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  • 2 days ago
A giant asteroid, roughly the size of a football field, was spotted hurtling through space — and for a moment, it looked like it could hit Earth. Astronomers scrambled to analyze its path, and the good news? Earth is safe. But the Moon… might not be so lucky. This video unpacks everything we know about asteroid 2024 YR4, its unpredictable future, and why scientists are keeping a very close eye on it. If you're into space drama, science updates, or cosmic near-misses, this one's for you. Credit:
CC BY 4.0 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/:
2024 YR4: by ESO/O. Hainaut et al., https://www.eso.org/public/videos/YR4-2/, https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:2024_YR4_ESO-VLT.gif
Asteroid 2024 YR4: by ESO/O. Hainaut, https://www.eso.org/public/images/eso2505a/, https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Asteroid_2024_YR4_observed_with_ESO’s_Very_Large_Telescope_(eso2505a).tiff
Isolated Stadium: by mostafasami, https://skfb.ly/oBGr6
Asteroid low poly: by pasquill, https://skfb.ly/oz7ZN
Antarctic Meteorite: by NASA Astromaterials 3D, CC0 1.0 https://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/, https://skfb.ly/oU6TS
separation of LICIACube: by NASA/Johns Hopkins APL/Steve Gribben/Jessica Tozer, https://dart.jhuapl.edu/Gallery/media/videos/DART_AnimatedSequence-2020.mp4, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:DART_AnimatedSequence-2020_from_launch_to_impact_along_with_separation_of_LICIACube.webm
Lunar Impact: by Science@NASA and NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center, https://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/11278
Lunar Exploration: by NASA, https://www.nasa.gov/directorates/stmd/small-spacecraft-technology-program/nasa-cubesats-play-big-role-in-lunar-exploration/
Earth's Trojan Asteroids: by NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center, https://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/12504/
Asteroid Mission: by NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center, https://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/14763/
Armageddon / Touchstone Pictures and co-producers
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Transcript
00:00That tiny dot in the sky is an asteroid called 2024 YR4, and it gave scientists a serious scare.
00:11Early projections showed a 2.3% chance that it could hit Earth.
00:16That might sound small, but for an object big enough to wipe out a city, it was enough to raise alarms.
00:23Now, there's good news and bad news.
00:26The good. It's no longer on a collision course with our planet.
00:30The bad. It might be heading for the moon instead.
00:34Astronomers first spotted it in the Alsos Observatory in Chile back in December 2024.
00:41Judging by how bright it appeared, they estimated its size to be somewhere between 130 and 300 feet wide.
00:49That's about the size of a football field.
00:52If something this big hit Earth, it could be truly catastrophic.
00:56I mean, not on the level of the asteroid that wiped out the dinosaurs, but still enough to destroy an entire city, depending on where it lands.
01:05Drop it over Paris, London, or New York, and you're looking at complete devastation across the city and nearby areas.
01:12That's why it was considered one of the most dangerous space rocks to ever come near us.
01:18It makes total sense that this asteroid became a bit of a celebrity.
01:23From the moment it was discovered up until February 2025, the risk of a collision just kept climbing.
01:28But now, we can breathe a little easier.
01:32New calculations from NASA have completely ruled out any chance of impact.
01:36In fact, there's no serious threat from this asteroid for at least the next 100 years.
01:41Okay, but how did we go from this is a threat to, oops, we were wrong?
01:47That happens quite often, actually.
01:49I mean, an asteroid seems risky at first, then it gets even riskier, and then, out of nowhere, it's suddenly safe.
01:56Does that mean we can't trust their math?
01:59You see, the first time specialists spot an asteroid, it's really just a tiny dot of light in the sky.
02:07At that point, they have no idea what it is or where it's headed.
02:12Then, they have to observe it again and do some math.
02:15That will help them figure out the path they're moving on.
02:18But even then, it's still a bit uncertain.
02:21They don't really know where the asteroid is going, so the risk corridor is this huge area where it could fly through.
02:27If any part of that corridor crosses Earth, the asteroid is considered a threat.
02:34Usually, at least three observations are needed to figure out its orbit.
02:38Basically, how fast it's moving and where it's headed.
02:41A lot of times, as they start to get a clearer picture, the risk zone still overlaps with Earth, so it looks more dangerous at first.
02:49But typically, as they keep tracking it, the risk zone gets smaller and moves away from Earth.
02:54And suddenly, the risk drops.
02:56And they keep narrowing down the uncertainties until they can confidently say,
03:01Relax, y'all. It's not heading for Earth.
