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00:00It's a completely ridiculous economic policy, but I would have said that yesterday.
00:22Well, in some ways, I'm not surprised because the president likes to keep people on their toes, keep countries guessing as to what is likely to happen next.
00:36It's also putting pressure on those countries that have yet to sign a trade agreement that there will be consequences if they don't.
00:45It was expected because he said he was going to do it on August 1st and sent out various notices to his social media platform to that effect.
01:01So in that sense, it's not a surprise, but I suppose a lot of people hoped that he would delay.
01:09He delayed the actual implementation until August 7th.
01:17So some countries will probably come in and do deals with him and get slightly lower rates than the ones he announced today.
01:29But it's not a 30-day delay, so I think for most countries, these are the rates.
01:42And for most countries, the flat rate is 15 percent.
01:59Well, I think what is likely to happen because of the additional tariffs combined with the much weaker than anticipated employment report that August once again will likely post a decline for the S&P 500.
02:29It will mainly affect U.S. trade, and it will increase the price on an average basis when these are fully implemented, and that takes time.
02:49But they will increase the average price of imports purchased by Americans by probably around 15 percent.
03:02That's a pretty big increase, and that will show up in inflation later this year.
03:11Certainly by October, November, we'll see it in the consumer prices.
03:19I think the U.S. economy is slowing down anyway because a lot of households are heavily indebted, and the business investment, I know that Trump announces all these deals,
03:45but in fact business investments, but in fact business investment has not been good in the first half of the year because many firms just don't know what's going to happen next, so they delay.
03:58So I think we're headed for a slower period of economic growth and maybe even some drop, some small, a little bit of recession.
04:10Not a big recession, but a small recession.
04:15Well, the global trade as a result of these tariffs will likely end up slowing down.
04:24Yes, inflation will pick up initially, but then on a year-over-year basis will not continue to climb.
04:31But it will likely put pressure on the U.S. consumer, which represents about 70 percent of our economy,
04:38and could end up representing additional pressure on the global economy.
04:43So this year we are anticipating about a 1.9 percent rise in real GDP and a similar number for 2026,
04:53but 2026's forecast obviously is subject to revision.
04:58American consumers are going to pay.
05:14My expectation is that most countries will say it doesn't make sense for us to retaliate,
05:21because if we retaliate against the U.S., that hurts our own consumer, our own industry.
05:29So I'm expecting that the tariffs we see now will more or less be the pathway for the next several months
05:38until Trump gets another brainstorm.
05:40The outlook for the tariffs is that it's really more of a negotiating ploy.
05:48They want to get the other countries to sign an agreement.
05:53But knowing the president, even if those agreements are signed, if he changes his mind, he will push to do so.
06:01I mean, if you take a look at the USMCA, the trade agreement with Mexico and Canada that he signed in his first term,
06:12obviously that was thrown out the window based on his decision, not Canada or Mexico's decision.
06:20So who's to say whether what is agreed now will be in agreement for the remainder of his term in office?
06:31So who's to say whether it's been in agreement for the next couple of years?
06:33So who's to say whether it's agreed to put the tariffs on time?