Moody’s Warning: US Housing Market Crash? | Real Estate News 2025
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Moody’s Warning: US Housing Market Crash? | Real Estate News 2025
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Is the US housing market heading for a crash? Moody’s issues warning as high prices and rates threaten economy. Watch Fox Business for real-time updates.
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**Moody’s RED ALERT ⚠️** US Housing Market Collapse Coming?
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00:01THE RED FLAGS KEEP POPPING UP FOR THE U.S. HOUSING MARKET, STICKER SHOCK, SKY HIGH MORTGAGE
00:08RATES ARE LEAVING BUYERS FROZEN, SELLERS TRAPPED. GOLDMAN SACHS EXPECTS HOME PRICES TO GROW
00:15JUST HALF OF 1%. THAT IS THE SLOWEST PACE IN 14 YEARS. THAT IS FOR THE ENTIRE YEAR.
00:22AND NOW MOODY'S TOP ECONOMIST SAYS THAT THE HOUSING MARKET HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A
00:28FULL-BLOWN HEADWIND FOR THE ENTIRE U.S. ECONOMY.
00:33JADE, THAT MAKES SENSE BECAUSE IF THE HOUSING MARKET GETS COMPLETELY LOCKED UP AND THERE IS NO BUYING OR
00:42SELLING, THAT DOES HAVE A FOLLOW-ON EFFECT FOR THE ECONOMY BECAUSE WHEN YOU BUY A HOME, WHETHER IT'S A NEW
00:48ONE OR EVEN AN EXISTING HOME, A USED HOME, YOU DO SPEND A LOT OF MONEY TO FIX IT UP OR EVEN FURNISH IT.
00:56THAT'S RIGHT.
00:58YOU KNOW, I THINK RIGHT NOW THERE'S JUST A LOT OF FEAR SURROUNDING THE HOUSING MARKET IN GENERAL.
01:01AND IT DEPENDS ON WHAT PART OF THE COUNTRY YOU'RE IN.
01:03YOU KNOW, IF YOU GO TO SOUTH FLORIDA, YEAH, HOUSES ARE SITTING ON THE MARKET FOR A VERY LONG TIME.
01:07YOU GO UP TO NASHVILLE, YOU KNOW, BUYERS STILL HAVE A LITTLE BIT OF AN EDGE THERE.
01:11SO IT JUST DEPENDS ON WHERE YOU GO.
01:13BUT I LIKE TO JUST ENCOURAGE PEOPLE THAT THERE'S STILL HOPE.
01:16YOU AND I WERE TALKING ABOUT THIS ON THE BREAK.
01:18THERE'S STILL HOPE.
01:19YOU KNOW, THE AVERAGE HOUSE IS SITTING ON THE MARKET FOR, WHAT, 52 DAYS.
01:22SO IF YOU'RE LOOKING TO SELL, YOU WILL GET OUT.
01:25YOU'VE JUST GOT TO BE PATIENT.
01:26AND IF YOU'RE LOOKING TO BUY, YOU'VE GOT TO BE PATIENT AS WELL.
01:29SO REALLY JUST ALIGNING OUR EXPECTATIONS.
01:31I KIND OF FEEL LIKE A LOT OF US ARE JUST REALLY STUCK IN THE PAST AS FAR AS INTEREST RATES AND WHAT WE SHOULD BE PAYING.
01:39AND I THINK THE QUICKER THAT WE CAN JUST ACCEPT WHERE WE ARE AND KIND OF REALIZE THAT WHAT TOOK PLACE THROUGHOUT THE PANDEMIC,
01:46THOSE REALLY LOW RATES AND REAL ESTATE BEING HOT, THAT WAS ABNORMAL.
01:50BUT IF YOU REALLY LOOK BACK FROM THE 70s EVEN UNTIL NOW, WE HAVE, YEAH, THE AVERAGE RATES, 6 TO 8%.
01:56LIKE, THAT'S KIND OF BEEN THE SWEET SPOT.
01:58AND SO THE FACT THAT YOU CAN GET A 15-YEAR FOR WHAT, JUST UNDER 6%, YOU CAN GET A 30-YEAR FOR 6.8%.
