister Narendra Modi was in Calgary for G7 at Kanakis,
14:34he did not go to Washington DC for that photo op with Trump where Trump wanted to ambush India with Aasem Munir for that handshake.
14:43He came back to India and said, I have more important things to do.
14:46And peace should mean genuine peace.
14:49But your take, Ambassador Sina.
14:51Gaurav, thank you for having me on your show.
14:54The two points I want to make.
14:57The first point you mentioned about Calgary and you mentioned the telephone call on the 17th of June between President Trump and Prime Minister Modi.
15:06Now, the fact of the matter is that Prime Minister Modi was going to Croatia on his way back on an official visit.
15:13I think if I recall correctly, it was the first ever visit by a Prime Minister to Croatia.
15:19This was a predetermined program.
15:21It's not that you can just change your program and rush and do something else, however important or unimportant that might be.
15:29That's number one.
15:30So I think in international relations, there is form.
15:33And that's how international relations are conducted.
15:36Number two, as far as the statements emanating from Pakistan, I think in your initial comments, before you started this battle discussion, there was something about dogs barking.
15:49And need I say more?
15:51Because, you know, these people, I have dealt with them for so long.
15:55I know that they make a lot of noise, the sort of statements.
15:59In fact, Prime Minister Shahbaz Shri, if I remember once, he got so carried away that he knocked down the mic.
16:06It was not in relation to India.
16:08It was in relation to something else.
16:10But you know that the Prime Minister in Pakistan counts for nothing.
16:14You all know it's a sham democracy.
16:17The most popular leader is in Che.
16:20And in any fair election, there would be another Prime Minister.
16:24But that's a different story.
16:26As far as the army is concerned, their complete implacable hostility towards India is well done.
16:35In fact, the Prime Minister mentioned the enemy.
16:39I'm glad he did because I hope your viewers realize that there are some in India who still don't view Pakistan as an enemy.
16:46They would still rather go and light candles at the border.
16:49So I think we need to be very clear whom we are dealing with.
16:53As far as India is concerned, I'm sure armed forces are well equipped to handle the threat that's emanating from Pakistan or that will emanate from Pakistan in the future.
17:05Sir, completely take your point.
17:08And Abhijit, you know, when we say barking dogs seldom bite, it may be true.
17:14But with Pakistan, after Asim Munir's rant, the Pehalgaam terror attack took place.
17:20After his second rant, especially when he says, we'll start from the east and move west.
17:25How would you view, one, these statements, two, the first statement actually came when he was on US soil.
17:34Three, when you look at America, is Donald Trump, is it all about that cryptocurrency deal with Pakistan?
17:40Because Pakistan doesn't have much money.
17:42It can't be oil.
17:4316 past attempts to drill oil failed.
17:46The Americans drilled oil.
17:47They didn't succeed.
17:48The Canadians did it.
17:49The Europeans did it.
17:50There was no oil.
17:51Had there been oil, China would have harnessed it already.
17:53What do you make of Trump's sudden Pakistan love?
17:58Not to mention the fact, Gaurav, that if, you know, the Americans go into Balochistan now,
18:03how are the Chinese going to react having expended so much blood and money on so-called developing Balochistan.
18:12So it's good for us.
18:14I mean, it's stirring the pot for us, and that's very good.
18:16You know, if China falls out with Pakistan, that's an excellent thing.
18:19But let's just address the core issues here.
18:22You know, I've said since the end of Operation Sindur on the 10th of that month,
18:28Asim Munir has been desperate for some kind of a PR victory.
18:34You know, he claims he shot down I don't know how many hundred Rafals or 500 Rafals.
18:40I forget what the current number is.
18:43But that was the Air Force shooting it down.
18:45What did he do to become Field Martial?
18:48So his very promotion to Field Martial shows you his desperation, number one.
18:52Remember, it did not go down the Pahlgaam attack and what happened after that.
18:56He can hide whatever losses they had from his public.
