00:00Hello, and welcome to another update video on Solana.
00:03It's quite interesting.
00:04People are waking up about Solana now that we've moved away from the reversal point in our support area.
00:13It's moved up like 60%.
00:15Other coins have moved up more, but Solana has broken above the upper range boundary,
00:21so has broken above the May high.
00:23And people are getting interested.
00:24I see it in the views.
00:26I mean, the advantage is here on the YouTube channel,
00:28and I've got really a great, I could say, sentiment meter that often works better than any Elliott wave count.
00:34I always notice when we're entering like third wave territory or, you know, when markets are getting heated,
00:40and that is when the views are going up, right?
00:43And they are going up higher than average.
00:46So that's something that we typically see when, you know, the market is in a very, very heated environment.
00:52Not necessarily overheated, but, yeah, a very heated environment.
00:56And pullbacks then are typically due, okay?
01:00But we would need a break of market structure to indicate that a pullback has started.
01:05So a break below support levels at least.
01:07So we're going to take a look at those on the smaller time frame in a minute.
01:11Just want to start here, take a moment on the larger time frame to explain here the potential on the chart,
01:17but also the risks and where things can go wrong.
01:20Now, on this chart, obviously, we're still tracking an active uptrend.
01:23I've been doing so for quite a long time.
01:26We kind of, I think, I can't remember where exactly the support levels were here back in this correction,
01:34but we were tracking this five-wave move up, obviously.
01:39We started to track this quite quickly.
01:41And then once five waves were completed, this support area was put onto the chart between $109 and $144.
01:49So this was our support zone for the current pullback, not for the current pullback, for the last pullback.
01:55The price bottomed exactly where it needed to do.
01:58I mean, it can't really be any better than that, right?
02:01It really, really can't be any better than that.
02:05So it did what it needed to do.
02:07We had a rally and a pullback, and the price landed where it needed to.
02:10So, okay, then we had a reaction to support, and the price has now broken out above the range.
02:16That's a good indication that the third wave is indeed unfolding.
02:20As I said to you before, I prefer the yellow scenario, which would mean that this is a wave one, and this is a wave two.
02:27We're now in a third wave, which ideally should take us close to that $360 target.
02:32And there could be a fourth and a fifth, and yeah, sort of in that area up there.
02:36I could see a potential top form, but it really depends on how the microstructures are now developing.
02:43This is not like a call for a top.
02:46This is just the next milestone target and an area of interest, because various Fibonacci levels align there.
02:52And very often, when that's the case, these levels act like magnets, okay?
02:57So price is obviously starting to move towards that area, and that's pretty much what we want to see, all right?
03:05And what you can see is that the market is currently doing exactly what it needs to do to fulfill that yellow scenario.
03:11Now, there is a risk, which is the white scenario, and in the white scenario, the price would move up in wave C of B.
03:21So it's a larger corrective rally.
03:23But even here, even here, we don't even need to be able – we don't need to distinguish between them right now.
03:29We can't even, right?
03:31Because without a break of support, we can't distinguish between the white scenario and the yellow one.
03:35Someone asked me yesterday about, is the white count bearish?
03:38And I said, long-term, not really, but, yeah, medium-term, because it would likely just be an A, B, C.
03:44And then we need to see if the price can generate an impulsive reversal from down there.
03:48But it would send us back below $100, best I can tell.
03:52So, yeah, the risk is there.
03:54And, you know, there is a potential from the moment when we reach this blue zone – and this is kind of my first target, right?
04:01$250 – when we reach it, the white count tops somewhere from here.
04:06And when we break support levels, that's how we can distinguish between them.
04:10But at the moment – and that's the great – or that was the great situation here on the Solana chart – that we didn't need to distinguish between them.
04:18We still don't need to, right?
04:19Because the setup was shared by both of these, an A, B setup and a 1, 2 setup.
04:24Remember that I said again and again, this was a five-wave move up.
04:27So, after a five-wave move up, we expect a rally in the same direction, at least to the 100% extension.
04:34Yeah.
04:35So, we're not even there yet.
04:37So, the rally is still continuing.
04:39It's all going as planned.
04:40And then when we get into this area, however, that's when we need to really pay additional attention.
04:45Now, looking at the shorter time frame now for Solana, the price is still in this uptrend.
04:51And this is just the short-term.
04:52So, it shows you the short-term patterns.
04:54What I'm tracking – I still track this as a diagonal structure.
04:59You know, maybe I'm wrong about it.
05:00Maybe it is an impulse.
05:01But even if it's an impulse, it doesn't matter.
05:03The support levels are holding either way.
05:05Rather, if I make sure that everybody understands it could be a diagonal, people tend to be a bit more careful, which I think makes sense.
05:11Because, look, the rally here was a three-wave move.
05:15Could be wave one.
05:16This was a wave two.
05:18And then here, this was like a triangle pattern.
05:20So, that looks like a corrective move, but can't really be a wave two or something.
05:29So, you know, it kind of makes sense as a diagonal.
05:32But ultimately, whenever we're dealing with a diagonal structure, different interpretations are possible.
05:36But, again, it's still following the analysis.
05:40We're still going higher according to the structure support levels are holding.
05:44And the wave count on the nano level suggests this is a wave one, this is a wave two.
05:50Wave three, just long enough to be finished, absolutely.
05:53But it keeps extending, which is kind of normal in a third wave, which is why I always say that we can't really guess when a third wave is over.
06:01We can define ideal targets, but extensions are common in third waves, okay?
06:06And when extensions are common, you don't normally want to fight the trend.
06:11You just determine support.
06:13You define what is the key support that needs to hold to keep the uptrend alive.
06:18And then you can just go with the trend.
06:20And you're happy and leaning back.
06:22So, it's entirely possible that we're still in circle wave three.
06:25Actually, I expect that.
06:26And, you know, if it's a diagonal, then we are now in the Y wave of wave three.
06:35And then the Y wave is an ABC structure.
06:37And the C wave is one, two, three, four, five.
06:41Could even get some further extensions.
06:43But, again, we're driving on site because all upside expectations for the third wave are fulfilled.
06:48I just simply need a signal that some kind of a fourth wave pullback has started to be able to call the top of the third wave.
06:55I haven't done that yet.
06:56I'm not doing that until I get some signals for that.
06:58So, for now, the trend is up.
07:00And it takes a break at this point below $188.40 to suggest that the third wave has topped and that a fourth wave pullback has started.
07:08And support for the fourth wave pullback would be between $160 and $176.
07:14But, as I said, there is no sign of weakness right now.
07:16Even just yesterday, Solana reacted to one of our micro support areas and pushed even higher.
07:21So, that's why we've got this upper micro support, which I can call it like that.
07:27These are kind of support areas that, yeah, keep the direct trend alive, you could say.
07:31You know, the direct uptrend alive.
07:34So, you know, as long as we're holding, there is absolutely no signal that we have topped in any way.
07:42So, yeah, that's the update on Solana.
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