02:08YOU KNOW, THAT'S NOT ALL THAT ABNORMAL WHEN YOU LOOK AT THE REALLY, THE GRAND SCHEME OF THE TIMELINE OF HOW THE REAL ESTATE MARKET HAS LOOKED OVER TIME.
02:15AND SO REALLY JUST ALIGNING YOUR EXPECTATIONS AND SAYING IF YOU'RE GOING TO GET IN, GET IN.
02:20AND IF YOU'RE LOOKING AT YOUR EXPECTATIONS SAYING I DON'T KNOW IF I'LL EVER BUY, DON'T STOP TRYING BECAUSE THE TIME IS GOING TO PASS ANYWAY.
02:27SO IF YOU JUST START SAVING, EVENTUALLY YOU WILL GET TO 20% OF THAT DOWNPAYMENT THAT YOU NEED.
02:31YOU SAID INTEREST RATES NEED TO COME DOWN.
02:33DID YOU SAY THAT IN THE A BLOCK?
02:35I SAY HOUSING PRICES NEED TO COME DOWN.
02:37I'D LOVE THAT.
02:38I'D LOVE THAT.
02:39I'D LOVE THAT.
02:40I'D LOVE THAT.
02:41WE NEED TO STOP FOCUSING ON INTEREST RATES BECAUSE THE PEOPLE WHO ARE SELLING, THEY ARE LOCKED INTO SOME
02:46FANTASY THAT, OH, I NEED TO MAKE THIS MUCH ON THE SALE OF MY HOME.
02:50MY HOME IS WORTH X.
02:52YOUR HOME IS WORTH X AT A 5% MORTGAGE, BUCKO.
02:56THERE'S NO GUARANTEE THAT YOU'VE MADE 40% IN THE LAST THREE YEARS.
03:00YOU NEED TO LOWER THOSE PRICES.
03:03AMEN.
03:04BUT CAN I SAY THAT'S WHY I SORT OF DISAGREE WITH THE ECONOMIST WHO'S WARNING ABOUT THIS BEING A DRAG.
03:10BECAUSE WHAT YOU ARE SEEING IN THE MARKET IS PRICES COMING DOWN IN A LOT OF MARKETS ACTUALLY.
03:16AND YOU'RE SEEING MORE INVENTORY OUT IN THE MARKET.
03:18AND YOU'RE SEEING LOWER EXPECTATIONS ABOUT PRICE INCREASES.
03:22SO ALL OF THAT IS GOOD BECAUSE IT DOES ACTUALLY PREVENT THE MARKET FROM SEIZING UP.
03:27NOW, YOU MIGHT NOT GET THE SALES PRICE THAT YOU WANTED, BUT I THINK A LOT OF THOSE EXPECTATIONS ARE INFLATED.
03:33BUT YOU'RE GIVING YOUNGER BUYERS THE CHANCE TO GET INTO A HOME.
03:37I THINK THAT'S BEEN THE DRAG ON THE ECONOMY.
03:39I THINK THAT FEELING LIKE I CAN'T LIVE THE AMERICAN DREAM, AND SO I'M GOING TO GO, LIKE, SPEND MY MONEY IN OTHER WAYS TO MAKE UP FOR THE FACT THAT I CAN'T BUY HOUSE.
03:48I THINK THAT'S A DRAG ON THE ECONOMY.
03:50AND THE FACT THAT THE MARKET IS STARTING TO WORK LIKE IT OUGHT TO WORK IS A GOOD SIGN FOR HOUSES.
03:57AND I WOULD SAY IT WILL GET BETTER.
03:59RATES DON'T HAVE TO COME BACK DOWN TO 3%.
04:01IF THEY COME BACK DOWN INTO THE FIVE AND A HALF RANGE OR EVEN LOW SIXES, I THINK THAT'S GOING TO SPARK A LOT OF ACTIVITY.
04:08YEAH.
04:09CAN I PUSH BACK THOUGH ON WHY WE ASSUME IT'S THE AMERICAN DREAM AND FEEL FREE TO DISAGREE WITH ME.
04:15I'VE BEEN A RENTER, A HOMEOWNER, AND NOW A RENTER AGAIN.