19:02He can't hide it from the core commanders.
19:04And as I understand it from all my sources in Pakistan, the core commanders are very upset with him.
19:09Now, his dilemma is he needs another attack on India.
19:13Not necessarily in Kashmir.
19:14It may come through Nepal.
19:15It may come through Bangladesh, something like that.
19:17But he needs it.
19:18And I've been saying this for a long time.
19:20We may be able to parry about 100 attacks, but the 101st attack will always succeed.
19:24That has always been the logic of terrorism.
19:27The issue then is, what will he do when India retaliates to that attack?
19:32Now, when it comes to the Water Treaty, it's slightly different.
19:35Do you remember the Atlantic shooting down case in 1999 where we shot down a Pleasure Atlantic helicopter?
19:41The helicopter I was on board was almost shot down by the Pakistani stinger, the Mi-17, Mi-8 at that time in Naliyah. Go on, sir.
19:48Right. Now, what happens with that is, if you remember at international arbitration, the Pakistanis went for international arbitration knowing fully well that India's accession to the ICJ was based on an exclusion of all other Commonwealth countries.
20:02They still decide to spend about 50 million dollars on that arbitration, lost it on jurisdictional grounds.
20:09Again, they have gone. And remember, the permanent court of arbitration is not the ICJ.
20:15The annexes to the Indus Water Treaty very clearly state a neutral expert.
20:22And even that now does not hold. It is infructuous because it is now in abeyance.
20:28So what they're doing now is it could be one. I think the statements that Munir has made in America are again grandstanding, but they do point towards an impending attack of some kind, which he needs to save his career.
20:43But what Shahbaz Sharif is doing is exactly what Nawaz Sharif did, that when the Atlantic was shot down, they're taking you to international arbitration.
20:50They need some kind of public. So it's a mix of that desperate. It's it shows that desperation.
20:56Alexander Slater, conventional wisdom suggests, as General Raj Shukla was also pointing out, US and India should remain strong partners.
21:06It benefits both countries. It benefits both economies. The aim when Prime Minister Narendra Modi was in the US in February was to take bilateral trade to 500 billion dollars by 2030.
21:19US and India were also talking about coming together to checkmate expansionist forces, China.
21:25How do you see Trump's changed attitude towards India?
21:28Gaurav, thanks so much for having me here. It's wonderful to be part of this discussion with the other panelists.
21:35I think you're 100 percent right. I think the US and India, for all the reasons that you said it, are natural partners.
21:42And it's difficult to explain this sudden turn and events.
21:48Obviously, the inability of the two sides to come together on a trade agreement has been a focal point of the rupture.
21:59But, you know, I think we all know now that this has been building for some time.
22:04Clearly, the disagreement between Prime Minister Modi and President Trump over how to discuss what happened in May and what led to the conclusion of the cross border conflict has has helped push us to where we are today.
22:25I think the key is to look forward as your suggestion. How do we get out of this?
22:30How do we get back to a better place between the two countries who, again, are natural partners?
22:35Both have very strong interests in creating a free, open, prosperous and peaceful Indo-Pacific.
22:41It's why they've worked together so hard over the last I guess since really 2008.
22:48Everybody understands that an expansionist China is quite dangerous for all of the countries in the Indo-Pacific and especially India's long term goals of continuing its rise to to be the third largest economy in the world.
23:04Given that Asia is going to be a major export market for Indian companies.
23:11So India is doing everything that's required to achieve that aim. What explains America's changed attitude in the way you look at it?
23:23Yeah, I think that, you know, President Trump is a different type of president. He's very different than than President Biden in numerous ways.
23:31I think that the prior administration really was focused on working to build up India to help its rise and saw its rise as very complimentary.
23:43This president has a different approach to world affairs and thinks that, you know, access to the US market is an asset for other countries.
23:53And he is seeking to leverage that to open up opportunities for American exporters and to align other countries with the foreign policy priorities of the United States.