03:04And that's exactly what happened to just our famous 2024 YR-4.
03:10So, we can all relax a bit now, right?
03:13Yeah, we know that 2024 YR-4 won't hit us.
03:17But it could end up crashing into the moon instead.
03:20At first, projections said there was a 1.7% chance of that happening in 2032.
03:27But recently, that number has gone up a little to 3.8%.
03:32If it does hit the moon, though, it won't be dangerous for us.
03:37I mean, there won't be any shockwaves felt here on Earth, and the moon isn't going to crack in half.
03:43Experts say nothing really shocking or concerning would happen.
03:47But it would be an awesome opportunity to see a lunar impact.
03:51If we're lucky, we might even catch the exact moment it happens.
03:55And if we miss it, we will still get to observe a brand new crater on our natural satellite.
04:01Such events are pretty common for the moon, since it doesn't have an atmosphere to protect it from incoming debris.
04:08In fact, there are hundreds of detectable impacts each year.
04:13See those bright spots lighting up?
04:15These are real images of asteroids hitting the moon.
04:19But specialists aren't just sitting around and waiting.
04:22They've been keeping an eye on lunar impacts for years.
04:26For example, the European Space Agency has a project called Naliota,
04:30where they use a powerful telescope in Greece to track these impacts.
04:35They've recorded over 100 tiny explosions from space rocks hitting the moon.
04:42They also have the Lumio mission,
04:45which is a small satellite that counts lunar impact flashes on the far side of the moon,
04:50the side we can't see from Earth.
04:52These observations help scientists understand how often the moon gets hit
04:57and how this might affect astronauts and lunar bases.
05:02Now, 2024 YR-4 might be a special case.
05:06That's because most space objects that collide with the moon are really small.
05:11We've never seen a collision with something larger than about 160 feet.
05:17If YR-4 does hit, it could be an amazing sight.
05:22So yeah, scientists are kind of hoping it happens.
05:24But 2024 YR-4 isn't the only asteroid on the radar.
05:30There are actually quite a few others that have been classified as potentially hazardous.
05:36In simple terms, that means this one might cause us some trouble.
05:40You see, there are millions of big space rocks out there in the solar system,
05:46mostly chilling in the asteroid belt between Mars and Jupiter.
05:49But only a few ever get close to Earth, and even fewer actually pose any real risk.
05:55NASA calls asteroids that orbit within 30 million miles of Earth near Earth objects.
06:00And within that group, there's a smaller bunch of really big ones that orbit super close to us.
06:07If one of those were to hit us, it could be a big deal.
06:11There are about 2,500 of those asteroids at least that we know of.
06:17But here's the good news.
06:19Specialists don't expect any of them to hit Earth anytime soon.
06:23A few might come pretty close, though, or already have, like the 2014 TN-17.
06:28An asteroid that's about 540 feet wide.
06:34It got pretty close to us in March 2025, zipping by just 3.2 million miles from Earth.
06:40That's roughly 13 times further than the Moon.
06:43So yeah, not exactly close, right?
06:46But when you think about the vastness of the universe, it's actually kind of near.
06:52In fact, that was the closest this asteroid has come to Earth in nearly 300 years.
06:58Thankfully, nothing happened, and that asteroid has already drifted away from Earth again.
07:03But it's not like you need to lose sleep over asteroids that could hit our planet.
07:07Little asteroids enter Earth's atmosphere every single day.
07:11It's the big ones we worry about, like the ones you see in Hollywood movies, like Armageddon.
07:16But asteroids like that are being constantly monitored.
07:21All the objects we know of today have zero or one chance of impacting Earth.
07:26And if things change, there are a few strategies that could be used to save humanity from an impact.
07:32Take the DART mission, for example, which happened in 2022.
07:36This was NASA's first test of planetary defense.
07:41They successfully managed to deflect an asteroid off its course using a spacecraft.
07:46In this case, the asteroid didn't pose any threat to Earth, but it was the perfect test subject.
07:52There are also more experimental ideas out there.
07:55For example, lasers could vaporize part of an asteroid to create a thrust effect, pushing it off course.
08:01Another idea is the Gravity Tractor, a big spacecraft that slowly tugs the asteroid away using its own gravitational pull.
08:11But all of these are still just ideas for now.
08:15If we can't pull any of those off, authorities would probably still have enough time to evacuate the impact zones.
08:22So yeah, I wouldn't stress too much about an asteroid impact.
08:25That's it for today.
08:30So hey, if you pacified your curiosity, then give the video a like and share it with your friends.
08:35Or if you want more, just click on these videos and stay on the bright side.

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