04:19AND I WAS TOLD BY MY PARENTS, HOMEOWNERSHIP IS THE AMERICAN DREAM.
04:26BUT I GO BACK AND FORTH ON THE MATH.
04:28IF I TIE UP MY EQUITY IN MY 20% DOWN PAYMENT, I WAS ONE OF THOSE THAT HAD TO CUT PRICES BECAUSE I WAS FORCED TO MOVE OUT OF 600 SQUARE FEET.
04:38BECAUSE FOUR PEOPLE AND 600 SQUARE FEET IS A LOT OF PEOPLE.
04:42BUT I'M LIKE, YOU KNOW WHAT, HAD I JUST INVESTED THAT 20% DOWN PAYMENT IN THE MARKET, I WOULD BE WEALTHIER NOW.
04:49YOU KNOW, AND SO WHY ARE WE SO CAUGHT UP THAT THAT HAS TO BE THE AMERICAN DREAM?
04:53WHY CAN'T I BE A RENTER AND USE THAT DOWN PAYMENT AS INVESTMENT IN THE S&P 500 AS SAVINGS?
05:00AND SO THAT'S WHERE I SORT OF, I COME DOWN ON BOTH SIDES OF IT, AND I'VE BEEN ON BOTH SIDES OF THE STORY.
05:05BUT I'M NOT SURE THAT, LIKE, HAS TO BE EVERYONE'S DREAM.
05:08WELL, YOU MAKE A GOOD POINT, AND I THINK THAT THERE CAN BE SOME PROS AND CONS TO THAT.
05:12I MEAN, MY FIRST THOUGHT IS, YEAH, IF YOU'RE TAKING THAT MONEY THAT YOU'RE SAVING, IF YOU'RE ACTUALLY SAVING MONEY ON RENT,
05:17BECAUSE RENT PRICES ARE VERY, VERY HIGH.
05:20AND SO IN MOST AREAS, THEY'RE LOOKING TO BUY SO THAT THEY CAN LOWER THAT LINE ITEM ON THEIR BUDGET.
05:25AND THEN LONG-TERM, TAYLOR, I WOULD SAY THAT, YOU KNOW, THAT'S THE MOST, THE HIGHEST LINE ITEM ON YOUR BUDGET,
05:32AND IT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE THE MOST VARIABLE.
05:35AND SO GOING INTO LATER YEARS, WHEN YOU GET INTO YOUR 60s AND YOU'RE HITTING RETIREMENT,
05:39YOU WANT TO STABILIZE THAT NUMBER AS MUCH AS POSSIBLE.
05:42AND HOMEOWNERSHIP IS THE WAY TO DO THAT.
05:44OKAY.
05:45WE HAVE SEEN THAT OVER TIME, THE QUICKEST WAY TO BUILD WEALTH IN AMERICA IS THROUGH HOMEOWNERSHIP.
05:50IT'S THAT COMBINATION OF 401K CONTRIBUTIONS AND HOMEOWNERSHIP.
05:54NOW, I DO THINK THAT THERE IS SOMETHING TO BE SAID THAT IF YOU HAPPEN TO BE IN ONE OF THOSE UNIQUE POSITIONS
05:59WHERE YOUR RENT HAPPENS TO BE LESS, MAYBE YOU'RE LIVING AT HOME WITH A FAMILY MEMBER,
06:03YOU KNOW, THAT SITUATION WHERE YOU ARE PAYING LESS SOMEHOW BY RENTING AND YOU ARE INVESTING THE DIFFERENCE,
06:08HEY, I THINK THAT'S AMAZING.
06:10BUT THERE'S SOMETHING TO BE SAID FOR DIVERSITY IN THE WAY THAT YOU'RE INVESTING THAT MONEY.
06:14AND NOBODY CAN ARGUE THAT REAL ESTATE IS A GREAT INVESTMENT.
06:17AND I WOULD JUST ADD TO THAT.
06:18I THINK IT'S AN INDIVIDUAL DECISION.
06:19IT DEPENDS ON YOUR PERSONAL CIRCUMSTANCES, WHERE YOU ARE IN LIFE.