24:08You know, I'll say this one thing. Ending the conflict in Ukraine is in India's interests.
24:16And so this president has taken a bit of a harder line, of course, with India, with this additional 25 percent tariffs when it comes to Russian oil.
24:24Why did he chicken out with China?
24:27It's a very great point, but I don't think that that's going to go on forever.
24:33I think people are interpreting that as a I think they call it the taco trade here in the United States, where where he he doesn't necessarily follow through on his initial threats.
24:45But below the surface, you know, that that's only going to go on for so long.
24:49There are certain things and steps the United States is taking to reduce reliance on China and to that's not going to go on forever.
24:59And so I do think that you will see increasing pressure on U.S. China ties as well.
25:05But look, the point is more this. We have to separate the actual underlying economic drivers and the political drivers. Right.
25:17Nobody likes to be seen to be pushed around on the world stage. Nobody.
25:21It's why these conversations often happen behind the scenes. Right.
25:24When the U.S. and India were at odds over India's imports of oil from Venezuela or Iran, they were behind the scenes to resolve the situation.
25:32And India reduced its purchases and ultimately stopped buying oil from either of those countries.
25:38The same thing can be done here. It just has to be done in a very different way than it's being done now.
25:43OK, so he's fired the bullet. Now he wants the bullet to be taken back.
25:48Clearly, that doesn't happen. And especially when you're dealing, General Shukla, as you said, with a 5,000 year old civilization, you know, we wouldn't want anyone to lecture us.
25:59We've withstood sanctions before. Not that we would want sanctions.
26:03But this is something when it comes to India's pride.
26:06I'm sure that there is no way that India would want to be lectured, especially when America is following double standards.
26:13And not just with China, with Europe, with America itself, General Shukla.
26:18They continue to buy uranium for their nuclear energy. They continue to get fertilizers and chemicals for themselves.
26:25But they want to lecture us. It just doesn't add up.
26:28It's not only China, Turkey, the shadow fleet, Europe, we know what's happening.
26:36But the other issue is, you know, I would just like to recall, I think to the prime minister in the 2014 campaign trail,
26:43when he was asked about India's foreign policy, he says,
26:46We will neither bully nor get bullied. This must, you know, reach the ears of the Trump administration loud and clear.
26:55You're not going to get bullied. Having said that, these are challenging times for Indian statecraft.
27:01While staying engaged with USA, if things go further astray, what are our options?
27:07There are options. Russia, the Global South, the near hegemon. If the faraway hegemon is acting nasty, there are things we can do.
27:15We are not without options. There are many options with us. We would like to go down that path.
27:19But if pushed, there are huge options for us. One point I would say that we must look at our strategic military capacities.
27:28We are not resourcing them in the manner that we should for the, you know, the challenges that are coming our way.
27:35Last point, I would just like to, you know, examine this nuclear doctrine that Asim Muril unfolded from Florida.
27:41So what was he really saying? He was saying, look, India is committed to NFU.
27:45So India will never use nuclear weapons, at least not in the first instance.
27:49So we will do this terror strike. India will respond conventionally.
27:54We will lose. And when we are getting decimated, we'll blow ourselves up.
27:58I mean, what kind of madrasa nuclear ideology is this?
28:03He's got his strategic plans, divisions, very smart Pakistani officers.
28:07They would be disappointed with this.
28:09I'm surprised that the West and the USA has not condemned this kind of nonsense.
28:14Nuclear deterrence is a very serious matter. Nobody knows it better than the Americans.
28:19Look at the kind of, you know, absolutely outstandingly stupid statements that are coming out.
28:26Not only irresponsible, downright stupid.
28:29I mean, this amazes me to the extreme.
28:32Ambassador Sinha, America claims to be big on nuclear non-proliferation, though its record has been very bad.
28:39It's looked the other way when Pakistan was the nuclear Walmart and America knew it.
28:46Pakistan was, as you know better, sir, you were dealing with Pakistan directly.
28:51Their C-130, imagine an American-made aircraft, C-130 was flying to Iran and America was looking the other way.
28:58It was, deals were being done with Libya, America was looking the other way.
29:03But how do you, one, look at this nuclear threat, the threats that come from Pakistan and how India should actually deal with both these emerging situations.
29:13Gaurav, I like your description of the Walmart.
29:17In fact, I recall I was in, posted in Pakistan when AQ Khan network was active, very active.
29:24And we were aware of what he was up to.
29:26And of course, our friends, our partners in the West either chose to, didn't believe us or chose to ignore it.
29:33I would, I would, I think the second is probably true.
29:37The latter is true.
29:38I think what has happened is saber rattling, nuclear saber rattling is not new.
29:44Pakistan has done it.
29:45Successive army chiefs have done it.
29:48So it's nothing new.
29:49The only problem is that this particular chief, given his background, we shouldn't dismiss it out of hand.
29:56But I like what General Shukla had said about, you know, trying to blow themselves up and take half the world down with them.
30:04That was the most astounding statement that I've heard.
30:07And just one minute, Ambassador, sir, which half?
30:11The American half or the Chinese half?
30:14Probably both, I think, the way a nuclear war pans out.
30:18But one point I'd like to make, you know, that India-US relationship is extremely important.
30:23We must understand that.
30:25And we should not get carried away by sentiment.
30:28We should not throw the baby out with the bathwater.
30:31This is a 17-year moment.
30:33I read somewhere, 1971, when the 7th Fleet was sailing towards the Bay of Bengal.
30:39And you know what happened.
30:411998, after our nuclear test, and now it's 2025.
30:45We rode the storm.
30:47You know, we, there are ups and downs in relationships.
30:50And I like the point that Mr. Slater made, that there are other issues.
30:55It's a very wide relationship.
30:57There are many other issues.
30:59Now, we have to see what will happen now.
31:02Trade, the 25th of August.
31:04If a delegation, if a delegation comes from the US, what will be the outcome?
31:09If the Prime Minister goes to attend the UNGA in September, will there be a meeting with President Trump?
31:15All these are imponderables, which we will have to wait and see.
31:19But one point I wanted to make about the Indus Water Treaty.
31:22I think Mr. Mitra had referred to it.
31:24You know, the dispute resolution mechanism, there are three aspects.
31:28One is the permanent Indus Commission.
31:31The other is the independent monitor and the third, sorry, the neutral expert.
31:37And the third is the Court of Arbitration.
31:39And as you mentioned in your opening remarks, in 2012-2013, I was the co-agent for India at the arbitration at the PCA, the Permanent Court of Arbitration on Kishanganga.
31:50Now, the interim judgment that came after that, we won handedly.
31:55Now, the situation has changed because we have kept, the World Bank did something completely absurd.
32:01They kicked in two dispute resolution mechanisms simultaneously, nuclear expert and a court of arbitration.
32:09And now that we've held the treaty in abeyance, and another thing reacting to Shabazz Sharif, we have not stopped any water.
32:16The water is flowing as it is.
32:18What we do in the future is a different matter.
32:20But till now, we haven't stopped water.
32:22We haven't built any dams on the Indus or Jhelum.
32:26So, what we will do, definitely, and I hope we do, the Tulbul navigation project on the Jhelum must be started immediately.
32:35And that's a navigation project with or without Pakistani objections.
32:39So, we will follow the elements of the treaty as much as it suits us.
32:44Absolutely.
32:45And I don't think we will be held back by either protestations from Pakistan, the objections that they raise all the time, or any sanctimonious lecturing by any permanent court of arbitration.
32:57Sanctimonious lecturing, and why should we?
33:00And I completely agree with all of you that India-US relationship is extremely important.
33:06And that's why both countries in the past 25 years, you know, post-1999 Kargil war, have invested so much in this relationship.