06:22LIKE, I HEAR YOU ON INVESTING THE DOWNPAYMENT IN THE MARKET AND YOU PROBABLY WILL MAKE MORE MONEY THAN I WILL DOING THAT.
06:29BUT I BOUGHT MY HOME AFTER HAVING CANCER AND A BROKEN ENGAGEMENT.
06:32AND I JUST NEEDED THE SECURITY OF HAVING A HOME AND FEELING LIKE, YOU KNOW,
06:36IT WAS MINE AND SOME LANDLORD WASN'T GOING TO JACK UP MY RENT IN A CITY WHERE RENTS WERE GOING SKY HIGH
06:41AND JUST THAT I WASN'T GOING TO HAVE TO MOVE AGAIN.
06:43AND SO THERE WERE A LOT OF DIFFERENT FACTORS.
06:45AND BELIEVE IT OR NOT, EVEN WITH THE HIGH PRICES AND THE LOW INTEREST RATE,
06:49I STILL PAY LESS NOW THAN I WOULD FOR AN EQUAL APARTMENT WITH RESPECT TO WHAT RENT WOULD BE.
06:54BUT THIS IS ALSO NEW YORK CITY.
06:56IF YOU LIVE SOMEWHERE ELSE, THE MATH MIGHT NOT WORK THAT WAY.
06:58SO I JUST THINK EVERYBODY'S GOT TO LOOK AT THEIR PERSONAL SITUATION AND TRY TO MAP IT OUT.
07:03WE'VE ALSO SEEN HISTORICALLY MUCH HIGHER INTEREST RATES THAN THIS.
07:07TYPICALLY AT THAT TIME YOU'D SEE THE PRICES COME DOWN MUCH MORE THAN THEY HAVE COME DOWN.
07:11SO I WOULD SAY IF YOU FEEL LIKE ME AND YOU WANT TO HAVE THE AMERICAN DREAM OR THAT IS YOUR DREAM,
07:16THEN YOU HAVE TO ADJUST YOUR EXPECTATIONS.
07:19MAYBE AT 6% YOU CAN'T AFFORD THE SAME SQUARE FOOTAGE THAT YOU WOULD HAVE LIKED FIVE YEARS AGO.
07:23AND THAT'S OKAY TO SAY I'LL GET A STARTER HOME NOW AND MAYBE SELL IT IN A FEW YEARS AND FIX IT UP
07:28AND DO A BUNCH OF STUFF AND MAYBE GET SOMETHING NICER.
07:30SO I THINK PEOPLE JUST GET STUCK IN WHAT THEY THINK THEY SHOULD HAVE NOW AND THAT'S WHERE THE TROUBLE STARTS.
07:36I'LL ALSO CAUTION PEOPLE THAT THE COST OF HOMEOWNERSHIP HAS BECOME ASTRONOMICAL IN COASTAL AREAS
07:43BECAUSE OF THE INSURANCE AND IT MIGHT NOT BE RIGHT FOR SOME PEOPLE TO TAKE ON THAT BURDEN.
07:51AND IT IS YOU CANNOT EVEN CALCULATE AND ANTICIPATE SOME OF THE FUTURE COST OF SAY LIVING IN A COASTAL AREA OF FLORIDA.
08:01AND I ALWAYS BRING THIS UP.
08:03I JUST GET BACK TO WHY DO INTEREST RATES NEED TO COME DOWN TO SUPPORT HIGH PRICES
08:08AND TO SUPPORT SOME IDEA ABOUT WHAT A HOMEOWNER SHOULD HAVE MADE IN A BUBBLE IN THE LAST FOUR YEARS.
08:20BECAUSE BASICALLY LONG RUN SHOULD GO UP RIGHT WITH THE INFLATION RATE.
08:26SO IF YOU GO BACK TO JANUARY OF 2000 AND WHERE HOME SHOULD BE BASED ON JUST INFLATION IN THE LAST SINCE 2000, 25 YEARS,
08:40OVERVALUED, HOME PRICES NATIONWIDE NEED TO COME DOWN ABOUT 29% TO 30%
08:48BASED ON WHERE THEY SHOULD BE VERSUS INFLATION.