33:16But Alexander Slater, you know, when Prime Minister Narendra Modi visited the United States in February, India was seen as quick off the block, wanted a quick trade deal, a bilateral trade deal by fall, and everything was being put in place.
33:31What I want to understand from you is, one, why did things change?
33:37Two, when you look at three aspects here, in that compact that was signed, that declaration that came, one was technology, the other was strategic partnership, the third was trade.
33:47When it comes to technology, there is science and technology cooperation that's happening, there will be a joint military exercise and India sending a big contingent to Alaska.
33:56Will trade, in your appreciation, come back on an even keel?
34:01Is it just being used this additional 25% sanctions to browbeat India into accepting, you know, some American points?
34:09Or is Trump very clear it's his way or highway?
34:13I think it's probably both on that last point.
34:17I think that President Trump is serious about getting Russia to the negotiating table and is looking for ways to motivate other powers, including India, who talks about a special relationship with Russia, to push Vladimir Putin to that negotiating table.
34:37And again, I think it is in India's interest for Russia's invasion of Ukraine to end and for there to be peace there for a variety of reasons, which, you know, it's why Prime Minister Modi in 2022 said now is not an era of war to Putin directly, you know, right after the invasion.
34:55So again, I think there's alignment there. I think he's trying to motivate India to do more there. And I think President Trump genuinely believes that India's purchases of Russian oil enables Russia to continue on a more aggressive tack towards Ukraine and not come to the table.
35:13So I think there's genuine...
35:14May I just intervene for 30 seconds?
35:16Of course.
35:17Indian purchases from Russia, you say, encourages that war machine. What about American purchases from Russia? Does that deter Russia? What about Europe's purchases from Russia? Does that deter Russia? I don't understand this logic, sir.
35:30So, Gaurav, on this particular point, what I said was I think President Trump believes this. I'm not asserting what is or isn't. I think if you look at the data, the amount of oil that India purchases,
35:43from Russia substantially exceeds...
35:45It's much less, much less than what Europe purchases from Russia in terms of LNG, much, much less in terms of value, in terms of quantities. So I don't understand this logic. I mean, why? I seriously want to know this. Every Indian wants to know this. We want good ties with America, but not these double standards from America.
36:08So, look, I think on these issues, this is President Trump's policy, and I don't work for the administration. I'm here to explain what I think he believes and why he thinks this is important. And again, I think, you know, when it comes to what India can do and where its interests lie, you know, I don't think that the delta between what India buys in terms of Russia...
36:35...of oil from Russia and what it would get on the market price is hugely significant.
36:40But let's put that aside. I mean, I honestly don't think that that's the major point here. I think what you're asking about really is how do these countries come back to the trade table together?
36:52And on that point, on this extra 25%, I think on one hand, President Trump genuinely believes the things that he said about why he's concerned about India's oil purchases from Russia, and he thinks that he can motivate India to put more pressure on Russia.
37:06But I think he also is using it as a way to get leverage at the bargaining table on trade.
37:10Okay.
37:11And, you know, I think that India is responding in a level-headed way, is showing its continued interest in trying to reach an agreement on trade.
37:20I think that, you know, the sides were extremely close, and I think they have a nice framework in place to reach an agreement.
37:27The ultimate outcome is going to depend on both sides deciding that, look, nobody's going to get everything that they want.
37:34And is the long-term health of the relationship more important than being able to come out and say publicly, I won or I dominated?
37:44That seems to me far less important.
37:46But I will take one more point that you made.
37:49It's a very good sign that the two countries remain very well connected on the military-to-military level, that that cooperation continues, that also India continues to work with other allies of the United States, including the Philippines, on strategic cooperation and military ties.
38:09This is what's fundamentally important and creates a broader frame for the two countries to come together on trade as well.
38:17So I'm hopeful for that.
38:19Okay.
38:20Abhiji, you know, with the last 30 seconds I have on this part of the show, is that trust factor, 25 years invested in it, that comfort level, has that been lost?
38:31And a lot then would depend, one, not just on the talks that happened in Alaska between President Trump and President Putin, but also whether the trade delegation comes from the United States around the 25th of August for the next round or sixth round of talks.
38:46Look, we've always been very iffy in our trust factor with the Americans.
38:50Even with the last government, remember, they were undermining us through other resources.
38:55That was much more insidious.
38:56They were using NGOs and, you know, that entire network under USA to undermine us.
39:02This is a much, much more direct two-fro.
39:06The problem is this particular thing, even though it's not that defense sales are embargoed or anything like that.
39:12The problem here is that when you decide that a bilateral relationship depends on a third country, then you fundamentally start attacking the basis of that relationship.
39:26So on one hand, it is not as insidious as what Biden tried to do or Obama tried to do, but it does strike at the root.
39:35So, yes, there is some kind of great unease and a loss of trust.
39:39I think it sets the relationship back.
39:42Can it get back on track?
39:43Is it unrecoverable?
39:44Absolutely not.
39:45One last point, Gaurav.
39:46You know, the the sheer duplicity of the so-called 50 percent tariff is the fact that if India imports Russian oil and processes it,
39:56check annex two of the executive order.
39:59If we export that very oil to America, it is exempt.
40:04Yes.
40:05So, you know, this has nothing to do about stopping the war in Ukraine at all.
40:11This is much more to do with personal peak because of the way the exemptions are, you know, carved out.
40:20They are not to punish Russia.
40:21They are just to punish Indian consumption of Russian oil, not any consumption of Russian oil that helps America.
40:28Or Europe.
40:29You're absolutely right.
40:30You know, I have run out of time on this part of the show.
40:33But General Shukla, Ambassador Sina, Mr. Slater and Abhijit Ayer Mitra for joining me here on this India Today broadcast.
40:40There's a lot happening internationally, globally.
40:43And India is right in the center of this Chakra view of changing dynamics and equations internationally.
40:52To talk more about this and where are we in this Chakra view.
40:57It is my proud privilege to welcome on the Chakra view podcast, Ambassador Kaval Sibal.
41:04So, where do you see India right now in midst of this global Chakra view as we look at America suddenly cozying up to Pakistan and Aasem Munir, you know, is in America for the second time in a couple of months.
41:21The way America calls Pakistan a phenomenal partner in the war on terror and the way 25% plus an additional 25% sanctions have been imposed on a close strategic partner that India is.
41:34Well, you know, we have been through these kind of difficulties in the past.
41:40The country that has sanctioned us the most and weakened our strategic rise in a very material way for a few decades for the United States of America.
41:51After the nuclear deal in 2005, relations began to improve and the United States walked back from those sanctions, realized that they were futile.
42:01Since India had gone nuclear, there was no way that they could push back India's nuclear program.
42:06So they had to reconcile with a new India and potentially much more powerful India.
42:12And since we had also started liberalizing our economy, so they had then an enhanced economic interest in the Indian market.
42:21And then it's around this time, not quite, there were problems that were arising in U.S.-China relations, because China had begun to rise phenomenally.
42:31Yes.
42:32And after Xi Jinping came to power and he unveiled his cards, then it was quite clear that it was not the China of Deng Xiaoping or Hu Jintao that the U.S. was dealing with,
42:45but a much more assertive nationalist China, which has certain ambitions and which had declared that by 2050 they will be at the center of international relations,
42:55which means either equal to or displacing the United States.
42:59So that also increased U.S. interest in India.
43:03And then there was a big change in India-U.S. relations, where today U.S. is our biggest economic partner,
43:10biggest trade partner in goods and services, biggest investor in India.
43:16And so many other agreements have taken place in order to strengthen our defense ties, whether it's the foundational agreements,
43:33or Malabar exercises, or bilateral air naval, sea air naval, land exercises, tri-services exercises.
43:41They named the Pacific Command as the Indo-Pacific Command, there's the Quad, there's the whole Indo-Pacific strategy.
43:49So look at the change.
43:50And now are we witnessing another change all of a sudden?
43:53No, what I meant is that there are these fluctuations in international relations and India has gone through them.
44:01And not only has India survived, but India has emerged stronger.
44:05As the challenges have become stronger, we've had to redefine our own thinking and approach and policies.
44:10And have emerged stronger, as I said, fourth-largest economy this year and third-largest by 2030.
44:18Though, mind you, the gap between us and China or us and the United States is very considerable.
44:24Yes.
44:25But we are a rising market, a huge consumer market, 1.4 billion people, where domestic consumption will go up,
44:34rate of growth, 6, 6 point whatever percent.
44:38Look at the huge prospect other countries have in the Indian market.
44:42I mean, the Western countries in particular.
44:44Therefore, India is going to be very, very important.
44:47Look at Europe.
44:48They are growing at 1%, half percent or whatever else.
44:50True.
44:51And other countries, small countries, they may be growing at a rapid rate, but the market is too small.
44:57China is the biggest defence supplier to Pakistan.
45:02This is a chimera.
45:03This is a kind of a fantasy that some people seem to have with regard to what they can do in Pakistan.
45:11And therefore, there is a big question mark, big question mark, almost unthinkable.
45:17What is the reason?
45:19What is the reason that they are mollycoddling Pakistan, building up Pakistan?
45:24What comes to your mind, sir?
45:25It's obvious, no?
45:26Part of it.
45:27To counter India's rise.
45:28To keep a pressure point on India.
45:30So they haven't changed.
45:31They may call us their comprehensive strategic partner, but their aim is a subservient India.
45:40A servile India.
45:41No.
45:42No, no, no.
45:43They know we can't be a servile India.
45:46Even when we were weak, we were not servile.
45:48So when we are strong, we are not going to be servile.
45:50Certainly not.
45:51I think they understand that.
45:53They understand that.
45:54The previous administration understood it and specifically stated so that we are not looking
46:00for a military alliance.
46:01We know that India is against military alliances.
46:06It's a long game.
46:07Progressively they want to wean away India from its past relationships.
46:11So it's not as if they think that India is a country that can be pressured into doing what
46:17they want.
46:18I think this must they understand.
46:20In order to make sure that India's wings do not grow too large and starts flying up in
46:27the air far too high, they need some pressure points.
46:32So one pressure point is Pakistan?
46:34Pakistan is the most important and the immediate pressure point.
46:37And the other one is Bangladesh now.
46:39That again?
46:40Yes.
46:41Because the manner in which they work for the outside of Sheikh Hasina and got these Islamists
46:50into power knowing fully well that this is what is going to happen.
46:54They opened a new pressure point.
46:56And here's the irony of it.
46:58Who's trying to bring Bangladesh and Pakistan together?
47:05China?
47:06Yeah.
47:07They had a, Wang Yi had a meeting through with both of them and now America has got into
47:10the game.
47:11So both China and United States see indirectly working together to create problems for India
47:17in Bangladesh.
47:18So neither China nor America want India to rise.
47:23Well, you know, want India to rise, India will rise whether they want it or not.
47:30But the point is they must have some levers of pressure and they would like to retain those.
47:36That doesn't mean that they only want to rely on the levers of pressure.
47:40They also have separate vital interests in India for obvious reasons.
47:45So they'll continue to court us and have relationship with us, but not give up.
47:51There are other options.
47:53Now, in a very different way, here we have to be realistic.
47:58We do these things ourselves, don't we?
48:01We want to keep a foot in every door, but not with the same kind of intention of using
48:11leverages to destabilize or put pressure on others, but to protect our interests.
48:17Now, we are very solidly committed to our relationship with Russia, no matter what United
48:22States thinks.
48:24And you're very confident of that.
48:26You've been…
48:27Yeah.
48:28And therefore, United States has been unhappy.
48:30They have been saying that.
48:31And now Trump has brought this issue up in the air once again, rather surprisingly,
48:36objecting to our oil trade and our defence trade with Russia, which means his rankles
48:40within the system.
48:41After all, he's not alone in this.
48:43There must be other people who are also of the same view and feeding this kind of thing
48:48into the system.
48:50So, despite that, India has stood firm.
48:52Now, they can argue that India may have whatever is their views on Pakistan.
48:57But we have our own interests in Pakistan.
48:59Therefore, we will continue to have relationship with Pakistan.
49:01If India doesn't want to think that it has strategic autonomy, then we too have strategic
49:06autonomy.
49:07So, we'll do what we want.
49:09And when…
49:10What did you think of India's statement that when we said America continues to buy uranium hexafluoride
49:15or palladium or chemicals and fertilisers from Russia?
49:19Not a word after that.
49:20Europe continues to buy LNG from Russia and no sanctions on them.
49:26But 25% sanctions on us.
49:28No additional sanctions on China.
49:30So, is he just bullying India?
49:33Yes.
49:34Just pure bullying?
49:35Yes.
49:36Yes.
49:37And the thing is that I was looking at statistics.
49:39I put it on X this morning, I think, or yesterday.
49:43I looked at statistics from 2022 when the Ukraine conflict began and when Europe was applying
49:50all the sanctions that they could possibly think of along with America on Russia.
49:56The total, total import of Russian gas, LNG, and defined petroleum products is $214 billion.
50:08Wow.
50:09And if you look at the LNG imports from Russia, beginning 2022, every year they have increased
50:18by a sizeable percentage.
50:19Absolutely.
50:20Yes.
50:21Right?
50:22Look at the hypocrisy of all this.
50:23Look at Turkey.
50:24It's the biggest buyer of refined products from Russia.
50:27No sanctions.
50:28Japan gets a very sizeable amount of oil from Russia because they were, in fact, partnered
50:35with us in trilateral deals with the Americans in Sakhalin.
50:40They're still getting…
50:41Yes.
50:42Japan, I'm not too sure of the figure, that 8% of the energy needs of Tokyo comes from
50:49what they import from Russia.
50:51So Japan is not targeted.
50:55But India is.
50:58India is.
50:59But why?
51:00And the funny part is, and this you know, I mean, you know as well as I do, and we have
51:05said that officially, that is the Americans who encouraged us to buy, continue buying,
51:12and others too, continue buying Russian oil so as to keep the price of oil globally stable.
51:18Because if 5 million barrels a day went out of the market, that's the Russian oil, then
51:23the price of oil would have shot up to maybe $200, about $50, and would have affected the
51:28American consumer.
51:29So when he knows all of this, yet he says this, does he expect India to just stay silent,
51:37accept it like several countries, you know, Japan is a treaty ally, and it accepted it.
51:42South Korea is a treaty ally.
51:43They have American forces deployed there, and they've accepted it.
51:47European Union, though European Union now is saying, no, we haven't committed the money.
51:52Japan also seems to be furiously backpeddling, saying it's, we may invest.
51:57He just wants that big headline.
51:58Should we also give him that big headline?
52:00See, there's a big difference.
52:02All the three entities you mentioned, EU, South Korea, Japan, they're all dependent on
52:08US for their security.
52:09Yes.
52:10There's a China threat in Western Pacific.
52:12There's no Ukraine war where Russia is seen as a threat.
52:15So they have very little room for maneuver.
52:17We don't depend on United States for our security.
52:20We have more room for maneuver.
52:27We're all insecurities.
52:28We have a long list of other countries.
52:29Oh, the one that's ma-p Subsby, of course.
52:30Nothing.
52:31ged
52:41Cho waist.
52:46That's fair.
52:48undering is implying to the bi Quadro.